Let's have a clear comparison of 5 days to go, 2016 and 2020 - it really is starkly different

[NRaleighLiberal]

The differences show up in the national numbers more than in the states, below - I'd love to see the FL and NC leads larger (PA too)

In 2016, 5 days before the election (which was November 4) - info from 538, the polling aggregator

Chance of winning

Hillary 64.5%
Trump 35.4%

2020 (tonight's data)

Joe 89% (Joe has a 25% higher chance to win)
Trump 11%

In electoral vote projections - 2016

Hillary 291
Trump 247

2020 (tonight's data)

Joe 347 (Joe has 56 more EVs projected)
Trump 191

Projected popular vote - 2016

Hillary 48.5%
Trump 44.5%

2020 (tonight's data)

Joe 53.5% (Joe is running 5% better)
Trump 45.5%

Some key states - 2016 final poll before the election

FL Hillary +.7
NC Hillary +.7
WI Hillary +5.3
PA Hillary +3.7
MI Hillary +4.2

2020 - from today - 538 number and Economist number (two numbers, below)

FL Biden +2, +3 (Joe is roughly 2% better)
NC Biden +2, +2 (Joe is between 1-2% better)
WI Biden +8, +8 (Joe is roughly 3% better)
PA Biden +5, +6 (Joe is roughly 2% better)
MI Biden +8, +8 (Joe is roughly 4% better)

Using Rove's "we can steal it if it is within 3%" adage, FL and NC are the most at risk.

[DonaldsRump]

1. Excellent and thank you

This is 2020, not 2016. Trump has to defend his abysmal record for 4 years rather than purporting to be an outsider like in 2016.

If (and to me the chances are basically zero, so I treat this as an academic discussion) Trump were to win, it means this country is FUBAR'ed. Our family will then make the necessary choices we need to make.

[NRaleighLiberal]

2. If trump wins, he cheated (or others cheated him to victory). Period.

He was not legit in 2016. It would be unspeakable if it happens again.

[Bleacher Creature]

3. I'd add one more - polling has changed in response to 2016.

Based on everything I've read - and I don't really know the details - pollsters have adjusted their models so that they don't make the same mistakes they made in 2016. Put another way, I trust a 2% lead more today than a 2% lead from four years ago.

[Dem2]

5. An unknown factor

Certainly hope they overcompensated and we're doing post-election analysis of how we were more anxious than we needed to be.

[mr_lebowski]

4. Let me fix these for you, in a manner of speaking :)

In 2016, 5 days before the election (which was November 4) - info from 538, the polling aggregator

Chance of winning

Hillary 64.5%
Trump 35.4%

2020 (tonight's data)

Joe 89% (Joe has a 168% greater advantage than Hillary had)
Trump 11%


Projected popular vote - 2016

Hillary 48.5%
Trump 44.5%

2020 (tonight's data)

Joe 53.5% (Joe has 100% greater advantage than Hillary had)
Trump 45.5%

Some key states - 2016 final poll before the election

FL Hillary +.7
NC Hillary +.7
WI Hillary +5.3
PA Hillary +3.7
MI Hillary +4.2

2020 - from today - 538 number and Economist number (two numbers, below)

FL Biden +2, +3 (Joe is roughly 200% better per 538)
NC Biden +2, +2 (Joe is between 200% better)
WI Biden +8, +8 (Joe is roughly 50% better)
PA Biden +5, +6 (Joe is roughly 35% better per 538)
MI Biden +8, +8 (Joe is roughly 90% better)

[NRaleighLiberal]

6. love it, my friend!