Regarding early voting

[matt819]

The numbers have been striking. Has any analysis been done of who early voters voted for? More than anecdotal. Any polls of early voters? Any form of “exit polling”? Just a random thought before I go to sleep.

[elleng]

1. No 'exit' voting,

as still 'absentee'/early etc, so not apropos for polling; just counting absentee/early ballot requests and returns, I think.

[HelpImSurrounded]

2. Some states report party registration

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/index.html

At one point Dems were leading 2:1

[Drb2072]

3. The election is over

I've done the analysis and modeling you ask about on the "swing" states that report early/mail votes by party, as mentioned.

My conclusion?

It's over. Shhhh don't tell too many people.

The easiest and most striking is PA. A state with about 700k more registered members of the Democratic party than of the Republican party. Thus far, there are nearly 1 million more Democratic votes than Republican votes by mail. At absolute best, there will be 5 million election day votes in PA (and that would crush turnout records).

So Trump would need to win Election Day 60/40. He'd have to win independents 2:1 and take about 15% of the votes of registered Democrats to pull that off. Biden is polling 94/4 among Democrats and 51/39 among independents. The polls might be wrong, but there is no likelihood they are THAT wrong, particularly with independents.

FL will be close and it will come down to election day turnout for Trump. The same is true for IA and AZ.

NC has a very similar (though not as stark) reality as PA. Trump needs 2:1 indies and +15% total turnout R v. D. (i.e R turnout 85%, D turnout 70%).

It is different than 2016. Since we can see votes by party, we get a lot more insight into the actual results weeksdays before we did in 2016. These aren't polls. They are VOTES.

Everyone can Ceh, Ceh, Cahlm down.