General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region Forums"Don't sweat the polls" - five reasons why this isn't like 2016.
1. In 2016, the pollsters totally whiffed on the Great Lakes states. In 2020, theyve changed their methods.
2. In 2016, a ton of undecided voters broke late for Trump. In 2020, most of those voters have already decided.
3. In 2016, we had the mother of all October surprises. In 2020, we have the most stable race in decades.
4. In 2016, district-level polls indicated a last-minute Democratic collapse. In 2020, they indicate Democratic strength.
5. In 2016, there wasnt a global pandemic. In 2020, there is a global pandemic.
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/10/five-reasons-to-believe-2020-wont-be-a-2016-sequel/616896/
This article eased my anxiety a bit.
BootinUp
(47,156 posts)Fiendish Thingy
(15,619 posts)Fiendish Thingy
(15,619 posts)Hyper_Eye
(675 posts)I like your #6 addition though. It is a very important data point.
List left
(595 posts)They can't seem to control nonstop face planting.
tRump
fleur-de-lisa
(14,624 posts)Thats so refreshing. Its frustrating when an OP mentions ## fabulous things you have to know right now then neglects to include them due to the 4 paragraph limitation.
If youre reading DU on a cell phone, it can be a pain in the rear to click on every link to read the full article.
Your summary is perfect!
regnaD kciN
(26,044 posts)I have no doubt that, in a normal election, we'd be looking at a Biden rout. But, thanks to the pandemic, this isn't a normal election, but one where, most likely, a majority of the votes will be cast by mail, in a nation where most states have never had to contend with so many -- and, more to the point, where it's pretty well recognized that a majority of the votes for one side will be cast by mail, while the other will be at the polls. That means that the chances of invalidated primarily-Democratic votes goes way up, even assuming everyone is acting in good faith and those are all caused by innocent voter errors. When, in addition, the other side has a hegemony on power and is actively trying to pull every trick in the book to prevent those votes from being cast/counted, it's a whole new ball game.
Dem2
(8,168 posts)I know we're not supposed to rehash this, and it's just as well everybody has forgotten, but there was a whole thing about Bernie supporters not voting (or worse, voting for Satan.)
KY_EnviroGuy
(14,492 posts)KY........