Jon Ralston's latest Nevada Early Voting Blog - 10/29/20 - 11:00 pm

[RandySF]

Updated, 11 PM, 10/29/20

Another 30,000 voted in Clark today, with GOP winning by 2,500 -- 11,8K to 9,3K. If past is prologue, will be offset by mail overnight. I'll let you know in the AM.

By the time mail comes in, my guess is, about 700,000 ballots will have been cast in Clark. That's two-thirds of the vote or thereabouts.

Washoe hasn't posted, and I need rest.

More in the AM.



https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/the-early-voting-blog-3

[Thekaspervote]

1. I'm going to have to stop reading Jon Ralston's blog posts

I have followed him for years, he’s everything Political in NV but, he’s driving himself and everyone else nuts this year. All over the place causing such uncertainty. Guess it’s to be understood considering that the voting pattern he’s used to seeing has been turned on it’s head

[Awsi Dooger]

2. Ralston typically has a very easy evaluation

Nevada is unlike any other state in the country. There are only three main variables and all of them are incredibly consistent and predictable:

* Washoe is near 50/50
* Democrats dominate Clark County
* Republicans dominate the rural cow counties

Consequently all Ralston ever has to do is estimate the Clark margin in relation to the rural margin, while giving an occasional glance to make sure Washoe isn't doing anything funny.

Thats it. I've always like the guy ever since I lived in Las Vegas and read his articles along with watching his early evening interview program. But the praise he receives in relation to degree of difficulty is warped to the extreme.

Ralston actually made far more mistakes in 2016 than Nate Silver ever did, yet somehow Ralston receives overwhelming praise while Nate was condemned. Ralston misjudged the rural numbers so badly he never thought Trump could cut the margin like that on election day. Meanwhile Nate had perfectly described all the variables in the nationwide race, the reasons Hillary was vulnerable in the electoral college and therefore only a moderate 2/1 favorite. That is indeed insignificant degree of favoritism, for anyone who understands probability. It is equivalent to a 5.5 point favorite in the NFL.

This year Ralston is dealing with more twists and uncertainties than he's accustomed to, so he's more erratic and hesitant. But I love his snarky attitude, especially with MAGA types.