Charlie Cook: Don't expect a contested election

[brooklynite]

National Journal

On a hundred-odd Zoom meetings, webinars, and conference call speeches that I’ve participated in over the past two months, virtual attendees continue to raise the possibility of a contested presidential election, even though the chances of that have been getting smaller all the time. Every day that Trump remains behind in the polls, outspent badly and with the early vote gushing in, the cone of uncertainty narrows, and the odds of such an upset goes down.

Joe Biden’s path to 270 electoral votes seems pretty straightforward: Hold all 20 states (plus the District of Columbia) that Hillary Clinton carried four years ago, which total 232 electoral votes, just 38 short of the majority threshold of 270. Then win each of the three states that Clinton lost by eight-tenths of a point or less: Michigan (0.2 percentage points) Pennsylvania (0.7), and Wisconsin (0.8). That gives him 278 electoral votes, eight more than needed. Biden will likely also carry two congressional districts that eluded Clinton in 2016, Nebraska’s 2nd District and Maine’s 2nd, giving him 280 electoral votes. That would represent a “skinny” Biden win.

A big Biden win would bring in Arizona, Florida, and North Carolina, and might also include one or two states from the next tier, mostly likely Georgia or Iowa, although don’t count out Ohio or Texas. Generally speaking, Trump is underperforming his 2016 pace by 3 to 8 points, depending upon the state or district.

The RealClearPolitics average of national polls pegs Biden’s lead at 7.4 points, 51.1 to 43.7 percent. But that’s a less discriminating measure, including as it does some mediocre surveys, some that seemed congenitally slanted toward one side or the other, and some that would be better utilized lining hamster cages. The FiveThirtyEight modeled average of national polls, which is more selective than the RCP average but still includes some surveys that I consider rather sketchy, puts the Biden lead at 8.8 points, 52 to 43.2 percent.

[samnsara]

1. just hope hes not behind the scenes bribing or threatening state delegates

[Sherman A1]

2. I hope Charlie Cook is correct

we will see.

[AleksS]

3. Trumps behind in pace for voting...

But ahead in pace for cheating, so
I won’t stop gnawing my fingers until Jan 21!

[groundloop]

7. Exactly. I'll finally be able to relax when Joe's hand is on that bible come Jan. 20th

[katracey]

27. dont be surprised

Dont be surprised if after the election, and Biden is beyond 270, that Trump comes up with an excuse or 2 to take a vacation trip....to the Ural mountains, Russia...... I think he would resign, allow Pence to take the shit for 2 months, pardon Trump for any wrongdoing, al live in a chalet with russian pee girls, Putin and others.... Melania would have divorced him Nov 8th.....hahahahaha

[AleksS]

28. Once his usefulness is over, all he has left are vulnerabilities

So I don’t care much to lay odds on his health in Russia.

[AZ8theist]

31. Yes Donald...

Try soup!

Is good, da?

[llashram]

34. this

[lagomorph777]

4. I find his evaluations of RCP and 538 very interesting.

Pretty much in line with my own (non-expert but political junkie) opinions.

Somebody here at DU pointed out that The Economist has a very clean polling average on their site.

[Johnny2X2X]

5. He's been pretty good

Here's some of his analysis of 2016.

https://cookpolitical.com/index.php/analysis/national/national-politics/what-2016-elections-taught-us-about-uncertainty

Biden leads by more right now in virtually every swing state than Hillary did. It's going to take some funny business for Trump wo win PA, MI, or WI this time around.

[groundloop]

8. I'm still not totally convinced there wasn't funny business in one or more of those states in 2016

[scarytomcat]

23. of course there was

they were stolen

[questionseverything]

30. 2/3 of Detroit precincts had more votes than voters

According to Michigan law when that happens the result the machine spit out stands.

Wisconsin does not allow hand counts, Clinton didn’t sue to get a hand count, I believe that was a mistake. I hope the Democratic Party has learned.

[AleksS]

11. But there will be funny business.

Trump told us he’s doing shenanigans
Huckabee told us they’re doing shenanigans
Everyone in the GOP has said “Ha! We’re pulling some shady ass shit! Wacha going to do about it?”

It’s funny, the differences between the parties. We’re hoping we got enough votes to win and they’re hoping they cheated enough to win. We’re working to get more votes than 2016, and they’re working to cheat harder than 2016.

And no one seems to see a problem with that. It’s just reported like business as usual.

I’m surprised it’s not being reported as:


Fox News: “Is it fair that Democrats get so many votes that they’re FORCING the GOP to cheat just to keep up? You decide!”

[Kitchari]

16. Yes

Well said

[bucolic_frolic]

6. I just think they should focus on any and all backups

to Pennsylvania.

[Gothmog]

9. I hope that Coo is correct

[kwijybo]

10. I have to call BS on Charlie Cook

I don't care if Biden wins each and every state by huge margins, Trump is going to contest the election. "All of those wins were voter fraud!" will be the cry. He's already set the stage for that to happen.

The only way he won't contest it is if HE wins.

[judesedit]

14. He probably will do that knowing that's how he got in in 2016.

When I saw the final map with so much red, I knew immediately there was a lot of vote switching going on. That's why people are using paper ballots and voting early this time. And that's why rethugs are so nervous. They don't want us to be able to vote. That's the only way they've been able to stay in power. They're crooks through and through. Good riddance.

[AleksS]

15. I don't think that's why he was setting up voter fraud allegations.

I still believe he was setting up the allegations to:

1) cover up the fraud HE’s doing, and
2) get us on record denying voter fraud is happening (thus vaccinating against his fraud), and then
3) get us on record saying we’ll unquestioningly accept whatever results are posted.

Because the more we say that “vote by mail is safe” and “there is no fraud” and “peaceful transfer of power” the less likely we are to contest his cheating if he manages to pull off enough to actually win.

I guarantee he is cheating his considerable ass off, across the board, right now. But Joe can beat him by more than the cheating margin—I’m sure of it!!

[Norbert]

18. That has been dump's MO for some time

1. Make a big deal out of Joe smelling a child's hair by a man fighting sexual assault allegations.
2. The Democrats are committing voter fraud, says a man who has been advocating voter suppression and voter intimidation.
3. Hunter Biden has been taking money from foreign businesses, from a man who has been compromised by his immense debt and has brought nepotism to levels never seen before by a president.

[AleksS]

19. Exactly! Why does it keep working??

Every damn thing he accuses other people of doing HE IS DOING!

Trump accusations=Trump confessions!

[wnylib]

25. That was Bush Jr.'s MO, too.

Plus, a game of opposites. As soon as Jr praised an organization and promised them additional funds to continue their good job, you knew they had a huge budget cut or shutdown looming.

Must be written down in the Republican book of commandments. 1. Thou shalt con the public by doing the opposite of what is promised. 2. Thou shalt accuse the opposition of all thine own misdeeds.

[Ford_Prefect]

32. The MSM helped convey that mythology, repeating anything Trump and his minions say without question.

No matter the lunacy, or the obvious fraud, or the propaganda the Networks still pushed the headlines first forcing the perspective that because He or They said it there must be some truth to the position or remarks. When editors and writers further leave out supporting or contesting facts in their reporting we are left with an informational vacuum and a floating headline.

[llashram]

35. this

and for 4 long dreary, dystopian years.

[OLDMDDEM]

29. Sorry

I have to disagree. If Rump loses beyond the recount requirements for each state that would possibly be challenged, he's toast. Nothing could be more satisfying.

[My Pet Orangutan]

12. RCP includes Rasmussen shite.

And Mark Penn's Harris surveys.

[NightWatcher]

13. Every map I see and when I play with the interactive maps, Joe STARTS at 270

And he tip toes up near 375 without any surprising/big Dem wins.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

17. If he steals any of these which are still looking good..weve

Got options to make it up

[Martin Eden]

20. Trump will declare victory

Trump will declare victory the night of November 3rd regardless of election returns and cry fraud when those returns point to a Biden win -- especially if counting mailed ballots takes several days.

Whether Trump can actually "contest" the election with any legitimate chance of success is another matter.

Let's remember that Trump's world exists in an alternate reality where facts are fake and truth is whatever he wants it to be, with tens of millions of devoted fans.

These two worlds will collide next week and perhaps in the weeks and months to follow if Trump and his enablers in the federal and state governments go all in to sustain this POtuS.

UNLESS Joe Biden's victory is too overwhelming for those enablers to stick their necks out for an obviously hopeless cause.

Nevertheless, Trump and his most psychotic followers will likely persist no matter what. The question is how soon their howls can be ignored and we move on with repairing the damage.

[llashram]

36. 35-40%

of the american public follows the pervert squatting in the WH. Does that me 35-40% of the voting public is racist? Stupid? Ignorant?

[Martin Eden]

38. Multiple Choice

... would include people who've been conned by decades of Fox News and rightwing talk radio.

[Soxfan58]

21. Replying from Maines second congressional district

Don't count on this 1 electoral vote. I live in Trump hell! Probably 2-1 trumps favor with yard signs.

[Roisin Ni Fiachra]

22. Seriously? If he trusts Trump to do the right thing,

he is clearly a fool.

Statistics are meaningless with regard to Trump accepting the results, in a banana republic like the US, where corrupt, malicious fascists control the courts, and laws, decorum, reason, and precedent are routinely ignored and flouted with disdain by Trump, leaders of the Republican party, and partisan, corrupt federal judges.

We need to be prepared for anything and everything. Walk softly, and carry a big stick.

It can happen here.

[llashram]

37. true

nothing should be taken for granted by the crew in the WH. They are truly corrupt and the fascists guiding them and protecting them-him the last 4 years is my worry on this Election Day eve. Should be a few unprecedented weeks of confusion and chaos. This transition will not be like anything ever experienced in this country, excluding Civil War I.

[HermitageHermit]

24. The pollsters and procrastinators were wrong in 2016

Here in the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania, the experts on election night said that if Clinton won Philadelphia by 400,000 votes, she will be in the clear to coast to victory. Clinton won Phila. with a 478,000 vote margin and still lost.

The question as to the accuracy of the polls depends on whether the pollsters learned anything in the past 4 years.

[riversedge]

26. @paulkrugman Whoa. Charlie Cook really sticking his neck out here, with a pretty much unambiguous pr

I will not rest easy until
Wednesday
, January 20
2021 United States presidential inauguration


[if biden wins]






Paul Krugman
@paulkrugman
Whoa. Charlie Cook really sticking his neck out here, with a pretty much unambiguous prediction of a Dem sweep. Bear in mind that his outfit has access to a lot of district-level polling that's better than the publicly available material. But ... 1/

Link to tweet

?s=20



Paul Krugman
@paulkrugman
·
2h
Replying to
@paulkrugman
There's still a possibility of a stolen election: on election night Trump still ahead in states that haven't yet counted mail-in ballots, and a partisan Supreme Court finds some excuse to stop the counting[b]. 2/

Link to tweet

?s=20

Link to tweet

?s=20

Link to tweet

?s=20

[BainsBane]

33. I needed to read this

Thanks for posting.