Keep your eyes on Texas but not the prognosticators

[HelpImSurrounded]

This morning Forbes ran an article ( https://www.forbes.com/sites/chuckdevore/2020/10/29/trump-by-a-landslide-in-texas-early-voting-numbers-are-diverging-strongly-from-the-polls/?sh=303b08751fca) suggesting a Trump landslide based on early voting data compiled by NBC (https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-elections/texas-results).

There are too many new variables going on, though. The massive increase in voting in Harris county due to officials there tearing down voter suppression barriers, the blue wave moving up from the south, etc.

But my local observations tell me it's anybody's race. I am seeing far more blue signs in my deep red town in a deep red county than I've ever seen before. Yards which I KNOW are typically GOP are either silent or showing blue. The most notable is my neighbor who was a GOP CANDIDATE and caucus chair a few years back. His yard is more blue than mine. I have my Biden signs but he has gone full blue.

So Forbe's predictions based on past behavior are very very uncertain.

My fingers are crossed, my toes are crossed and, based on my ulcer I think my intestines have twisted themselves into a lovely braid. Even my face is blue from hlding my breath.

Just a few more days... breathe.... breathe...

[redstateblues]

1. Hmmmm

[Wounded Bear]

2. Turn Texas blue! nt

[AmericanCanuck]

3. Biden will win Texas. Chill.

[Tommy_Carcetti]

4. Hopefully Texas will be house money.

Gravy.

The cherry on top.

You get it.

[PCIntern]

5. Gee...the OP poster's chance of serving on a jury is 22%

Wonder why that might be?

🥺

[Laura PourMeADrink]

8. People don't always want to hear opposing opinions?

[PCIntern]

10. All of us have been subjected to post deletion and punishment thereof

I’ve been here 16 plus years and you have to be pretty counter-culture to get a 22% rating. Just saying....

[HelpImSurrounded]

11. Or not here very long. I mostly watch and read rather than post.

[qazplm135]

6. Two points

1. Even if Texas stays red, which the polling average says will happen, so what? It was always a cherry on top and a way to drain money and attention away from other battleground states.

2. The author is a conservative. Using his numbers, Trump should have won by more than nine last time. I also wonder what the partisan breakdown of Beto's three point loss was. I'm guessing not much different than now.

[BruceWane]

7. Look closer

This isn't a "Forbes prediction".

It's an opinion piece by a "Forbes contributor". Dude that wrote it is VP of "The Texas Public Policy Foundation", which is a republican think tank.

I read the article anyway. His suggestion of a Trump Texas landslide relies entirely on some very optimistic assumptions, mainly that every Texas voter who previously voted in a republican primary is now going to vote for Trump.

Really. That's it.

That is the entire basis of his "landslide" prediction.

In my opinion, yet another republican cheerleader who overestimates his own cleverness by 75%.

[HelpImSurrounded]

12. Good points.

I'm reading faster than I'm analyzing and the disinformation here is pretty high.

[beachbumbob]

9. like everyone forgot 2018 election even happen with all this nonsense

[Gothmog]

13. Texas has already exceeded its 2016 voter turnout

Texas is a battleground state and we should win a good number of downballot races no matter what

[Marius25]

14. That early voting chart by Targetsmart

is trash. Even Dave Wasserman said it was nonsense. Texas doesn't vote by party registration. There is no way to know which party is leading in the early vote. But since we're seeing massive turnout in the major cities and suburbs, Republicans are definitely not winning 60% of the early vote.