Jon Ralston's Nevada Early Voting Blog - 10/30/20 - 6:40 a.m.
Good morning, fellow ravenous data types.
Clark mail, following a familiar pattern, offset (and more) the advantage the GOP had in mail Thursday. The total Clark firewall ticked up a bit to 76,000. About 687,000 have cast ballots in Clark, so that Dem lead is about 11 percent, or close to the Democratic registration advantage in Southern Nevada. That’s about what the Dems were at the end of early voting in 2016 – right about at registration, although the advantage in Clark was about 3 points higher in 2016.
No Washoe numbers yet this morning.
Dems won’t get to the extrapolated number – 87,600 – this cycle, but they almost surely will be at the registration advantage – 11 percent or so. This is why, I repeat, their voter registration efforts are so important every cycle – that 5 or 6 percent edge statewide is meaningful, even decisive, when it comes to elections.
Today is the last day of in-person voting before Tuesday. It’s usually a huge day for the Ds, but not sure what that means this year? Can they win in-person voting in Clark? Or just minimize their losses and make up for it in a mail deluge?
I’d guess the latter.
Today is when the state celebrates Nevada Day (it's actually tomorrow), a state holiday, so that may increase turnout. Happy Nevada Day (celebrated), everyone!
More later…
https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/the-early-voting-blog-3
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