Trump's chances hinge on a polling screw-up way worse than 2016

[Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin]

President Donald Trump still has a path to a second term. But it would take a polling debacle that would make 2016 look like a banner year.

According to a series of battleground state polls conducted and released in the week following the last Trump-Biden debate, the president’s chances of winning a second term now require winning states where he still trails with only days to go until voting concludes.

In most of the core swing states, Joe Biden has maintained a stable — though not overwhelming — lead over Trump in polls over the past few months, continuing into the final week of the election. Some of the state polling averages have tightened slightly since the last debate, though Biden remains consistently ahead. In three live-interview polls of Florida all released on Thursday, Biden led Trump by between 3 and 5 points.

In some of the potentially decisive states, like Pennsylvania, the polls would have to be wrong to a significant greater — greater than the errors in 2016 — for Trump to win. The latest polling averages show Biden with a 5-point lead.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/trumps-chances-hinge-on-a-polling-screw-up-way-worse-than-2016/ar-BB1axh20?li=BBnb7Kz

[beachbumbob]

1. the polling was NOT screwed and I hate reading this time and time again

[ScratchCat]

8. Seriously, its old

The national poll showed Clinton winning by 2% +/-, which is what happened.

Polls in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin were within the margin of error, and they went to Trump.

The polling was correct, people just don't understand how to interpret margin's of error.

[kimbutgar]

2. Please stop we don't need this now

I’m stressed out enough about this election.

[Eid Ma Clack Shaw]

4. I (partially) disagree

Polls could be on the money, but the Trumpdiciary and DeJoy's sloth-like postal service doing all it can to limit mail voting in key states could, combined with the inevitable 1-2% of rejected ballots, be all he needs.

[d_b]

5. We're looking at record turnout

And I don’t see how that benefits Dump.

[madaboutharry]

6. ON MSNBC, Charles Cook explained that the mistake was under polling non-college educated White men.

Cook is a very serious commentator and he seemed very convinced that the errors made in 2016 polling have been corrected. He also seemed convinced that Biden was going to win and that it was going to look closer to 1980 than 2000.

Stephanie Rhule was interviewing him and she looked so happy after that interview!

I felt better too.

[AmericanCanuck]

7. Biden is going to win

Take it to the bank.