TPM Marshall "Steel Your Nerves"

[NRaleighLiberal]

https://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/steel-your-nerves

We are truly in the time that tries everyone’s nerves. Most of the indicators look very promising for Joe Biden and Senate Democrats; House Democrats will almost certainly expand their majority. But elections are inherently unpredictable, especially in this election whether novel and improvised ways of administering elections create inherent uncertainty and one side is placing its hopes on making voting as hard as possible.

A few thoughts on what I’m seeing.


The first thing is that Joe Biden appears to be 8 or 9 points ahead of Donald Trump and consistently place at 50% or above in national polls. If those numbers are basically accurate Joe Biden will almost certainly win the electoral college and become the next President. You can win the popular vote and lose the electoral college. But it’s hard to do both if your popular vote margin is that high or close to that high.

National polls are often off by two or three percentage points in either direction. But even assuming Trump betters those numbers by that much he’s still left probably too far behind to win. The number of undecided voters is also much lower than in 2016 and in most national polls Joe Biden is at or above 50% support. Those are each big differences from 2016.

snip (talks about what's going on in swing states)

last part

We talked a couple days ago about probabilities and consequences. My only advice in getting through these final days is this. You’re about to see an avalanche of ad hoc and anecdotal data, much of which will frighten you, some of which will cheer you. Most of it really won’t tell you that much. It’s important to keep an eye on the big global information, the best though imperfect information we have, which is polling nationally and even more in key states. That data suggests the following: that Biden is in about as good a position as he could realistically be in. Not a done deal by any means. But about as good as you could hope for. The downsides re the novel methods of voting and the federal courts. The upsides are that the number of undecideds are much fewer this year than in 2016. That was Hillary Clinton’s achilles heel. There were a large number of undecideds. So even though she was ahead if a larger number broke against her she’d lose. And that’s just what happened. That factor is very different this year.

Could things go wrong? Yes. But they probably won’t.

[DeminPennswoods]

1. Americans who voted just did not like Hillary

It wasn't her fault. But this is what 30-40 years of rw attacks accomplished. She wasn't a bad candidate, just wrong place, wrong time. Dems are loathe to admit that though.

[Kitchari]

2. I appreciate Josh Marshall's comments

Thanks for posting - he is consistently a voice of reason

[NRaleighLiberal]

3. .

[Kitchari]

5. Back at ya

[BannonsLiver]

4. Ignore the doom trollers/Putin bots

They are everywhere.