Jon Ralston's latest Nevada Early Voting Blog - 10/31/20 - 10:00 p.m.

[RandySF]

I am going to assume for the sake of the initial model that Washoe is very close – the last two cycles indicate it is highly unlikely that either side wins by a lot, so let’s say it is very close. So the question becomes for Trump whether he can win by enough in the rurals to offset Biden’s advantage in Clark.

Here's where the math gets very difficult for him.

If Clark (at only 75 percent turnout) has 900,000 voters, Biden has to figure to win it by at least 10 points – it is hard to believe he would do worse than Clinton’s 11-point win in Clark. That’s 90,000 votes. (I think Clark turnout will be higher.)

So how does Trump get to 90,000 in the rurals? Remember he won by 40 points in 2016 and his margin was 58,000 votes. There are now about 40,000 more voters on the rolls, and I still think he tops out at about 80,000, so game over. But could he get to 90,000?

Here’s how hard that is:

If rural turnout is 80 percent, Trump would need to win the rurals by 50 points. Forty was unlikely in 2016; 50 seems crazy in 2020.

If rural turnout got to 85 percent, which I would say is not impossible, Trump would still need to win by more than 45 points. (Right now, GOP ballots are at 55 percent and Democrats at 22 percent.)

Of course, if you think Biden is not going to win Clark by 10, the math changes – 9 points at minimum Clark turnout would be 81,000 votes in Clark. But it also changes the other way if Clark gets to 950,000 turnout and Biden wins by 10; then Trump would need 85 percent turnout in the rurals and a 50-point win.

So you can do all the rejiggering you want with the numbers, but unless Trump can win Washoe by 5 points or so – and no one I know thinks that is likely (indeed they think it’s more likely that Biden wins there by 5) – there is almost no reasonable scenario in which the president can offset Biden’s Clark margin.

Sure, maybe Clark will collapse for Biden or the rurals will have 90 percent turnout. In either of those scenarios, Trump would probably win. But neither seem very likely.

I want to see a little more data before I say for sure, but the math is the math.

I’ll do a deeper dive and look at down-ballot races Sunday.



https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/the-early-voting-blog-3

[Cicada]

1. The new 40,000 voters in the rurals came from California, many will vote for Biden

Trump won the rurals in 2016 by 40 points. Statewide 40% moving to Nevada come from California. Of the 40000 new rural residents Trump is not going to maintain a 40 point advantage among any group of former Californians. So I think his margin in the rurals will decline. So more reason to expect a Biden win in Nevada.