Final NYT/Siena polls: Biden +6 in PA & AZ, +11 in WI, +3 in FL

[Drunken Irishman]

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2020/presidential-polls-trump-biden#our-final-nyt-siena-polls

[My Pet Orangutan]

1. Indeed.

[Dem2]

2. K&R

[bucolic_frolic]

3. Even worst case from what I can tell

If Biden wins AZ WI MI MN NC ... we're in, that's over 270. AZ and NC with single digit leads.

That is without PA FL TX IA GA and even NV.

I know, anything can happen, but tell me how Biden loses all of the second group plus NC and AZ.

It would have to be a multistate disaster that is not being picked up by pollsters.

[GoCubsGo]

4. The only one of those that surprises me is Arizona.

It still kind of floors me that Arizona could very well go blue. I hope Biden/Harris and Mark Kelly have long coat tails. The same goes for the others, as well. I really hope Wisconsin is coming out of its Koch Brothers-induced stupor.

[hlthe2b]

6. I think Arizonans really resent how Trump treated McCain. Like when you disparage your spouse--

but no one else damn well do so. Perhaps it will be McCain's revenge--even while John never did make the move away from the Rs. Given Cindy essentially has with her endorsement of Biden, I don't think the late Senator was all that far behind--even if he would likely never have left the party. (and no, I'm not engaging in a recreation of McCain nor revisionist history. I remember quite well what he did and did not do in the Senate).

[GoCubsGo]

7. Yeah, that could be a huge part of it.

Doug Douchey also handled replacing McCain quite poorly. I know most Arizonans absolutely did not want Martha McSalley in that seat, and yet he went ahead and appointed her. Ducey is a big Trump-humper, and there could be some flashing of the middle finger to him over that, as well. I know some of their GOPer Congresspeople have been under investigation for corruption, and perhaps they're just getting fed up with that party. Hopefully, they're having flashbacks to the days when they elected great people like Morris Udall, rather than crooks like McSalley, Lesko, Schweikert...

[grantcart]

12. AZ has been purple for some time

AZ currently has 5 Dems in Congress versus 4 Republicans

In 2018 AZ elected an openly bisexual Democrat to the Senate

In 2016 Trump won narrowly with only 49%

In 2012 Romney won but carried a large Mormon population and was perceived as a westerner.

In 2008 McCain won his home state.

Currently both houses are controlled by Republicans by just a few seats and are likely to flip.

Both Phoenix and Tucson are so heavily Democratic that Dems run unopposed.

Having said the above Dems can win with the right candidates. Sanders would not only have lost in AZ by double digits and pulled down the entire ticket


AZ is basically 1/3 Den, Rep, Independent and likes candidates who buck their party.

More than half the Republicans are in the bat shit crazy wing of the party which helps us.

It will be close but my guess is Biden 50 Trump 47 others 3%

[GoCubsGo]

13. Most of my family is in Phoenix.

It is not "heavily Democratic." Their congressman is a Republican. He will probably get reelected again.

[grantcart]

15. You are obviously conflating the city of Phoenix with one of the suburbs

There are only 2 CD that cover Phoenix
.CD 7 Gallegos D who won with 85% of the vote
CD 9 Stanton D who won with 61% of the vote

The mayor of Phoenix is Gallegos ex wife and her closest contender is another Democrat.

You are referring to one of the 3 Republican CD in Maricopa County currently held by Republicans, who retain their non Phoenix seats with narrower margins and one of them could flip this time


The city of Phoenix is roughly 20+ Democratic, the rest of Maricopa County is roughly 15+ Republican but that is going down every election.

[GoCubsGo]

16. No. I am not. Spare me your lectures. nt

[grantcart]

18. lol OK I will bite which Republican Congressman represents the City of Phoenix?

Before you embarrass yourself further why don't you use this map:

Which shows that City of Phoenix is covered by only 2 CDs, 7 and 9.

https://www.govtrack.us/congress/members/AZ#map

If you answer the idiot Gosar district 4 your answer is wrong because that is Prescott area not Phoenix
If you answer the idiot Biggs district 5 your answer is wrong because that is Gilbert area not Phoenix
If you answer the idiot Schweikert District 6, NE suburbs is wrong because that is NE Maricopa not Phoenix
If you answer the idiot Lesko District 8, your answer is wrong because Peoria not Phoenix


As for actual voting results Clinton handily took the City of Phoenix and Tempe (home of the U of A)

https://agadjanianpolitics.wordpress.com/2016/12/30/city-level-voting-in-maricopa-county-az/

Unsurprisingly, Clinton won the college town of Tempe by a 25-point margin as well as the large city of Phoenix by 11.2 points. However, Tempe also had the lowest voter turnout of all the cities examined here, with just 56 percent of its residents voting.

As to the original point that Phoenix is represented by 2 Democrats that won by landslide margins, those numbers actually understate the actual Democratic margins because both CD also include suburbs that lean Republican outside the city of Phoenix.

In my part of Phoenix Biden signs out number Trump signs 50 to 1.

Waiting with baited breath for you to identify the Republican Congressman that represents Phoenix, it will be news to the people of Phoenix.

You are as patronizing as you are uninformed about the City of Phoenix and Maricopa County. The consensus opinion of both Republican and Democratic pundits is that Biden will win Maricopa county (with the Republican suburbs). The only point of contention is whether it will be enough to offset the heavily Republican rural areas.

[hlthe2b]

5. Iowa is not that different from Missouri--the home of my grandparents from decades past

and a state I felt some kinship to from childhood. But it nearly always breaks my heart even if they on rare occasions elect a Democratic Senator or Governor. There are some kindly sincere people there, but traditions die hard--especially among those rural farmers. Kansas City, MO is so very different, but those rural areas overwhelm any progressive movement.

[Peacetrain]

8. Looks very good for us DI!! Thanks for the post

[WinstonSmith4740]

9. I'm feeling really confident...

538 is pretty much saying it's locked up, but still a 10% chance of a Trump win. Of course, there's the ghost of 2016 over our shoulders. I really just don't see a return to that though. I can't see enough Democrats crossing over to vote for him like they did (for some reason) in 2016. And there just aren't "shy" Trump voters. Those lunatics are proud of voting for him. Hopefully people learned there are some things you don't "roll the dice" on, and effective leadership should be at the top of the list. But there will be interference and we can't underestimate the depths to which these people will go to hold onto power.

[DeminPennswoods]

10. The PA margin is consistent with the

last 3 polls (Muhlenburg/Morning Call, F&M, Quinnipiac) of +5, +6 and +7 respectively.

[triron]

11. Very good especially if likely voters.

[theglammistress]

14. I'm confident Biden will win at this point

I've spent the last 5 days or so on an emotional roller-coaster, flipping back and forth. But the poll data has been consistent for weeks. The media desperately wants a horserace so people will tune in. At this point, I think there will be polling errors in the blue favor, kind of like 2012. Polls underestimated Obama back then. That was a fast, decisive win. Hopefully that is what we get in the early morning hours of Wednesday.

The only thing to worry about now I think is how Trump acts/reacts and what his supporters do between now and when the race is called.

[yellowcanine]

17. Wisconsin is great bc it has been a problem for Dems for a long

time. Tommy Thompson and then Scott Walker. Still has a Repub legislature I believe. Maybe a big Biden win changes that?

[Blue Owl]

19. K&R

[helpisontheway]

20. I hope Biden wins NC or something too so Trump can't play games with PA while votes are being

counted.