What do we make of Texas?

[Dr. Jack]

I've mostly ignored the idea of a blue texas this year since it seems to be a pie in the sky dream for the Democrats. I remember in 2016, when I was living in San Antonio, I was excited about the idea of maybe, just maybe Clinton winning the state. Obviously that didn't come close to happening. So overall I've been a bit weary.

However, finally my interest is piqued again. The polls showing a tie or even a Biden lead there is definitely different from 2016. The voter turnout that will likely be millions of votes higher than 2016 is quite shocking. I can't imagine millions of new voters or people who sat out in 2016 are going all in on Trump. In other states, like Florida, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, people who didn't vote in 2016 but are voting in 2020 are backing Biden by 10-20 points. Why would texas be different? There is also a point I read last night night where Romney won the state by 16 in 2012, Trump in 2016 by 9, and then Cruz in 2018 by 2. Clearly the Dems are gaining ground over time. Polls from those years also show the Democratic vote was underestimated. So a Biden tie there could be a win...maybe. And of course there are sites like Cook Political Report calling Texas a pure toss up.


I don't know. What do we make of Texas this year? It is a mirage for the Democrats or is Biden actually going to win there?

[getagrip_already]

1. With or without 130k harris county votes?

Just askin for a friend.

[Laelth]

8. At the moment, the Courts say those votes WILL be counted.

That could change, of course, but the voter turnout in TX is unprecedented, and there’s every reason to believe that Biden can carry TX, even without those votes.

-Laelth

[Chipper Chat]

2. Beto is trying.

may the AnnRichards Force be with us.

[beachbumbob]

3. Hillary lost by 800,000 in 2016, Beto lost by 200,000, geometry and graphs indicates direction

and why Texas turning blue is more real than not in 2020

[BlueTsunami2018]

4. Still too much suppression there I think.

One day Texas will flip but I just can’t see it this year. Once it does, it’ll be near impossible for another Republican to ever win the Presidency.

[JI7]

5. Beto O'Rourke gets the most Credit for Texas . Hoping Biden wins but even if he doesn't

the work that Beto and others are putting into the state and will continue to do will make it closer to moving towards Democrats in the future.

[LizBeth]

23. +1, for sure, Beto has been awesome and at it a long while.

[MerryBlooms]

6. It's an amazing shift for us to be this close. I'll probably fall off my chair if Texas goes Biden!

[Laelth]

7. Turnout has been unprecedented.

Biden can win TX. In fact, Hegar trails Biden in the polls in TX. We have a better chance of grabbing TX’s electoral votes that we do of unseating Cornyn, sadly.

-Laelth

[Klaralven]

9. Texas has been growing fast due to net migration, especially into the Dallas Fort Worth suburbs.

[LisaL]

10. It's slowly turning blue.

Republicans can no longer consider it a safe state.

[uponit7771]

11. Texas has been purple for the last ten years, bout to turn blue cause Harris and Tarrant county

[MoonRiver]

13. Also, Travis county, nt

[KatyMan]

18. And Blue Fort Bend nt

[Demsrule86]

12. It is like Virginia...it will go at some point and looking at the numbers...this could be the year.

[DFW]

14. The Republican governor and AG have been working overtime to suppress Democratic votes

They wouldn't bothering if they weren't scared of a Democratic victory wave. Biden, Hegar, Davis, Valenzuela, Seikaly--none of them would have made Abbott or Paxton raise an eyebrow a year ago. Now they jump in terror at the mention of any of those names.

[My Pet Orangutan]

15. What do we make of Texas? THE FUTURE

of the Blue States of America.

[pecosbob]

16. Don't focus on the national races...we only need nine seats to make the state legislature blue

Think about that...

[In It to Win It]

17. I, like you, have also mostly ignored the idea until recently

Before the 2018 election, I never saw Texas turning blue until at least 2024. I always thought it was possible but a few election cycles away.

In 2018, actually seeing Beto give Ted Cruz a real run for his money changed my mind a little bit. I’m still a little skeptical of whether Democrats can win in Texas but there has been a shift in Texas. More Democratic-voting people have moved there over the last few years. More people are getting active in the voting process.

I don’t know if this is the big year that Texas becomes blue but it’s on the way there.

I just think about how Virginia was a reliably red state until it wasn’t. Texas is going through the same phase that Virginia went through a decade ago.

[honest.abe]

19. I think its going to happen.

We are about to witness a blue tsunami across this nation.

[My Pet Orangutan]

20. A BLUE STATE ON THE MAKE !!!

go Texas !

[SKKY]

21. If Texas flips Blue, I will run down my street, butt-ass naked, kicking over...

....every trump sign (And there is a fairly non-trivial about of them where I live), and yell "Bye Felicia!" at the top of my lungs.

[Happy Hoosier]

22. Not ours yet, I think.

I hope to be surprised, but this still feels a little out of reach for us.

I think voter suppression efforts will make it tend to make results slightly more red than the polls.