TX-31: Carter moves from 'Likely' to 'Lean' R

[RandySF]

DC Democrats wrote off this fast-growing exurban Austin seat when computer engineer and first-time candidate Donna Imam won the July Democratic runoff. Imam, who grew up mostly in New Zealand, has eschewed consultants and refused newspaper interviews, supports Medicare for All and has called for COVID lockdowns without exceptions for grocery stores.

But the I-35 corridor is poised for explosive turnout, and Carter could get caught napping if Trump fails to carry the seat. The 78-year-old beat Democrat M.J. Hegar by just 2.9 points in 2018 and hasn't run any negative ads, allowing Imam to run almost totally under the radar. The irony is that if Hegar were running against Carter again instead of for the Senate, she could be headed to Congress.



https://cookpolitical.com/analysis/house/house-overview/final-house-ratings-democrats-poised-expand-majority-10-15-seats

[TwilightZone]

1. That's the district next door.

Hegar very likely would have beaten Carter this time. Similar to my thoughts on the 10th, a more-experienced politician with better backing, and Carter is probably toast. I'm not downplaying Imam - it's just very difficult for political newbies to challenge the entrenched GOP in these gerrymandered districts.

This and the 10th are perfect examples of understanding that all districts are not alike and then finding/supporting Democrats who can compete in them. A couple of more-seasoned politicians and 31 and 10 are very likely ours, kicking out long-time GOP Reps. We might win them anyway, though the polls haven't been terribly optimistic. Turnout, however, has been crazy here.