Why Iowa Is in Play

[PatSeg]

The state is fighting Covid-19 outbreaks, and the president’s neglect has not gone unnoticed — especially among older voters. We are also still recovering from a devastating derecho this summer, which compounded the challenges wrought by the president’s trade war with China.

The trade war ruined relationships that had been generations in the making. Mr. Trump also granted waivers to big oil companies from biofuel requirements, which undermined the ethanol market — something of a political third rail in Iowa. That, combined with lower fuel demand as a result of the coronavirus and the trade war, has caused plants to close and job cuts. (Under pressure from Iowa lawmakers, the administration reversed course in September.) Farm debt is expected to rise 4 percent, farm bankruptcies continue to rise, and farm organizations post suicide hotline numbers. The president’s trade and farm-policy failures may have also hurt Joni Ernst, an incumbent senator in a tight race with a Democratic challenger, Theresa Greenfield. Ms. Ernst damaged herself badly in a recent debate, when she flubbed an answer on the price of soybeans (her opponent aced a similar question on corn).

snip

Many farmers remain loyal to the president. A saving grace for them has come in the form of farm aid, a not-so-subtle bribe of tens of billions of dollars from Mr. Trump. A farmer friend tells me that the latest round of payments came faster than any payment he has ever received; normal procedures seemed suspended. A little math, a signature and a direct deposit payment — all in time for Election Day.

snip

But most farmers want trade, not aid. Unfortunately, a lot of the aid is going to larger operations and not helping the family farms nearly as much as it could.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/02/opinion/iowa-trump-biden-2020.html?campaign_id=39&emc=edit_ty_20201102&instance_id=23708&nl=opinion-today®i_id=144275770&segment_id=43165&te=1&user_id=9300c9e86795a856411ac8bf084cff8b

Much more at the link. I'm not counting Iowa out as yet.

[beachbumbob]

1. The secret biden voters in the trump households can impact outcome

[Wounded Bear]

2. I've been saying for a while, there are more "shy Biden" voters than shy Trump...

Trump voters tend to be in your face assholes. I'm hoping for a big hidden Biden surge.

[PatSeg]

4. I agree

Many Biden supporters don't want to deal with Trump supporting relatives, friends, and co-workers right now. It is so exhausting and rarely productive.

Also many Biden supporters are reluctant to put bumper stickers on their cars or signs in their yards for fear of vandalism.

Oh well, we'll know soon enough!

[BComplex]

3. Iowa would be great...especially the senate! But I'm really hoping for Ohio.

They're having some of the same issues as Iowa.

[PatSeg]

5. Yes

Many Ohioans have gotten screwed over by Trump much like the farmers in Iowa.

[Wounded Bear]

7. Not a lot of EV from Iowa, but I would love the symbolism of flipping the state...

I feel the same about Utah.

[empedocles]

6. Longtime friend, had Agway shop for awhile, a Republican, often questioned

the common sense of his farmer patrons.

[Iowa farmers, this year?]

[Brainfodder]

8. Going with: 4 years of not exactly winning?

for some degree of wokeness?