If there are a LOT of really close states tomorrow night ...

[Jeebo]

... and if they ALL go for President Orange Con Man, that will be a dead giveaway that the fix is in. Six or seven straight CLOSE states ALL falling in the con man's column will be like tossing a coin six or seven times and it coming up heads every single time. Pull a coin out of your pocket and toss it six or seven times and you'll see what I mean. If that happens, we'll need to examine the coin closely, because it's probably heads on both sides.

As President Orange Con Man has said often, and to paraphrase in such a way as to turn his own words against him, the only way the con man can win is if the election is rigged -- in his favor.

-- Ron

[Statistical]

1. States aren't (independent) coinflips.

I don't think Trump will win but that kind of thinking setup false expectations in 2016. States are semi-dependent events. If the polling is off in one state it is likely off in similar states and by similar amounts.

In 2016 people went there is no way Trump could possibly win because if the chance of him winning PA was 1 in 10 then the chance of him winning PA, MI, and WI has to be like 1 in 1000 so Clinton has a 99.99% chance of winning. If they were completely independent events (like seperate flips of a coin) it would be but they aren't. The same polling which was off in PA was also off in MI and WI. Once Trump exceeded polling expectations in any one of those three states it was very LIKELY he would in all three states and he did and by the tiniest margin won all three.

Now the reality is that in 2020 Biden has both a massive and wide lead. The polling would have to be off by an utterly catastrophic amount in 2020 for Trump to win. However in other elections and in future years thinking states are completely independent like coin flips or dice rolls will only set yourself up for tears.

[kurtcagle]

3. Sort of

If you toss a coin seven times, your chance of landing all heads is 1/2^7 or 1/128. It's unlikely (less than a 1% chance) but it does happen. However, keep in mind that there are usually clusters of states which tend to vote in sync. Pennsylvania, Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin usually tend to vote the same way, Iowa and Ohio are pretty similar, Arizona and Florida tend to have many of the same demographic patterns. North Carolina and Georgia will likely go the same way.

In other words, if Trump takes Pennsylvania, he's probably also taken most of the rest. On the other hand, if Biden takes North Carolina, he also has more than likely taken all of the rest. My suspicion is that Biden WILL take Pennsylvania, the Midwest and Arizona, while Georgia, North Carolina, Ohio and Florida are more iffy. Texas is unlikely, but would be a real sock in the eye if Biden wins it. So the chance that Trump could take all of these is about 1/10, slim, but not out of the question.