Weren't polls amazingly accurate before the advent of electronic voting machines?

[wackadoo wabbit]

I seem to recall that that was the case.

[JI7]

1. Before smart phones, social media, people texting etc . Things are just different, They can still do

polling but they will just have to study things more and change things to account for differences .

Another thing is that polling gets a lot more attention in the media these days than it use to. We have 24 hour cable news and social media so people may purposely mislead about things.

[Spider Jerusalem]

2. You're thinking of exit polls

actual polling hasn't been too great since a majority of Americans stopped having landline phones.

[applegrove]

5. This time the pre-election polls were used like the exit polls in 2004.

Seems shy republucans just can't help from lying making it look like a democratic sure win come election day, motivating republicans to get out and vote all the while relaxing democrats. In 2004 it was called the 'shy elephant' phenomina and it was exit polls that were punped up. That is lying. Kerry was given the win by 2PM on election day. Thise exit polls were wrong. Bush ended up winning. Nobody would publish actual exit poll vote tallies in elections after that. This time we were warned of 'shy republicans' a week or so before election day. Once again republicans were obviously lying to pollsters en mass. The common denominator is Karl Rove running both elections for the Republican presidential incumbants. We are going to have to ignore polling in elections to come. Or make them illegal.

[Doremus]

13. Is there any proof of the veracity of this "shy Republican" theory?

Anecdotal of course but I haven't met a repuke in my life that I would call "shy."

And using their presumed existence to outlaw polling reminds me of how Trump claims we have higher Covid numbers because we do more testing.

No, this isn't something to cavalierly dismiss without a thorough investigation, imo.

[applegrove]

16. The use to word "shy". They are planned and coordinated liars who answer polls

with the wrong info.

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

3. Is it the voting machines or the influence of social media, or

other sociological factors and influences like conspiracy theories, or all of the above?

[ZZenith]

4. Yes, though some here are very quick to assure you that it's the polling that must be flawed.

Couldn’t possibly be the “virtual ballot” counting devices, manufactured by companies whose owners are decidedly right-wing and deemed to be “proprietary code” and not available for public scrutiny, all sent to some “central tabulator” they keep behind the curtain.

It’s fucking Lucy with the football.

[Tribetime]

12. 👍Exactly

[uponit7771]

6. K&R,

[EndlessWire]

7. When I voted

someone stopped me and warned me that when she voted, the machine printed a blank ballot. She got to correct that error. But, the machines are not infallible.

[MFM008]

8. Or racist lying

Pigs...

[lostnfound]

9. Yes.1972-1996.

1972 is when my parents explained to me what an exit poll was. There was no reason to stay. Up late and watch election returns. Exit polls would tell you what the outcome was.

[dsc]

10. actually there was only one close election in that bunch

and the polls were off on that one just not enough to miss the result. Carter in 76 under performed his polls but still won. 72 and 84 were true blowouts, 80 and 88 were also fairly wide margins. 92 and 96 were quite comfortable.

[lostnfound]

11. Not just presidential but state as well

Those were the years I paid attention

[ElementaryPenguin]

14. Yes. Particularly exit polls - historically within 1% !!

Developed to detect fraud in elections - now apparently not needed as fraud with hacked electronic voting systems is rampant!

[malaise]

15. Ding ding we have a winner

[Ms. Toad]

17. lots of things happened in a similar time frame -

* Shift from land line to cell phones
* Shift from paper/mechanical voting to electronic
* Shift from election-day voting for the vast majority of people to a substantial number voting as much as a month in advance
* Increased social media - particularly social media for organizing (i.e.. Trump trains - or hte tiktok ticket grab by pre-teens)
* Decreased respect for the traditional trappings of politics: polling, news media (fake news/alternate facts)
* Increased polarization (which motivates the use of social media and other "plots" to fool the other side)

Hard to tell which one(s) contributed to it.