General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsOne pollster was close regarding Iowa - Selzer/Iowa Poll
Ann Selzer's last poll for Iowa had Trump and Ernst ahead by more than any other A rated poll:
Trump +7
Ernst +4.
Vote count:
Trump +8.2
Ernst +6.6
Iowa was hit by a red wave that hit in the last week, 538 showed this as a progressively higher red line.
Ace Rothstein
(3,196 posts)Good thing we are making progress in GA, NC and AZ.
Buckeye_Democrat
(14,858 posts)My purple county voted for Biden this time (barely voted for Trump last time), but the more rural counties just keep getting worse!
Blasphemer
(3,261 posts)Using the most reliable poll for a specific state/district. Maybe some pollsters do better in certain states? Selzer certainly nailed Iowa.
PTWB
(4,131 posts)We need the rest of the pollsters to do what she does.
LisaL
(44,980 posts)What good would that do?
PTWB
(4,131 posts)LisaL
(44,980 posts)Did it motivate anybody in Iowa?
PTWB
(4,131 posts)Did the +8 and +17 polls for Joe in Wisconsin make everyone complacent?
qazplm135
(7,447 posts)Just like Ralston in Nevada.
JI7
(89,283 posts)have a chance in those states.
But they weren't really seen as competitive for most of the campaign.
SharonClark
(10,014 posts)An article from the Columbia Journalism Review from 5 years ago is still interesting.
https://www.cjr.org/united_states_project/ann_selzer_iowa_poll_interview.php
BTW - Ann has lived in Des Moines since the 1980's and is virtually unknown in the community. She never appears on contributors' lists of cultural institutions or non-profits (symphony, zoo, botanic garden, library, etc).
Bigredhunk
(1,351 posts)The pollsters weren't as highly rated, but almost all the polls on 538 prior to the Seltzer poll had the 3 Dem house seat holders remaining in office. Their leads were pretty big too. Then this Seltzer gal came along and spoiled 2/3's of our fun. Greenfield/ernst was always going to be close. It's gotten harder for Dems to win big office here in IA. Hopefully chuckles doesn't run as a 90-yr-old and we can replace his seat with a Dem (although he's going to try with all his might to get his grandson in that seat).