Is the polling really to blame? Take another look.

[crickets]

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/11/1/1991564/-AI-That-Accurately-Predicted-Brexit-2016-and-Canadian-Election-says

While traditional pollsters have tried to address the failures of 2016 with new methods (like weighting for education), a new alternative has begun to appear: AI predictions. Advanced Symbolics Inc. is a Canadian firm that has developed an AI named “Polly” which was recently the subject of a documentary by TVO (an Ontario public broadcaster). Polly makes it prediction based on social media and was first deployed in Brexit, then the 2016 American election, and the 2019 Canadian and UK elections. It accurately predicted them all.

https://advancedsymbolics.com/us-election-2/

And yet, suddenly, the US Presidential race is way, way off.

It's not the polls, it's the counting of the votes. Vlad struck AGAIN and we've been robbed, again. There, I said it. Call me a conspiracy theorist, but I don't think so. All of these polls can't be so off over and over again unless something got broken, and it wasn't the polls.

[vollehosen]

1. It's the polls.

I don't think we need to overthink this. They tried to adjust for 2016 and totally whiffed.

[Mike 03]

2. I mostly agree with you. However, I think there is some truth to the

"Hidden Trump Voter" too.

I don't think it's conspiracy thinking at all to wonder about Russian interference. Hell, the former Chief of the Counterespionage Section of the FBI, Peter Strzok, has warned about this, as have dozens of other current and former Intel people. The most worrisome scenario is one in which, say, every 15th vote is changed and it's not possible to see that something has been placed in the election system.

But at this point I'm leaning towards: USPS failure (by design) and the Unpolled Trump Voter who in some cases is a member of a far right Christian church (nationalist or reconstructionist).

[crickets]

4. DeJoy definitely had an effect on some of the outcomes.

There's no telling how many ballots were 'lost' yet, and some have been located but still not delivered. It's maddening.

I'm not completely sold on the hidden trump voter. Sure there are some, there always are. It's the large numbers that seem so unbelievable.

[Cosmocat]

5. I work a poll

and have for long enough to be there for BHO's elections, it is an Rish area and the turnout in 2016 and yesterday was SPOOKY, we just crushed relentless in 2016, beat our record turnout of about 800 by 400. and yesterday was that way for the first half of the day - given mail in voting it was not as big.

BUT, it was like the gates of heaven opened up and every Rish cock roach who never voted in any other election showed up, people I not only never saw the poll, but never had seen from around in public.

Like it or not, 45 has an attraction that pulls in a massive subset of people who otherwise would have have voted in those two elections ...

[misanthrope]

13. He activates those whose primary motivation

is to inflict harm on others, either physically or by other means.

[SheltieLover]

3. PA absentee ballots match polls

Quite telling, imo.

[Hoyt]

6. Polling can be wrong, gamblers can lose more than

probability theory predicts, people sampled for polls can lie, pollsters are biased, people wake up on Election Day and go back to sleep because they think we have it in the bag based upon polls, I’d bet most polling models are similar and sometimes similarly wrong, etc.

Sure computers can be hacked. But if it’s that widespread, there would be some real evidence. We’ll see if any is found. In any event, if Biden wins, the hackers screwed up.

Apparently Polly was right in 2016, while all the other pollsters were wrong.

[Sogo]

7. Polly who?

[Hoyt]

8. Read the OP and you'd know who. You don't even have to read link.

[Patterson]

9. It doesn't have to be widespread.

[Hoyt]

10. Well the accusations seem to claim widespread corruption. In any event,

if it happened the hackers screwed up.

[crickets]

11. All true, but the perfect storm of a 'little of this' and a 'little of that'

seems to skew Democratic presidential races way too often to be unintentional. We'll see.

[Hoyt]

12. I do agree with the a little of this and that. Plus, trump

is a master at tapping into ignorant white wing psyche. Not something most of us aspire to. The POS even gained votes by refusing to wear a mask.

[crickets]

15. It's crazy, isn't it? nt

[Sunsky]

14. I agree with you 100% nt