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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsA good 538 live blog update by Nate . You'll like this.
NATE SILVER
NOV. 4, 4:31 PM
Where The Outstanding Presidential Races Stand, From Most Likely Trump Win To Least Likely Trump Win
Nate here. Stepping back into the saddle here for the rest of the day after a brief rest. Im going to give you a rundown of how Im currently seeing the states where we still dont have projections, even though it might be a little redundant with what weve written earlier.
But heres where the presidential race stands from most likely Trump win to least likely Trump win:
North Carolina. Trump leads by 1.4 points or about 77,000 votes, but mail ballots can arrive after Election Day in North Carolina, so perhaps 5 percent of the vote is still outstanding. The mail vote should be pretty blue in North Carolina, but is it enough to flip the state? Probably not, according to The Upshots needle, which gave Biden about a 15 percent chance in North Carolina before it was frozen. Id call this one Likely Trump, although 15 percent chances arent zero, obviously!
Georgia. Trump leads by 78,000 votes without around 200,000 votes outstanding (theres some uncertainty over the exact number). That seems like a tall order for Biden, but the remaining vote is expected to be very blue: mail votes from blue counties plus some Election Day votes from predominantly Black precincts in blue counties. The Upshots needle actually had Biden slightly favored to pull it off as of last night. Well know more soon. Lets say Tossup but you could force me into Lean Biden if you told me I had to make a pick.
Pennsylvania. As expected, far more uncounted votes here than elsewhere, mostly mail votes that should be quite Democratic-leaning, though. There are too many outstanding ballots for us to be in the endgame where we can game out exact scenarios, but in counties that have completed reporting, Biden looks to be hitting the targets he needs. Even with the Trump campaign filing a number of lawsuits, the margin is tightening quickly enough that I think this belongs in Lean Biden.
Arizona. We may need to do a longer post on Arizona later. Whats left to count is mostly mail votes that were returned late in the process on Monday or Tuesday. Theres some ambiguity about how many ballots this actually is; Edison Research seems to think around 450,000. If so, Trump would need to win those votes by 21 points to overtake Bidens current 93,000-vote lead. Theyre disrupted fairly evenly throughout the state.
Wait outstanding mail votes? Shouldnt those be good for Biden, as in other states? Well, not necessarily, because Republicans have a fairly strong mail voting program in Arizona and this is the key part the mail ballots that were returned later in the process (the ones yet to be continued) were significantly redder than the ones that came in earlier on, as Democrats sent their votes in early. For instance, the party registration of the votes that came in Monday and Tuesday were: 23 percent Democratic, 44 percent Republican, and 33 percent independent or other parties. That is to say, a 21-point GOP edge, which would put Trump on track to tie things up.
But heres the bad news for Trump. Party registration may be a misleading indicator in Arizona. It has a lot of ancestral Republicans who have now turned into swing voters. Biden also had a big lead among independents in polls. And earlier batches of mail ballots were considerably stronger for Biden than party registration alone would suggest. So probably these ballots are going to come in more for Trump than for Biden, but not as strongly as he needs.
Theres also the fact that two other news organizations, the Associated Press and Fox News, have called the state for Biden. Id assume theyve put more work into looking into this than I have, so that shifts my priors a bit, but you never know and you will get incorrect calls occasionally. Overall, Id say this is Likely Biden but I dont think the state should have been called yet.
Nevada. This ones a bit more straightforward. Biden leads by only 0.6 percent or about 7,500 votes. But whats remaining should be pretty good for him. Its all mail-in ballots that were either received late in the process or which are still coming in in Nevada, mail ballots can be received by Nov. 10 provided theyre postmarked by Election Day. The mail ballots were quite blue in Nevada by party registration, much more so than in Arizona, including votes that arrived relatively late in the process. Likely Biden.
Michigan. Biden is ahead, leading by around 61,000 votes or 1.2 percentage points. His lead has been growing and given what votes are outstanding, is likely to grow further. Likely Biden.
Wisconsin. No known votes left to be counted. The Trump campaign says it will seek a recount, but recounts rarely change results, and certainly not with something on the magnitude of Bidens 20,000-vote lead. Biden is the apparent winner, per ABC News
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A good 538 live blog update by Nate . You'll like this. (Original Post)
NRaleighLiberal
Nov 2020
OP
cry baby
(6,682 posts)1. I don't like this feeling, but I'm skeptical of 538 at the moment.
I hope hes right. PTSD is a bitch.
Dem2
(8,168 posts)5. Makes no sense.
This isn't poll aggregating, it's just basic math.
cry baby
(6,682 posts)6. I understand and agree. Like I said, it's undeniably PTSD. nt
Dem2
(8,168 posts)8. I'm with you there
I am glad I only whispered that we were expected to win, the only thing that seemed sure to me was NH (my state) and WI/MI. Glad I stopped there.
empedocles
(15,751 posts)2. 10 Biden leans, just 1 or 2 should do it.
May be some good surprises among the court cases.
Bleacher Creature
(11,258 posts)3. Crossing the 300 EV threshold would be pretty sweet.
Thanks for posting!
BSdetect
(8,999 posts)4. Yes, too soon to feel comfortable. Let the final tally come asap
DFW
(54,448 posts)7. Either he doesn't mind sticking his neck out way too far, or.....
He knows more than he's letting on, and this is a lock for us.
This is optimistic, but not necessarily encouraging.
I've see it put in other terms that I liked better. One thing of which I am confident--this won't be a solid, foolproof wrap by the time I leave for work tomorrow (6:15 CET).