Heads up on Arizona.

[wnylib]

NPR is reporting that conservative Maricopa County votes are being counted. They have narrowed Biden's lead and the count is not finished. More Maricopa County votes due later tonight. Votes are also coming in from Tucson, which is more Democratic, but in lower numbers than the votes from Maricopa Co.

But, even if Biden's lead does not hold in Arizona, there are still PA, GA, NV,and NC.

Disappointng if we lose AZ, but not the end of the story.

[democrattotheend]

1. Is Mark Kelly safe, at least?

Or are they expecting it to narrow enough that he could be in trouble too?

[StarryNite]

6. Mark Kelly's lead is shrinking.

[oswaldactedalone]

7. Kelly had about a 25,000 larger lead

than Joe so has a bigger cushion. Fingees crossed.

[Wanderlust988]

2. Trump has to win a certain percentage of Maricopa votes

Simply just winning them is not enough to overcome Biden's lead. And I heard that the late batches are more likely to be Democratic.

[Mike 03]

3. Why are they calling it "conservative Maricopa County"?

That's the point of Maricopa County: It's not conservative. Those voters put Kyrsten Sinema in office.

I'm shitting bricks over this. Come on, Arizona! Chrissakes.

[Amishman]

11. given the population growth and 2018 performance of that county

I'm still holding out a lot of hope that the mountain of votes still to count are purple or blue overall.

[marybourg]

13. There are many conservative parts of Maricopa county.

I live in one. It’s huge, and certainly hasn’t become uniformly blue within 4 years.

[Mike 03]

21. Point taken

But when you look at AZ as a whole, I'd call Gila, Yavapai, Graham and Mojave our conservative counties.

I personally wouldn't call Maricopa or Pima conservative, in the context of AZ counties. They have given us two blue senators. Without those counties, we'd be in a mess.

[marybourg]

25. I don't think the writer was characterizing the county as conservative,

but rather saying that the votes were going to come from that part of the county that was conservative. Like saying “red America”.

[wnylib]

15. Maricopa is the county of Sheriff Joe Arpaio

whom Trump pardoned.

[Mike 03]

22. Whatever. I think we're splitting hairs.

Without Maricopa county, we wouldn't have Kyrsten Sinema and now, likely, Senator Mark Kelly. If we "Go Blue" it's thanks to Maricopa.

[wnylib]

35. Thank you for the encouragement.

Hope you are right and I now feel better. Still a bit anxious, but not as much as earlier.

[GoCubsGo]

31. They are also the county that voted him out.

And, whose Republican party rejected him in the primary, when he ran again this year.

[wnylib]

36. Good reminder. Thank you.

[Klaralven]

26. Maricopa County registration 35.27% Republican, 31.38% Democratic

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maricopa_County,_Arizona#Politics

4,485,414 Maricopa County population; 1,680,992 Phoenix part of Maricopa County.

[Cha]

33. I know that got me, too.. Maricopa

County is Phoenix Mesa Glendale.

I wouldn't think Phoenix would be brainwashed.. not sure about Mesa & Glendale.

[apcalc]

4. Not sure about Ga

Biden down 14K, 98% counted

[in2herbs]

5. I saw numbers yesterday that had crook Schweikert beating Tipirnini. Not surprising. His

support comes from the well-to-do white folks in Scottsdale.

[StarryNite]

8. Yes, it's so discouraging.

[wnylib]

24. My 90 year old uncle lives in

Scottsdale. He is a staunch Democrat and despises Republicans. In fact, I have been concerned, due to his age, about how worked up he gets over Trump, whom he calls "President Pinochio." He lost his wife 2 years ago and now focuses his whole life around seeing Trump dumped.

Two of his sons are in AZ, but not in Scottsdale. Also Dems. Another son is a RWer living in SC. What can I say? Even good Dem families can have bad apples.

[obamanut2012]

9. Maricopa County isn't conservative

[Kali]

19. a lot of it sure the hell is

[grantcart]

28. And an even larger part is not

[Kali]

29. agree

but it isn't a Pima or Santa Cruz county.

[Cha]

37. Thanks, grant.

[Cha]

34. Thank you.. don't know where the OP

got that from?

[llmart]

10. This thread is making me nervous.

n/t

[wnylib]

27. Me, too, and I started it. But I am

still hoping for the best and counting on other states as backup.

[yellowcanine]

12. Joe up about 68K and AP has already called it. AP doesn't usually get it wrong but I suppose it

could happen. Also Maricopa County is huge and some parts are very liberal so I am not sure your premise of "conservative Maricopa County" is correct.

[wnylib]

17. It's the county of Sheriff Joe Arpaio.

Republican crowd is shouting "Count the votes."

[Guilded Lilly]

14. Biden's campaign chair said to expect up and downs, but the final outcome will be Joe.I believe her!

[Demsrule86]

16. We will win Arizona ...convinced of it.

[MR. ELECTABLE]

20. MATHS

Back of the envelope Arizona calculations:

Assuming outstanding votes are representative to the votes already counted.
Based off of remaining percentages from NYT:

TRUMP GAINS
-----------
Mojave 11,750
Pinal 2,700
Gila 1,700
Conchise 1,600
Graham 1,500
Yuma 1,500
Navajo 600
La Paz 300
Greenlee 250

TOTAL 21,900


BIDEN GAINS WITHOUT MARICOPA COUNTY
-----------
Pima 11,000
Coconino 4,250
Apache 2,250
Santa Cruz 1,750

TOTAL 19,250

NET BIDEN GAIN ASSUMING SIMILAR VOTING IN REMAINING COUNTIES: 19,250 - 21,900 = -2650

Biden's current lead is ~68,390 votes.

Assuming the remainder of Maricopa county's 275,000 votes go 58-42 for Trump (basically worst case),
that would reduce his lead by ~44,000 votes. (275,000 * 0.04)

That would still leave a margin of ~22,000 votes.

Note that having the rest of Maricopa county go 58-42 is unlikely. It is my understanding that the remaining votes in Maricopa may be concentrated in Democratic-leaning districts:

District leaning %Complete
CD5 R+15 100%
CD6 R+9 82%
CD7 D+23 59%
CD8 R+13 91%
CD9 D+4 76%


It's possible there could be some kind of extreme shift in the uncounted votes but it seems unlikely that it could erase Biden's margin altogether.

[lagomorph777]

23. Thank you for that! Math beats panic.

[Baitball Blogger]

30. +1

[Cha]

38. TY for Maths!

[VOX]

32. Weirdly prescient article: "Why Maricopa County will choose the next president"...

From The Hill (I know, I know, but this seems to be fairly written), 11/01/2020:
https://www.google.com/amp/s/thehill.com/homenews/campaign/523693-why-maricopa-county-will-choose-the-next-president%3famp

GLENDALE, Ariz. - The path to the White House runs straight through an elementary school playfield here, where on a recent Saturday morning a plane paid for by the Democratic National Committee drags a banner urging parents watching their kids play soccer to vote.

Those parents, and the other 4.7 million residents in Maricopa County, are at the epicenter of the battle for the White House. For the first time in decades, the largest county in this ordinarily conservative swing state has become an urgent priority for both Democrats and Republicans. No single media market has attracted more political advertising spending than have television stations in Phoenix.

Together, the voters of Maricopa County represent a microcosm of the poles dividing American politics today, from the nativist anti-immigration hardliners who have been President Trump's most ardent supporters to the growing minority communities who are finding their political power anew.

The fulcrum, the voters who will decide how this state - and the nation - tilts Tuesday, are the growing number of suburbanites in the rapidly expanding developments that have sent Maricopa County's population skyrocketing. They come in search of inexpensive housing, good-paying jobs in the growing tech sector, and the year-round sun for golf-loving retirees.