Heard Velshi say provisional ballots are not breaking for Biden in PA...anyone heard this?

[Demsrule86]

There are 92,000 of them.

[brush]

1. In which state?

[Demsrule86]

4. PA I will put it in the header.

[Boogiemack]

72. Weren't they sent out but not all returned? nt

[TxDemChem]

2. I heard it

I’m hoping enough of them will break for him to let him keep his edge. Maybe we’ll hear from Arizona and Nevada soon.

[Claustrum]

3. Yes. Kornacki warned about this earlier.

It could be Trump voters who requested mail in ballots but decided against it based on Trump. And so they go in to vote in-person but were put on provisional ballots instead.

That's why you can't assume blue county provisional ballots would break the same way as mail in ballots.

And this is the main reason AZ, NC, GA, NV, and PA aren't called, at least not until the vote difference is greater than the remaining votes.

[JaneQPublic]

6. Excellent explanation.

Thanks!

Kornacki couldn't do better.

[Demsrule86]

8. Velshi said they were not breaking for Biden.

[Claustrum]

13. Yes. And I gave you one possible explanation of it.

The question now is, how the actual vote would break and would it cut Biden's lead enough for Trump to retake the lead. We don't know. They don't know. That's why the states aren't called, not some conspiracy some seem to think it is around here.

[Demsrule86]

50. I don't think it is a conspiracy...I was worried the Trump could move ahead. I feel better after

reading these posts.

[Claustrum]

54. Sorry, I didn't mean you. I was referring to some people who thinks not calling the states are

some kind of conspiracy.

[Demsrule86]

63. Oh no, I never thought you did...I was just basically saying I want this f'ing race called.

[gopiscrap]

5. but they still have 35K mail ballots in Allegheny County

which is going 64% Biden and also about 80K in Philadelphia that is going 82% Biden

[Demsrule86]

7. You are right...and not all provisional ballots will be counted. They never are.

[brush]

12. So it doesn't change things if the 80k and 35k ballots are going...

heavy for Joe and he is already up thousands. It's just going to take time to wade through all of this, which is frustrating for everyone.

Biden has still got this.

[TwilightZone]

9. Probably why it hasn't been called.

Everyone is in such a huge hurry to demand the race be called while they fail to understand or acknowledge that issues like this remain.

Provisional ballots are unlikely to follow trends of other late-counted votes.

[underpants]

24. Exactly

It takes time and a lot of diligent volunteers

[StarfishSaver]

73. True. The demands the race be called sound like little kids unable to wait for Christmas

Why is it so hard for people to wait? It's not the media's job to fast track election results to satisfy our impatience.

[coti]

10. Earlier, Kornacki didn't say they WERE breaking for Trump,

but simply noted that they didn't know and that it was always possible they broke to Trump so heavily as to overcome Biden's current lead and any remaining mail-in vote.

Doesn't sound likely at all that there is anything about provisional ballots that they would so HEAVILY favor Trump. He just couldn't rule it out.

[Demsrule86]

14. OK so maybe Velshi misspoke...right?

[coti]

16. It's possible he tweaked what Kornacki had said. Nt

[Demsrule86]

20. It could be...Kornacki didn't say that...

[coti]

27. On edit, it was the spirit of what I heard Kornacki say.

He said they didn't know anything about how the provisional ballots would play out, that they had no data on it.

Edit: Watching the tape again, he said there was a small sample of provisional ballots from Trump areas that favored Trump. He did NOT say they heavily favored Trump. He then continued on with the point that they were just talking about possibilities and didn't know what would happen.

[Demsrule86]

41. Thanks...and 62000 were ballots that were sent out I read that were wrong...the ballots had

errors on them so new ones were sent... a judge has ordered those ballots be separated...whew...I think that is it so they should break for us if they are counted and of course they should be.

[samnsara]

11. i dont think they know that yet..arent they holding off counting them til later?

[coti]

15. Yes, the reasoning is they can't rule it out

They haven't ruled out the intervention of aliens, either, or monkeys flying out of their butts.

They're too fearful and comfortable.

[Straw Man]

28. Last resorts.

They haven't ruled out the intervention of aliens, either, or monkeys flying out of their butts.

Those might be the only scenarios that could save Trump now. I think they're putting out a call for donations to fund a new cadre of butt monkeys.

[Demsrule86]

18. They are counting them today...at least some counties.

[TwilightZone]

21. They're counting them and setting certain ones aside.

To comply with a court order.

[Demsrule86]

52. Those are the ones where PA sent ballots that were wrong out...new ballots were

sent out to replace them. I fail to see why they shouldn't be counted.

[TwilightZone]

64. Agreed.

Trump is just trying to create confusion, as usual.

[Etherealoc1]

17. Heard that as well

Unsure how they know those votes are skewed towards Trump.

Many Democrats showed up in person because they didn't trust the mail after hearing about the shenanigans at the post office.

[Demsrule86]

19. I don't know but no one else seems worried so...maybe it is nothing.

[58Sunliner]

22. Apparently there is confusion as to where they are from.

" Majority of provisionals are concentrated in Philly, Allegheny and SEPA counties- will not break enough for Trump to win." This chain of thought has been echoed by Nate, and others.

[BusyBeingBest]

23. My understanding, having heard it, was that Velshi was saying

they aren't breaking for Biden AT THE SAME RATIO as the mail ballots had been breaking for Biden. Doesn't mean Trump is going to get a much bigger haul of votes out of them, but it also makes it harder to extrapolate.

[radius777]

29. +1. Exactly. Kornacki IMO has unnecessarily scared people.

Let's face it, the media wants the illusion suspense so people keep tuning it.

John King and CNN has been much better at this - Trump has virtually no chance of winning PA based on what is remaining - and King has been very clear about this. Everyone running the numbers inside the campaigns knows Joe will win. Sen. Casey and Ed Rendell reiterated this - they are not guessing.

The betting markets have Biden at 95% odds to win the presidency:

https://www.bonus.com/election/?exchange=AGG

[BusyBeingBest]

39. No, I heard Kornacki say that in some red counties the provisionals

skewed more Trump than mail ballots did in those same red counties (more Biden), but I don't think he had a breakdown on how many provisional ballots were going to come from blue areas. Basically, they couldn't be sure enough about where the provisionals were coming from, and why they were used to begin with, to figure them in to their calculations yet. That was hours ago, though--more should be known now. BTW, they're saying the same thing about NV provisionals.

[Demsrule86]

43. But if most of these ballots are the 62,000 that were bad ballots that were replaced...then

then the trend is still for Biden in terms of they were absentee ballots.

[BusyBeingBest]

46. I had not heard that. The ballots I had heard that were being replaced

were misprinted mail in ballots in some parts of Allegheny county and they were being counted today (28 or 30,000)--they weren't provisional, they were regular mail ballots and should still favor Biden.

[Demsrule86]

53. You are probably right...the entire thing is super confusing.

[octoberlib]

25. Yawn.

Link to tweet

?s=20

Link to tweet

?s=20

Link to tweet

?s=20

Link to tweet

?s=20

Link to tweet

?s=20

[radius777]

31. Steve Schmidt was just on and he echoed that sentiment.

He said the race should've been called, that every decision desk (including his own network) knows the race is over, and that the longer it goes on the longer Trump and his allies have time to spread disinfo.

Once Biden passed Trump in PA this morning they should've called it.

[coti]

35. Point number two isn't totally accurate to the spirit of what Kornacki said

Kornacki's point in context was that they couldn't totally rule out an amazing Trump comeback.

[Demsrule86]

48. Thank you so much...I was very confused. I feel better.

[octoberlib]

51. I know. I freaked out at first, too. but then I started digging around on Twitter and everybody's

calling him out. I don't think it's Kornacki's or Velshi's fault but a network decision for some reason.

[ooky]

26. I didn't hear it but since they are provisional ballots I'm guessing they are just more mixed

than the large percentage of (~75%) ballots that we have become accustomed to breaking for Biden. The provisional vote would be same day vote and for a variety of reasons. There should be votes for both sides in this batch, including mail voters from both sides who changed their minds about mailing their ballot. (No idea the breakdown.)

[crickets]

30. The last data dump from 20 mins ago

https://alex.github.io/nyt-2020-election-scraper/battleground-state-changes.html

Shows trump got way more votes than Biden in the last batch, but mathematically trump is still nowhere near the pace he would need to amass enough votes to pass Biden. That's if I'm reading this correctly, and I'm running on fumes right now. Feedback from someone else might be more clear and precise.

[coti]

32. Not seeing anything in that small amount of data threatening Biden's lead in PA

[crickets]

45. The way the numbers are trending steady and flat over time, I don't either. nt

[BainsBane]

34. according to that page

Trump is on pace to win AZ.

[crickets]

42. He's averaging slightly under what he needs, but barely.

The trend seems to be decreasing, but I don't know anything about which batches they're counting right now and whether the trend might change dramatically one way or the other.

[BlueInPhilly]

47. It's a simple web scraping program

With no context. It's a snapshot and it says Trump needs 58% to catch up. What it doesn't factor in is where the remaining ballots are coming from and that's where interpolations come in. It's not a model, really.

[Demsrule86]

49. Nope...he is not winning by large enough margins.

[Blaukraut]

40. The batches that favor Trump are smaller than those that go for Biden

Trump's hurdle percentage hasn't gone back down yet.

[Demsrule86]

55. New stuff coming...have switched to CNN...pissed at MSNBC.

[GumboYaYa]

33. See this tweet by a local elections expert on makeup of provisionals in PA

Link to tweet

[Demsrule86]

57. Thank you so much for this...that makes sense.

[crickets]

62. Good to know. Thanks. nt

[Etherealoc1]

36. Here's the video

MSNBC: Calling PA is Premature – TopTradeGurus
https://www.toptradeguru.com/news/msnbc-calling-pa-is-premature/?amp=1

[treestar]

37. The Biden campaign has been confident of PA

and why would they say that if they knew about this and it was possible it could overturn the lead? This is the media enjoying its horse race going on for days.

[Demsrule86]

66. I agree...lots of good explanation but when Kornacki an Velshi said this...I kind of panicked.

[Happy Hoosier]

38. Silver has a Twitter thread on this.

All provisionals counted so far are from RED counties. 40,000 of them are from Philly. Relax.

[renate]

44. How does this explanation look to anyone who understands this stuff?

It seems encouraging to me. The final calculation is in his reply to his own tweet.

Link to tweet

?s=21

[Happy Hoosier]

56. I don't know if the math is exactly accurate, but....

The principle is. People are absolutely overreacting to this. Biden will net votes from these ballots

[Demsrule86]

59. Of course he will...I was just upset because Velshi said they were breaking for Trump.

This is not the case really.

[DeminPennswoods]

58. Having done this, I'm pretty sure the poll's election board

does its darndest to figure out if the voter is in its poll book, possibly under a different ir mis-spelled last name (married, divorced, re-married, etc) or is listed at a different address than they are now (moved between elections). The voter can vote by signing their name as it appears in the poll book or they can be directed to the correct polling location.

If the voter brings the complete absentee ballot package (outer and inner envelope and ballot), it's nullified by the election judge and the voter votes in person on a regular ballot. If the voter claims to have an absentee ballot and doesn't bring it, then they are allowed to vote via provisional ballot.

I would expect the provisional ballots to reflect the a similar vote profile as the election day vote wherever they are.

[Demsrule86]

60. I would think it they had mail in ballots and replaced them, they would be similar to what

we have in with Biden overperforming.

[DeminPennswoods]

61. Without knowing where these provisional ballots are,

hard to say.

Someone posted 40k were in Philadelphia. I'd expect those to be at the 80% same day vote rather than the 90% of the absentee ballots.

It could well be that not that many of the provisionals will even be counted because the voter's absentee ballot was already counted. It's possible most of these are "better safe than sorry" votes from voters who mailed their ballots at the last minute and weren't sure they'd count.

At least during my time as poll worker, there were very, very few provisional ballots and they were associated with voters not being in the poll book.

[DeminPennswoods]

65. OK, here's what Velshi/Kornacki are basing their talk on

Here's the state's election returns site. It includes same day, mailed ballots and provisional ballots for each race and each county.

Some of the smaller, rural, republican counties have reviewed and counted their provisional ballots. Trump won these counties from between 62 and 80%.

I compared the provisional ballot number to the percent Biden got in the county. The provisional breakdown is very similar to the overall county split.

Counties/Provisional ballots/Biden count/Biden provisional % vs Biden county %

Cambria/430/131/27% vs 30%
Cameron/28/8 28% vs 26%
Jefferson/270/48/ 18% vs 20%
Juniata/96/18/19% vs 19%
Lebanon/48/15/31% vs 33%
Montour/73/22/30% vs 38%
Sullivan/29/9/31% vs 26%
Tioga/297/68/23% vs 23.5%

So, it is true Trump's winning the provisionals by a significant margin, but these numbers are from small counties that are Trump strongholds.

If 40,000 of the provisionals are in Philadelphia and break at the same rate as the county, 80+%, then that's a 24,000 Biden net (32,000-8,000).

FTR, the small number of provisionals in each county pretty much matches my experience of 9 to a few per precinct.

[Demsrule86]

69. OK... so this should not really cause an issue. Right?

[DeminPennswoods]

70. No, I don't think so

Here's the link: https://www.electionreturns.pa.gov/

[Celerity]

67. he just said there is no evidence either way atm

[Demsrule86]

68. Thank you...that makes me feel better.

[Celerity]

71. this whole thing is just exhausting, lol, but I'm so not in a rush, want it all done 100% correctly

do not need some dodgy rush job shite blowing up in our faces and causing the QAnon/MAGAt crew to start shooting people (before they would be mowed down, of course, but any violence and/or death is horrific)

[Dem2]

74. Cuz Biden's lead just went back up almost 2500 votes, that's why

On edit - now another 2100

[Celerity]

76. but we are talking about provisional ballots, not the mail in vote (which just raised up Biden's

lead, and you are talking about)

[Dem2]

77. Site doesn't differentiate

The way I see it, Biden wins the big batches, Rump the small ones

[Celerity]

79. Kornacki just said (15 minutes ago or so) that the increase was all mail-ins, no provisionals

and he still does not now the Rethug-friendly skew (if it even exists at all) of the provisional ballots.

[FrankBooth]

75. How many non-provisional ballots left to be counted in PA?

Apologies if I missed this somewhere else, but what I've been dying to find out is how many non-provisional ballots are left? I know there's 35K or so of the mail-in left in the Pittsburgh era which are about to be counted, but are there still more from other blue areas? Last night when I finally succumbed and went to bed there were 150K or so left (including Pitt), and when I woke up Biden was ahead by close to his current margin. Are there enough outstanding mail-ins from blue areas left to be counted to counter any possible Trump surge in the provisionals?

Thanks in advance.

[BGBD]

78. Relax folks.

Those provisional ballots are going to look a lot like the in-person voting. We have counties with provisionals reported to prove this. Also, keep in mind that a higher percentage of these are going to be expected to show up in Pittsburgh and Philly, where they will likely favor Biden.