Some of our conspiracy theories about the vote counts are nearly as ridiculous as Trump's.

[TwilightZone]

I find it curious that we (correctly) criticize Trump, then turn around and repeat the same kind of nonsense, just from a different perspective.

No one has called PA because there are 100k provisional ballots that almost assuredly won't match the Trump/Biden ratio of other recent updates because they were received at different times. Therefore, they can't be extrapolated. Therefore, the race can't be called yet.

In AZ and NV, there were more ballots left to count than expected and there was a reporting error in AZ that might have led to Fox News and the AP calling the race prematurely. Total vote in was reported as 99% a couple days ago when it was actually about 85%.

But, no. None of that is true. It's all a big conspiracy by election officials, the states involved, TV networks, attention-seeking vote counters, "cowards", governors, other politicians, and whoever else we want to throw under the bus.

The only difference, really, is intent. We want the race to be over. Trump wants it to be overturned. Beyond that, some of the arguments sound rather similar. And nearly as ridiculous.

[obnoxiousdrunk]

1. +100 n/t

[L.Pharmstrong]

2. You're repeating a right-wing meme . . .

How dare you suggest that a rational explanation exists. /sarcasm off

[NewsCenter28]

3. Nate Silver has thoroughly debunked your contention about the PVs

I suggest you read his blog. Explain Nevada not being called also?

[marylandblue]

4. Your missing that all these backroom reporters know who Trump is.

He has been intimidating reporters forever. Long before he was President. He's gotten people fired. He dragged people through the mud. If you anger him, you always pay a price. That's the real reason they treat him with such kid gloves.

[D23MIURG23]

5. I like your rational approach, but...

Nate Silver has been saying (for 24 hours at least) that he has no idea why Nevada hasn't been called. He's recited the relevant information about where the ballots are from and how they came in, that would allow you to estimate what ratio of support Biden is going to get from them.

I don't think there is a conspiracy here, but I think it's apparent that the networks are exercising a significantly higher standard of caution than they do in most elections.

Any motive you could assign for that is going to be speculative, but IMO it's probably more out of fear than anything else. No one wants to call it and then be wrong, and have potentially dramatic consequences result from a missed call.

Some people are saying its for ratings, but I don't think that is a major motive, because I don't think that would keep an organization like AP or NYTimes from calling it. I don't know what the AP's business model is or how this is affecting their revenue stream, but it seems less likely that it would be less direct than an organization like ABC.

[Silent3]

6. I don't think thinking the networks are being straingely timid about calling the race...

Last edited Sat Nov 7, 2020, 01:52 AM - Edit history (1)

...rises to the level of batty conspiracy theory. Speculative yes, and possibly not true, but even if wrong, about 0.0000047Q of tinfoil there.

As others have said, even Nate Silver (whose reputation as a statistical genius is a bit sullied at this point, but is still someone who has a basic grasp of the facts and the subject matter, and isn't known for loony extrapolations) thinks the major media services are being cowardly about making these final state calls.

[greenjar_01]

7. Fox called Arizona before the 86%/98+% data error and stood by it after the correction

If you're gonna be in the business of demanding honesty and rationality from others, you might start by investing in some yourself.