General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsHere's the 538 live blog wrap/status of vote counting for tonight (posted just now)
overall link to the long running live blog - https://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2020-election-results-coverage/
NATHANIEL RAKICH
NOV. 6, 11:19 PM
Were Calling It A Night
We dont expect any major updates overnight, so were going to adjourn for the evening and pick things back up tomorrow morning. Heres where we stand: Biden can clinch the presidency by winning either Pennsylvania or both Arizona and Nevada. And he looks good in all three states:
Pennsylvania: Bidens lead here keeps widening and now sits at 28,833 votes. Whats more, the remaining 90,000 or so mail-in ballots and 100,000 or so provisional ballots figure to be Democratic-leaning as well. We expect to get more updates from large, blue counties like Philadelphia and Allegheny tomorrow, which may (or may not) inspire the networks to project the state for Biden.
Nevada: After todays updates, Biden now leads here by 22,657 votes. Although about 124,500 ballots have yet to be counted, they are expected to lean Democratic. Clark County (home of Las Vegas), where most of the outstanding ballots are from, will release its next update at noon Eastern on Saturday and should have the bulk of the counting done this weekend.
Arizona: Biden currently leads here by 29,861 votes, but an estimated 173,000 ballots (including roughly 47,000 provisional ballots) remain to be counted. Trump needs to win about 59 percent of those (or more) to pull into the lead, but hes been falling short of that so far. Most of the remaining ballots are in Maricopa County, which will announce its next batch of results Saturday at 11 a.m. Eastern.
Finally, there are two states that are not going to be resolved any time soon.
Georgia: Biden is up here by a little over 4,000 votes hardly a safe margin with up to nearly 4,200 regular absentee ballots, 8,400 overseas ballots and 14,200 provisional ballots left to count. The secretary of state has already said that the race will go to a recount.
North Carolina: North Carolina has counted every ballot it had in its possession as of Tuesday, and Trump currently leads by 76,515 votes. However, the state has announced that about 130,900 mail-in ballots and 40,766 provisional ballots are potentially outstanding, although not all of them will count. Mail-in ballots can arrive until Nov. 12 and still be counted, and at that point more results will be released.
littlemissmartypants
(22,636 posts)NRaleighLiberal
(60,014 posts)littlemissmartypants
(22,636 posts)angrychair
(8,698 posts)there is no 8,400 military/overseas ballots. They were sent out but only a few, like less than 20, came back. Of the 14,200 provisional ballots, not all will get accepted but the majority of those provisional ballots are in Fulton County and will likely break heavily in favor of Biden.
Biden won Georgia. Call it.
Johnny2X2X
(19,060 posts)17k came back. 8k didnt. Thats normal.
What the networks were doing was trying to make it seem like 8,000 were coming in and could change things.
angrychair
(8,698 posts)they were not holding onto a pile of them to count latter. They are treated like any other mail-in ballot.
The remaining never came back....well very few did.
Johnny2X2X
(19,060 posts)They had a few come in today, thats it.
Its actually a shame for Biden as hes winning the military vote convincingly.
angrychair
(8,698 posts)hope the provisional ballots turn out as well.
Hermit-The-Prog
(33,332 posts)regnaD kciN
(26,044 posts)...already headed to an automatic recount.
angrychair
(8,698 posts)Wisconsin which they knew was going to be going to recount