Study Considers a Link Between QAnon and Polling Errors

[Nevilledog]

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Alex Kaplan
@AlKapDC
"The researchers identified a strong statistical correlation between state polls that underestimated Mr. Trump’s chances and a higher-than-average volume of QAnon activity in those states, including Wisconsin, Michigan and Ohio."
Research is finding a strong correlation between state polls that underestimated President Trump’s chances and a higher-than-average volume of QAnon activity in those states.
Study Considers a Link Between QAnon and Polling Errors
New research indicates that pollsters may not have captured the Trump support swirling around the online conspiracy theory.
nytimes.com

It's very possible we're going to be dealing with the consequences for a while to come of social media platforms allowing QAnon years to grow before they acted.

One thing I want to emphasize as we grapple with Marjorie Taylor Greene's likely election to Congress (& possibly Lauren Boebert's): QAnon has likely gained a foothold in the political process specifically because it had years to develop an infrastructure on social media.

The social media platforms made a choice to not act for years as QAnon grew on their platforms. This is the tragic consequence of that.

Marc-André Argentino
@_MAArgentino
Replying to @_MAArgentino
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https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/06/technology/study-considers-a-link-between-qanon-and-polling-errors.html

Polls in several key states underestimated the breadth of support for President Trump before the Nov. 3 election, just as they did in 2016.

But why?

Early results from a study by researchers at the University of Southern California indicate that pollsters may not have captured support for Mr. Trump among followers of the QAnon conspiracy theory that has spread widely on Twitter and other social networks in recent months.

The researchers identified a strong statistical correlation between state polls that underestimated Mr. Trump’s chances and a higher-than-average volume of QAnon activity in those states, including Wisconsin, Michigan and Ohio.

“The higher the support for QAnon in each state, the more the polls underestimated the support for Trump,” said Emilio Ferrara, the University of Southern California professor who is overseeing the study.

The study draws on an analysis of more than 240 million election-related tweets from June through September, which included widespread activity involving QAnon, a conspiracy theory that falsely claims that President Trump is facing down a shadowy cabal of Democratic pedophiles. The researchers then compared this data to election predictions made by the popular website FiveThirtyEight.com.

Mr. Ferrara suggests that QAnon believers were not properly captured by the polls because such conspiracy theorists tend to distrust mainstream media organizations like FiveThirtyEight or The New York Times. “If you distrust institutions,” he said, “you are less likely to participate in polls.” Participants are typically recruited by phone and in online surveys.

*snip*

[Squinch]

1. But I'm told by some DUers that there is nothing wrong with Facebook whatsoever.

[judesedit]

2. Probably had some effect, but major vote flipping helped

Dump get the votes he did, I'll bet. Check out blackboxvoting.org for evidence of past vote flipping. It's so easy to do a child can do it and has demonstrated on television. It's one of the major weapons the rethugs keep in their arsenal to cheat in elections and how the minority has been able to keep power.