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So far, WSJ, AP, Fox, HQDesk, Wasserman have called AZ for Biden (at least) (Original Post) triron Nov 2020 OP
Right now I am seeing Biden with 11,635 lead and 22,456 votes outstanding csziggy Nov 2020 #1
18,000 of the outstanding ballots are provisionals VMA131Marine Nov 2020 #5
Yeah, the site I listed only gives total estimated voted remaining csziggy Nov 2020 #7
Al Jazeera added AZ to Joe's win stats last week. abqtommy Nov 2020 #2
Thanks. Add another one to my list. triron Nov 2020 #3
once we add Georgia, that will be 306 EVs. Not even close. NRaleighLiberal Nov 2020 #4
Biden up by 5.2 million votes already greenjar_01 Nov 2020 #6

csziggy

(34,139 posts)
1. Right now I am seeing Biden with 11,635 lead and 22,456 votes outstanding
Thu Nov 12, 2020, 12:01 AM
Nov 2020

If Trump won over 76% of the remaining votes, he could still win Arizona. He's averaging 55%.

https://alex.github.io/nyt-2020-election-scraper/battleground-state-changes.html#

VMA131Marine

(4,158 posts)
5. 18,000 of the outstanding ballots are provisionals
Thu Nov 12, 2020, 12:20 AM
Nov 2020

with 10,000 of those in Pima County. I don’t have 2020 data, but in 2018 an average of 40% of the provisional ballots were rejected nationwide. In some states the reject rate was over 90%.
If the reject rate for the remaining provisionals is 40% then only 10,800 are valid. Add in the 4,456 other ballots and that leaves 15,256 to count and Trump would need ~88% of them to draw even.

csziggy

(34,139 posts)
7. Yeah, the site I listed only gives total estimated voted remaining
Thu Nov 12, 2020, 12:33 AM
Nov 2020

And Georgia has not had even that listed for days.

What I do see is that the chance that any of the Trump efforts will not be enough to take even one state that has been declared for Biden. And that makes me feel very, very good.

NRaleighLiberal

(60,027 posts)
4. once we add Georgia, that will be 306 EVs. Not even close.
Thu Nov 12, 2020, 12:12 AM
Nov 2020

amazing trump is calling fraud when the results are clearly going Biden's way - overwhelming popular vote as well.

 

greenjar_01

(6,477 posts)
6. Biden up by 5.2 million votes already
Thu Nov 12, 2020, 12:27 AM
Nov 2020

And the Trumpies are not going to like some of the places with outstanding vote yet to give:

Most of New York City is under 70% counted. Newark, NJ. Chicago is at 88% counted - probably another 120,000 for Biden there. Baltimore and Baltimore County. Cleveland, Toledo, Cincinnati. I can see the margin extending to 6.5 million, since most of the red counties are also cooked.

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