I hate to be a blind cheerleader, but we will gain in the midterms. Here's why.

[themaguffin]

Mitch is going to roadblock everything.

If he doesn't, whatever passes will be weaker than what is needed (say covid stimulus funds etc).

trump won't be on the ballot.

These are massively significant things.

Obviously, we don't know and yes, there are challenges when a president is in office.

Obviously, Democrats in office, need to get their shit together on messaging and simply convey to the American people what the Republicans are blocking and what they would do if nothing changes.

I'm actually not a blind cheerleader, but I wanted to bring up significant points that would not be lost deep in another thread.

2022 is not a negative and we have all the reason to be hopeful and work for gains.

Edit: ***My comments are based on not having the Senate - we don't have it now. I hope we get it, but I'm not assuming

[LymphocyteLover]

1. this is assuming Dems don't get control of the Senate with the GA elections

and I think that is a real possibility. But we can't let up in 2022, no doubt.

[themaguffin]

4. Until we have the Senate, we don't. I am working the assumption that we don't until that changes

[rso]

2. Midterms

We may still win the Senate in January.

[Turin_C3PO]

3. I agree.

If we can straighten out our messaging we could easily gain seats. Plus Trump won’t be on the ballot so a certain number of deplorables won’t bother voting. That would work in our favor. The only thing against us is the historical fact that the party in power rarely wins midterms. But we can change that.

[Wicked Blue]

5. And look how we came together in 2018 and 2020

The dread of trumpo-fascism remains, and the best way to begin eradicating it is with strong Democratic majorioties in the House and Senate.

[RobertDevereaux]

6. 22 GOP seats are up for the taking in 2022....

Last edited Sun Nov 15, 2020, 12:29 PM - Edit history (1)

Elections to the U.S. Senate will be held on November 8, 2022, and 34 of the 100 seats are up for regular election. Special elections may be held to fill vacancies that occur in the 117th Congress.

Of the 34 regularly scheduled elections in 2022, 12 seats were held by Democrats and 22 were held by Republicans as of November 2020.

https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Senate_elections,_2022

[Celerity]

9. 2022 US Senate 'in-play' races (the actual races, plus the fact it is a 1st term POTUS midterms make

it harder than 2020. We have 3 for sure, and possibly 5, seats at more risk than anything we had in 2020, and to flip more than 2 or so of the Rethug seats will take some heavy lifting. The last 1st term midterms (2010) we had was huge disaster, we lost a net 63 House seats and 7 Senate seats.


At-Risk (even if marginal) Dems

In order of risk

Georgia (IF Warnock wins the runoff with Loeffler)
Nevada Catherine Cortez Masto (Brian Sandoval would be by far the toughest Rethug to beat from what I see)
Arizona Mark Kelly (It will not be McSally running against him, lolol)
New Hampshire Maggie Hassan (her two strongest opponents would probably be Former Senator Kelly Ayotte and Governor Sununu)
Vermont Patrick Leahy (IF he retires, the very popular Rethug Governor Phil Scott may prove to be real trouble)
Colorado Michael Bennet (I see little chance for him to lose)


Possible Rethug Flips

In order of risk for them

Pennsylvania Open Seat Tom Wolf FTW (he is term limited)
North Carolina Open Seat Jeff Jackson FTW
Wisconsin Ron Johnson (asshat deluxe, I fucking hate this clown) Mandela Barnes FTW
Georgia Loeffler (unless we win it in the runoff) Sally Yates or Jason Carter perhaps, too early to tell
Florida Marco Rubio Val Demmings, or perhaps Charlie Crist or Stephanie Murphy or Gwen Graham
Iowa Chuck Grassley (may retire he will turn 90yo in the first year of his next term if he runs, if he retires we have a good shot, Vilsack should run, he should have ran in 2020, or perhaps Axne)
Kansas Jerry Moran Only shot we have, and it would be a decent one, is if Sibelius runs this time, she should have ran in 2020) If she refuses again, forget winning this seat, and it still will be hard even if she does
Kentucky Rand Paul (fucking berk)
Ohio Rob Portman
Indiana Todd Young (no clue if Buttigieg would try, Indiana is SO Red now, ffs)
Missouri Roy Blunt

[RobertDevereaux]

12. Thanks for those details!

[Celerity]

15. yw!

[Greybnk48]

7. I strongly agree.

I sense that the usual patterns will not hold after what we've been through and that we will hold the house and gain some seats.

I'm going to volunteer to help get rid of Ron Johnson in 2022 in Wisconsin.

[Silent3]

8. The reason Mitch wants to roadblock everything is that he knows...

...displeasure with what government fails to do almost always falls on the party of the President. He knows Republicans can deliberately fuck things up, and successfully foist the blame on Democrats.

Why? Most voters are stupid, they don't know how government works, and they don't care to know.

If we can message our way out of that, great. But it's never been that successful in the past. If Biden quite rightfully complains that Republicans are blocking the good things he's trying to do, you know how most of the public reads that?

They read it as being whiny and making excuses. A totally unfair assessment, of course, but a very reliable result, and Mitch knows it. The general public will think it's Biden's job to somehow get good stuff done, that if Biden (and his Democratic party) are any good, they will somehow bring enough Republicans over to their side, or otherwise perform some sort of governmental magic that helps.

Republicans take over, make things worse, but use their time in power to dig their hooks deeper into gerrymandering and stacking the courts and voter suppression, maybe still lose the next elections, then Democrats are allowed two years, and two years only, to fix the mess.

Rinse and repeat.

[treestar]

10. And it does not always go to the opposition

Just because it did for Obama. Obama had just gotten the ACA, so it was natural for the electorate to put the breaks on the liberalism.

In fact, this time it will be tough to Biden (if we don't get the Senate) to get anything passed. So the answer to that is to give him both houses. The Senate is a better chance in 2022. There's no reason to think the House will just flip due to a superstition akin to the one where the incumbent always wins or the winner of Iowa gets the nomination.

[VA_Jill]

11. PA

should go to Fetterman.

[MerryBlooms]

13. We're also finally going to have a national plan for the pandemic,

which I believe will help us get votes. Biden isn't going to force states to deal with this horror show on their own any longer!

[Klaralven]

14. Not having the Senate may improve our chances of gaining the Senate and holding the House in 2022.

In 1992 and 2008 we took the Presidency, House and Senate.

In 1994 we lost both the House and Senate. In 2010 we lost the House.

[sarcasmo]

16. Larry Hogan should be the 2024 Republican nominee.

[Fiendish Thingy]

17. 2022 may be tougher if we do win the senate, because of Manchin's intended obstruction

He has already stated that court expansion, killing the filibuster, and the public option are no votes from him.

Hopefully he wouldn’t obstruct COVID relief/stimulus, but with the filibuster intact, that and Biden’s Green Jobs bill are uncertain as well.

With a technical majority, but with Manchin’s obstruction and the survival of the filibuster, Dems will be portrayed as weak and ineffective in the midterms.

Schumer needs to play hardball with Manchin.