How will we know if/when the vaccine is effective?

[Yavin4]

Would it show up in the infection rate? If so, what is the metric? A 10-day rolling average? A 7-day rolling average? Rate of vaccinations? No new outbreaks?

--On Edit--

I need a subject for my graduate project in Data Science. I'm thinking of building a Time Series model to track covid-19 and the vaccine. I may take a run at it and see what I can do. Do you think its worthwhile?

[hlthe2b]

1. Given we have no specific HCW surveillance (though some unofficial metrics exist), it won't

be immediately obvious; However, given there are attempts to vaccinate every nursing home by the end of the year, THAT is where we might see the first evidence sometime in late January.

[genxlib]

2. I suspect

It will be visible in the case rate but hard to distinguish from other mitigation efforts.

I think the first sue sign will be in the death rate. As vulnerable populations go first, the number of people dying should go way down even if the infection rates stay up.

[SWBTATTReg]

3. Good ?. Probably a combination of all those things you list, I wonder if someone is tracking the...

application of all vaccines across the entire Country too, and the world, I know that they've are vaccinating health care workers and the elderly in nursing homes, and that's the first batch (3 million or so shots)...of course the trump admin. failed to get more than 3 million shots (go figure why they only got 3 million shots in the first wave, perhaps they couldn't get enough payoff from the vaccine manufacturers?).

As the vaccine(s) spread across the Country (and world), I expect infection rates will slowly tamper down...maybe someone in the know will address this question in a later post?

[roamer65]

4. Next fall.

If there is no large scale seasonal outbreak.

Cases will slow either way in late spring/summer.

[beachbumbob]

5. In 4-6 months

[mitch96]

6. I'm thinking when the death toll and hospitalization rates fall...That's the point, right? nt

[abqtommy]

7. I think your efforts in this direction would be very worthwhile! I'll be following any problems

caused by side effects but what you're suggesting would be much more comprehensive and effective. Besides that and your personal satisfaction I don't doubt that it'll get you some
good marks on your graduate project!

[Wounded Bear]

8. June. 2021 if we're lucky...nt