I predict Trump's demise towards the end of 2022

[Beastly Boy]

Sure I am going out on a limb here, but recent events and, more importantly, the trajectory in which they have developed and are developing, lead me to be reasonably confident in my prediction. And it has nothing to do with Trump's physical or mental deterioration.

Here are my observations:
- Despite lying and cheating, abusing his position as the head of state to his advantage and violating every conceivable legal and ethical standard to win the election, he lost.
- Despite widespread voter suppression, he lost The Senate and failed to take control of the House.
- Despite stuffing the courts with right wing appointees, he lost every legal challenge to overturn election results. In fact, recent decisions by various courts reinforced, rather than weaken, America's electoral institutions.
- Despite using all levers of power of the presidency to intimidate and pressure the military, DOJ, American electoral institutions and individual politicians of any influence, he failed to change the results of the elections.
- Despite excessive pandering to his most militant and violent hardcore extreme right, racist and batshit delusional devotees and literally sending them to commit treason and overturn the election results by force, he failed.

As a result, Trump lost a great deal of his political capital. He no longer has the power of the Presidency at his disposal. He can no longer pressure foreign heads of states to start bogus investiogations into his enemies, or share top secrets with Uncle Vlad, or threaten to withdraw military assistance to NATO. He can no longer appoint incompetent but loyal members of the Administration or federal judges. He can no longer grant or withhold federal aid to states or agencies based on his approval or disapproval of how they are run. The only significant political advantage he has left is his firm grip on the cojones of the GOP. And even that grp shows signs of weakening, notwithstanding the rhetoric that may suggest otherwise.

To me, the telling sign was the recent CPAC presidential straw poll. Despite many hours of most sincere Trump worship by the most devoted, hand-picked cult followers coming from the Nazi rune-shaped stage (or maybe because of it), only 55% of the straw poll participants chose Trump to be the next party nominee. Coming from Trump's supposedly hardcore supporters, that's dismal!

The only remaining lever of power Trump seems to be left with is to intimidate the current establishment of the GOP. It is unclear whether he has any dirt on any of them, so I will dirsegard this possibility. What Trump has left is a threat to "primary" GOP elected officials. And he named names. I will not go into the likelihood of him succeeding in this, because it is pretty irrelevant. Let's assume he succeeds to primary all of them. The result would be a cohort of right-to-extreme-right winger facing the Democrats in the 2022 election. Based on the outcome of the 2020 elections, it is extremely unlikely that the American electorate has any appetite left to move the country further to the right. Hence, Trump's strategy will greatly increase the chances for the Democratic electoral victories. Should this be the case, the already "primaried" GOP establishment is not likely to take it lying down.

And that's the best scenario Trump can hope for. If his efforts to "primary" GOP's current ruling class fail to any significant degree, his last effective lever of political power and influence will be gone. I don't think his political relevance can survive either one of the two scenarios.

[CaliforniaPeggy]

1. I like how you think, my dear Beastly Boy! Let's hope you're right. ♥

[TreasonousBastard]

2. Sounds about right. Trumpomania, like all fads, has run its course.

[Jerry2144]

3. Correction

Instead of “firm grip on the cojones of the GOP,” I think you meant “firm grip on the tweezers holding the cojones of the GOP.” The human hand did not evolve to hold something as tiny as their cojones.

[In_The_Wind]

4. You got that right.

[Beastly Boy]

10. Hygiene issues notwithstanding, a hand can be used for that purpose.

It might be exceedingly painful and detrimental to the gripee, but that's the whole idea.

[Jerry2144]

13. With my arthritic hands

With my arthritic hands, I have troubles dropping something as small as marble, let alone BBs. So I would need to use tweezers. I suspect that Tyrant Lizard-brained Cloaca (T-Rump, for short) couldn’t grip Small things with his hands either. Why else would he use those Sharpies instead of normal pens.

[Beastly Boy]

14. Touche! My bad for presuming standard dimensions

[Jerry2144]

23. No worries

Manhood doesn’t properly describe them. Boyhood or babyhood is more like it

[judesedit]

17. lol

[sfstaxprep]

5. 55% Is More Than Enough To Win Nomination

Heck, in the Primaries, even 33% is probably going to be at least enough to put someone in contention, if not ensure, a nomination.

A better poll would be the one that was asked of Turtle. If Drumpf were to become the nominee, would you vote for him?

I'd guess that the % for that would be above 80% amongst repubs, perhaps a bit higher in terms of CPAC attendees.

[Beastly Boy]

11. We are takling about the 55% of the most sniveling minority of the GOP

I am not suggesting this is indicative of the primaries. But this is four years away. I am suggesting there will be changes to Trump's political situation by 2022. And not in a good way for him.

[Escurumbele]

19. I would not worry about it, he will be indicted and will be prevented from running again

He and his kids will face legal troubles, I believe the trump family will become a bad memory and nothing else.

[calimary]

28. I hope this is exactly what happens.

As he and his loathsome opportunistic family fades in power and influence into the nothingburgers they deserve to be.

[Joinfortmill]

6. Agree in great part. And investigations by the truck load are coming.

[FakeNoose]

7. I like how you think

And let's remember that he's off of Twitter permanently. The significance of that will have more meaning in the coming 2 years. Chump's days of grifting for campaign donations are just about over. His troubles with the law will catch up and overtake him very soon.

[no_hypocrisy]

8. I see Trump as a passing fad,

not a cult or political influence.

[Luz]

9. Ehh..he's done now. I think he'll get bored soon enough

when the real $$ dries up. He's more interested in playing golf and bragging to his few hanger-oners about how great he is (was?).

He's going to fade away, politically at least, and it's starting now. No big crowd at CPAC, no big national news coverage, no big outrage about his speech because no one really cared what he said.

By this summer/fall, when life is more "normal" (thanks Joe 💓 he'll be a shell of himself.

[CrispyQ]

12. Trump getting kicked off Twitter was the best thing to happen to America.

Shame on them. They should have done it much sooner. Certainly when the lying about the pandemic started.

[SheltieLover]

15. From your keyboard to karma's ear!

[sarcasmo]

16. The main thing, Trump's demise happens before 2024.

[KS Toronado]

18. I see him sitting in jail before 2024

Two Grand Juries currently targeting him....he's toast.

[Initech]

45. I see a massive coronary or other catastrophic health failure in his future.

Especially given the case of COVID that he got. No way his health can sustain until 2024. His supporters will blame his death on deep state space lasers on the moon owned by George Soros.

[movingviolation]

55. Now that's something worth visualizing..

as my field of fucks to give is barren, I truly and unashamedly pray for this to occur.

[Initech]

59. As l said yesterday I wish nothing but the worst for him!

Given his shitty diet and his near complete lack of exercise, I expect that it won't be long.

[KS Toronado]

60. Or blame it on Antifa or Hillary's E-mails.

[Initech]

61. Remember when Alex Jones said that Scalia died at the hands of a heart attack gun?

[Brogrizzly]

20. Think you are correct,

But I wouldn’t discount the advent of a younger “Trump” figure, right. The rise of this cult of personality will break but it is a really effective tool to certain interests. Which is why I loathe Josh Hawley. My worse words for that man.

[calimary]

31. Josh Hawley IS the very definition of loathsome.

And of v CNN purse he thinks he’s presidential material. All the really disgraceful ones like Cruz and Cotton fancy themselves as such. I’d vote for a banana slug before I’d vote for ANY of ‘em. And a banana slug is far more qualified and deserving than any of these self-flattering treasonous power-hungry weasels could ever be.

[movingviolation]

56. don't forget Madison Cawthorn,

the wheelchair bound hitler youth U.S. Rep from N.C., who likes to vacation at Hitler's retreat, the "Eagles Nest."

[Tommymac]

21. Problem in 2022 is Gerrymandering and Election Suppression

These 2 factors are 100% more threatening to Democracy then the Former President.

And he will succeed in his grifting because the MSM will use him as a wedge issue to draw attention away from these REAL threats to Our way of life.

[wnylib]

30. You nailed it! Also, the people he will

primary are elected Rs in red states. We should definitely try to win there, but just because the orange fascist primaries the existing R office holders is no guarantee that his choices will lose.

[calimary]

34. And isn't it pathetic in the extreme - that this has become their only way to win.

They can’t win on the issues. That ship sailed years ago.

And they can’t win by the numbers because party membership is dwindling, and anybody with a conscience is running for the exits if they haven’t already disappeared. They don’t have the numbers anymore. The only way they can win at this point is to CHEAT.

[George II]

22. By the end of this year or very early next year, he's going to be so deeply enmeshed....

....in legal problems, he'll be virtually out of the political picture altogether.

Right now there are five active and VALID investigations underway. If even one of them uncovers criminal activity (the Vance investigation is the most serious) then mainstream republicans will run from him as fast as they can.

[calimary]

35. So he'll be frantically and desperately trying to raise money.

And what doesn’t go straight into his own pockets will go to legal fees - SOME legal fees anyway. I wonder if this latest load of lawyers is aware of his long track record of stiffing all the different groups of people who worked for him.

[Beastly Boy]

49. Trump is well known for delaying legal proceedings for years.

He will surely be mired in all sorts of lawsuits from now to eternity. But for me, timing the outcomes of those lawsuits is more difficult than predicting the timing of his political demise.

[George II]

53. True, most of those were civil lawsuits, not criminal charges or NY AG charges.

[Warpy]

24. He'll be up to where his neck used to be in legal trouble

while he attempts to keep the faithful fooled that he's still in charge and they're only out to get him.

This is a cult, and cults are persistent until the leader has the good sense to shuffle off this moral coil, something that is unlikely to happen for at least another decade. Numbers will decline, vehemence won't.

That's actually a good thing, since the cult itself is not that large, it's just loud and violent and its own worst advertisement. It will be interesting to see the 2024 convention, Hamiltonian parties of the past were ripped apart by this stuff.

[Politicalgolfer]

25. 2022 is the key

I don't see any rush to embrace Repubs in 2022...just the opposite. The coup attempt, Biden handling the pandemic, stimulus checks, etc. are all against the GOP. When they can't make a comeback, Trump will fade into oblivion and no one will want him campaigning for them.

[pandr32]

26. I thought you were predicting his death

His health does appear to be a ticking time bomb.

[Lunabell]

27. I was hoping you were a psychic with one hundred percent accuracy and were predicting his death.

But, I read your post and found it to be one hundred percent true.

I still want him to die a long protracted death from some horrible unknown parasite that devours him from the inside out.

[Martin Eden]

29. Trump's power is in the rightwing voting base

As long he is a cult hero to those ignorant masses he is king of the Republican Party and can end the political career of almost any Republican politician who dares to stand against him.

However, that does not necessarily translate to power in government. In the general election having candidates further to the right in post-truth crazyland could spell doom for the Republican Party.

At least I hope so.

When Trump won the 2016 nomination I was actually pleased because I thought no way could that malignant orange blowhard get elected president.

[LiberalLovinLug]

41. Yup

"Based on the outcome of the 2020 elections, it is extremely unlikely that the American electorate has any appetite left to move the country further to the right."

I can't accept that on face value. In the 2020 elections, Trump got MORE votes than he did the first time. It was only that Democrats got even more to come out through a lot of hard work.

Trump is a cult hero now til he dies. To a significant minority, he will be revered and admired as much as LBJ is to Democratic voters. I vomit a little my mouth when I say that, but its true.

And already Hawley, Greene, Boebert, are buttressing his cult up. Its not so much a Trump cult, as a white supremacist cult. And Trump is more than willing to trade his soul, to be trashed by the "fake news" and half the country, if in exchange he is immortalized as one of the greatest leaders of the century for America, even if by only 40% of the country.

And those that do will be looking for a new leader to take up his mantle. I don't see anyone yet on the horizon that has the same charismatic appeal, and has that ability to lie so effortlessly in front of crowds. But he or she is coming.

We have to focus not on Trump the man, but on Trumpism, on the danger of raising whole generations on actual fake news which instills hatred and real honest fear of Democrats and that they will literally destroy the county. So much so that it doesn't matter how bad or rotten or corrupt a Republican candidate is, they are 1000x more preferable than a Democrat. To me, that brainwashing of middle America is the US's biggest problem for its democracy's health.

[Mr.Bill]

32. I agree.

The pendulum is swinging the other way and will leave him behind.

[Paladin]

33. trump will be a danger to our democracy until his final breath.

I've heard the "loss of political capital" thing for years, now. Wishful thinking by our side---we need to keep treating trump like the evil, lethal threat he still is. No retreat, no surrender.

[Martin68]

36. I think you make an excellent point about Trump's failures. He dragged the GOP down to his level

and left them stuck in the mud.

[Hortensis]

37. His base has already lost big faith in his ability to smash us for them.

It seems he's almost certain to continue to lose critical amounts of power just through attrition, but, aside from the possibility of the movement just deflating from rejection, how much residual support HE would retain to affect 2022 and then 2024 would probably depend on whether they find a leader to replace him.

Noting that after the 2016 primaries the LW populist leader mostly took a powder for a while, leaving his following without the strong leadership they craved. But no new charismatic leader showed up to fill that vacuum by capturing their enthusiasm, so most were still available to be picked up for 2019-2020.

Of course the trumpists are many times more numerous, crazy, and ready for violence. Both Hawley and Cruz are already running to be the RW populists' new charismatic leader, and given that that party now draws psychopaths like flies, someone else might well arise. That said, would enough conservatives glom on to a new authoritarian leader, or will trumpism mostly turn out to have smothered its own fire?

The other danger would be a return to the "kinder and gentler" authoritarian subversion of democracy RW power blocs were making good progress with before Trump, and are even closer to now.

[Cozmo]

38. Online Death Calculator predicts tRump's actual demise March 2023

There are several sites whereby you can predict one's death. I've done it frequently for MF 45 as well as my own.

[MyOwnPeace]

39. A bit of history......

Douglas MacArthur was a WWII hero and later led some successful efforts in the early parts of the Korean War. However, he did have 'somewhat' of an ego and was quite sure that nobody knew more about anything than he did, including the Commander-in-Chief and the National Security Council. His military success left him feeling that he should be able to use it to influence government policies in foreign relations.
President Harry Truman was 'willing' to allow MacArthur some slack based on his success in Korea - up to a point. However, the more leeway Truman gave him (while Truman kept his own initial thoughts to himself) the more MacArthur pushed Truman and the US Government into undesirable positions.
Finally, MacArthur went too far and made the President, the Secretary of State, and the National Security Council look like they didn't know what they were talking about. Against 'popular' opinion and 'hero status' of MacArthur, Truman fired MacArthur and ordered him home from his mission of guiding the Korean War.
MacArthur was greeted with one of the largest 'Welcome Home Hero' receptions in the US. He had a 'ticker-tape parade' in NYC that was legendary. He was invited to address a joint session of Congress and again greeted as a great American hero. His friends, admirers, and Republicans convinced him that he HAD TO BE our next US president.
As one might expect, soon after all of the excitement of the firing died down, Congressional investigations began. This is when the 'house of cards' began to collapse. Military superiors and Cabinet members testified in the hearings that MacArthur had indeed made things more difficult to conduct National policies and also gave examples of MacArthur's deliberate attempts to over-ride the orders of the Security Council and Commander-in-Chief.
MacArthur's 'last' great stand was to be a main speaker at the 1952 Republican convention. It was the 'nail-in-the-coffin' for MacArthur's political dreams. He was DONE. There were just TOO MANY reasons why he was not acceptable - and those Americans who saw him as a great military hero also realized that he was NOT qualified to be president.
It did take a while - he did look good - for a while. Finally, people realized that there were better options.
Let's hope that happens again this time......

[birdographer]

40. Phooey. I took "demise" literally

and wondered if we could move the timetable up. But you make good points. He saw the writing on the wall when he lost--and he knew he lost, the big lie was just that, a lie.

[Butterflylady]

42. I think you are right on the money.

He's not going to run again unless Bidens numbers are in the tank and that's not going to happen. Even his niece mary said he wouldn't run because he can't take the chance of losing again. He knows full well that Biden won.

Besides that he is starting to fade. When he's not in the spotlight all the time people will move on.

[bucolic_frolic]

43. Despots don't require political capital

They only require opportunity, and force. By definition. So there goes that theory. Be prepared for Trump coup redux.

[Beastly Boy]

51. Despots require a power base.

A despot needs to use his power base successfully. So far, Trump has relied on the far right as his power base to first pressure the GOP establishment and then attempt to take power by force. He failed at second, and, being transparent about how he intends to continue using his power base to blackmail the GOP, his tactics will have consequences. I find it very doubtful that the consequences of his tactics will be what he is expecting, or play to his advantage in the long term.

[bucolic_frolic]

57. The Bolsheviks were a minority party when their insurrection succeeded

Their support was the Army rank and file, and the workers - the Central Executive Committee of Soviets of Workers and Soldiers Deputies. They had maybe 25% support? But they saw opportunity, and they dismantled opposition parties with laws, speeches, press suppression, confusion, and subverting any maneuvers that stood in their way. It was a minority, inside job.

An insurrection may claim to be democratic, to announce it even, but it relies on numbing opposition and going straight for the source of power.

So we're really disagreeing over definition. A power base as you say is required, but that minority support is not political capital in the sense we know it in a democracy - broad support with the public that will tolerate unpopular decisions. It's more a movement of fascist strong arm tactics.

I don't seem him succeeding either, with the caveat of what happens in the Biden economy. Biden could turn out like President Carter - with too much inflation and too little employment - we may be there by August! That gives the GOP, and Trump if he's still upright, an opportunity.

Good OP to promote discussion!

[jcgoldie]

44. hope so but...

Been predicting the political demise of Trump since before the 2016 election then every disastrous and criminal event and election cycle since ... GOP never fails to surprise with their lack of reason.

[Eyeball_Kid]

46. Waiting for Godot much?

Trump's influence and power is already on the wane. Everyone but the Trumpers sees it. His brand was always doomed to failure in the medium to long term. His minions don't have a Treaty of Versailles to infuriate them, as did Hitler's movement in 1930s Germany. As such, Trump's Grievance Party hasn't an historical precedent on which to keep the fires burning at full throttle. Most of his worshippers can't articulate exactly what it is that they want from Trump except a nation of white boys on top, with POC on the subservient bottom. And anyone with a lick of sense knows that there never was ethnic or cultural or racial purity in ANY country. So Trump's white nationalist theme is fantastical at least, delusional at most. Without a past to rectify, it's a party of sneers, insults, bullying, threats, and violence, with no historical justification for action or vengeance.

It will take a while for Trump to fade completely into irrelevance, but I'd set the timetable at the end of autumn, 2021, when the erstwhile Trump Party will get desperate in search of a following that can compete on a national stage.

[ThreeGs]

47. Actually

I would be surprised if he is still living in the U.S. by this time next year.

Right now he is sucking up all the gravy coming from the "Big Lie", but that will probably wind down as people are not so passionate about pouring money into a dead cause. Once this current grift runs dry, he will need to find another "outlet" for his financial gain. Unfortunately, so much publicity from his relentless air time over the last four years has poisoned the well for new "suckers". Add the legal entanglements and potential criminal investigations which will be costing more and more, the degrading of his brand and the lack of an established home base of operations (his tower in New York is no longer viable) makes him a definite flight risk. He is more likely to claim whatever victory is at hand and move to a place (like Belarus) where he can be a member of an oligarchy. He is the only thing that is important. Not his minions, beliefs or family; just his narcissism.

The only reason for him to stay is by completely co-opting the Republican Party and using that political power to insulate himself and his brand (which the family may benefit from as well). But, his demographic is dying out and his positive poll numbers should decline significantly without the bullhorn of the bully pulpit. We will probably know he is considering fleeing to another country when he starts talking about a new hotel or building project somewhere overseas. At some point, he will go and "oversee" the project (even though he doesn't know squat about construction) and just stay there.

That is my guess.

[dupagelib]

48. He's all they've got.

No one on the bench because he coalesced the crazies and the moderates can't win a primary. He's only in it for the grift and he'll use re-election to steal money from the brain dead faithful. The only scenario that worries me is Biden stepping down in favor of Harris. The odds of a black woman perfectly qualified candidate beating him go down. I try not to underestimate the power of the deplorables when they are motivated to act. Of course all his legal troubles may decide this for us. Doesn't a felony dis-qualify you?

[Moral Compass]

50. Spot on

[movingviolation]

52. Oh, you mean political demise...

I'm actually hoping for it in a more literal sense. Something that foul has no place in our organism. Him and his ilk are a malignancy that needs to be biopsied and eradicated.

[andym]

54. Disagree: Cult leaders with a strong base of support like Trump typically don't fade

The large base of Trump supporters puts almost the entire group of national GOP politicians in thrall to him. They think he is their general for the culture wars etc.

Since his appeal is based on being a winner, his entire false stolen election thing inoculates him from that potentially destructive meme, perhaps the only kryptonite available.

[Beastly Boy]

58. There is some evidence to suggest that Trump's prominence as a cult leader is diminishing too.

The credibility of a cult leader depends on how well he can sustain the mythology his cult has built around his personality. Trump doesn't seem to be as successful at it as he used to be. Increasingly, he doesn't live up to the expectations of his worshipers.

We will hear more about it on March 4

[BobTheSubgenius]

62. Your OP is completely plausible, and even likely.

This band of thieves and ne'er-do-wells has surprised me - and I dare say many, many others as well - time and time again. It's not a case of them zigging when you expect them to zag. It's more a case of expecting them to zig, but they go straight ahead and crash through the wall.

Who knows what they might do next? They could be carrying him out of CPAC on their shoulders.

[Blue Owl]

63. Let's hope!