Back of the envelope -- COVID19 is not done with us.

[Pobeka]

I have read the UK variant is 60-70% more infectious than the original Wuhan strain.
The India (now known Delta) variant is 50% more infectious than the UK variant.

So to be a little conservative, the Delta variant is about 2x more infectious than the original Wuhan strain. (1.6 times 1.5 is 2.4).

Let's look at Mississippi, which has the lowest vaccination rate in the USA:
---
Only 34% of the population has had a single dose, and that's not growing much anymore. (Also, 34% is the eligible population, excludes ages less than 12).

About 10% of Mississippi residents have had confirmed cases. Let's assume another 10% have had it, but were so asymptomatic they weren't tested.

So we have 20% that may have some immunity from an infection, plus 34% from vaccination. That means only 54% of the population has some level of immunity.

With the old variant, the CDC/NIH was saying we need to get 70% + of the population vaccinated. But now we have a variant that is twice as infectious.

There is no where near enough herd immunity to stop the Delta variant, and the governor has declared the % of population to vaccinate is "arbitrary".
---

It seems to me this is perfect storm 2.0

Vaccination rates, cultural attitudes are similar for Alabama, Louisiana, Idaho, etc. (Though I haven't looked at confirmed infection percentages for these other states).

A recent study from the Francis Crick institute shows vaccine protection against the variants is not as strong as for the original strain, real world experience/evidence on protection is still rolling in. The study is suggesting a booster for the variants, particularly for older people and front line workers is likely.

I for myself, will still be erring on the side of caution, I am vaccinated and plan to avoid crowds for a while longer.

I think there may be another major wave coming for states with low vaccination rates and populations that have denied either the reality or severity of COVID19.

[roamer65]

1. Third wave this fall.

It will start in the schools and spread outward from there.

[Meowmee]

2. Agree it will start in Schools and other prime places for transmission etc

Possibly in the fall to winter. People will travel from states and other countries with low vaccination rates to states that are doing relatively well. New variants may develop as well. Time will tell. Hopefully it will not be as bad as the initial phases of the pandemic.

[liberal_mama]

3. We did so good in New York last summer

We were only having like 20-30 cases daily in my county in New York. Statewide the tests were less than 1% positive. The schools in my area opened to hybrid in-person learning (2 days a week) on September 30. That's when things started going bad again.

[Meowmee]

9. Yes it is repeating the same mistake

Re open without shutting it down completely first. It could have been stopped initially much sooner.

[Pobeka]

5. Bars. Theatres. Restaurants. Shopping malls. Indoor venues open right now.

It's the twice as infectious part that worries me. Generally it means instead of a 15 minute exposure to infect you only need a 7.5 minute exposure. Or you can be infected at 9 feet away instead of 6 feet away (some smarty pants math there).

I think this goes off the rails by mid July, unless vaccinations really take off, and I hope they do for the protection of those with immune comprimised issues who can't be vaccinated.

[Meowmee]

10. Yes that worries me a lot too

And the fact that we already know the vaccines are not as effective against the current new strains. Lets hope it won’t be as bad. I continue to mask etc.

[CrackityJones75]

11. Do we know that?

I know J&J has some questions about it. But not sure thats true for Pfizer a d Moderna.

[Meowmee]

12. Yes we do

I read an article about a study in England that said pfizer is less also effective against delta than against the original strain. At that point they said 88% effective vs 95% against the original strain. I believe that was based on an environment where most were still masking & sd. I believe that article also stated the other most used vaccine in the UK was astra zenica and that it was only about 60% effective against delta as I recall.

And the effectiveness varies for each person according to immunity as well of course, less effective for the elderly and immune compromised. Your risk of a breakthrough infection also varies according to the numbers of and level of viral exposure, more contacts and higher levels = more chance of a bt infection.

I am not sure about moderna but I know moderna was not as effective against the sa strain I believe a while back since they were working on a booster for that early on.

[Tink41]

4. Vaccinated

I'm still masking up in and out w large amount of people. I don't care if I'm an oddball. Been one my entire life why stop now???

[Initech]

6. Third wave is definitely going to be among red states.

Keep downplaying the vaccine guys, it will end you. And don't come crying to us when it does.

[dutch777]

7. And if that is not bad enough...new variants continue to appear and one may end run the vaccines

India and Brazil worry me greatly in this regard so your erring on the side of caution is smart. Plus if you noticed, by the time they really figure out these variants infectiousness and fatality rate, they are already spread far and wide. There is no warning, it will just happen.

[Pobeka]

8. It's as if you remember what happened just a year ago with a little understood novel virus. n/t

[NH Ethylene]

13. Indeed. The delta variant just became a 'variant of concern' last week!

So in addition to the lag time needed just to identify the differences from a new variant, we get politics and PR slowing things down as well.