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Tue Jun 15, 2021, 10:50 AM

Shootings in U.S. are up -- and experts fear it will get worse

By almost every measure, 2021 has already been a terrible year for gun violence. And many fear it will get worse. Last weekend alone, more than 120 people died in shootings, according to the Gun Violence Archive, with three especially dangerous incidents in Austin; Chicago; and Savannah, Ga., killing two and injuring at least 30.

Through the first five months of 2021, gunfire killed more than 8,100 people in the United States, about 54 lives lost per day, according to a Washington Post analysis of data from the Gun Violence Archive, a nonprofit research organization. That’s 14 more deaths per day than the average toll during the same period of the previous six years.


Researchers note a number of factors they say are driving the upswing, including the unprecedented surge in gun sales. In 2020, a year of pandemic, protests and elections, people purchased more than 23 million guns, a 66 percent increase over 2019 sales, according to a Post analysis of federal data on gun background checks.


Controlling for population, the analysis found that the higher the jump in gun sales between 2019 and 2020, the higher the jump in gun violence that resulted in at least one death.

https://digital.olivesoftware.com/olive/ODN/HoustonChronicle/Default.aspx (pay wall)

https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2021/06/14/2021-gun-violence/ (no pay wall)

There is much more worth reading in the article but the bottom line is that IT REALLY IS THE GUNS.

MORE GUNS = MORE SHOOTINGS. There's no way to deny it.

At the same time other crimes, violent and non violent, are down and remain at near all time lows. It's only gun violence that is up.



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Response to AndyS (Original post)

Tue Jun 15, 2021, 10:54 AM

1. It Doesn't Take An Expert

No Shit Sherlock!

Of course they’re going to get worse. They’re also going to happen forever, because it’s who we are! America!

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Response to AndyS (Original post)

Tue Jun 15, 2021, 10:55 AM

2. It is the guns. End of story.

Look @ Japan no guns = no murders by guns.

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Response to AndyS (Original post)

Tue Jun 15, 2021, 10:55 AM

3. Maybe we have to truly hit bottom before people wake up to the crisis. nt

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Response to AndyS (Original post)

Tue Jun 15, 2021, 11:00 AM

4. Is there a rush on bleed kits yet? If so, I'm guessing it'll be by the gun people.

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Response to AndyS (Original post)

Tue Jun 15, 2021, 11:07 AM

5. I wonder why gun homicides declined steadily from the mid-1990s until 2015-ish

as gun sales were soaring those years? Seems to indicate that more guns don't always lead to more deaths.

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Response to SYFROYH (Reply #5)

Tue Jun 15, 2021, 11:20 AM

6. Interesting

Maybe something to do with the assault weapons and hi capacity magazine ban in the Clinton years that expired. I don’t really know the numbers but the dates of enactment and running out close to line up.

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Response to bottomofthehill (Reply #6)

Tue Jun 15, 2021, 11:21 AM

7. So my above is more of an anecdotal guess

Not based on a lot more than a hunch, but reasonable to me as an explanation.

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Response to SYFROYH (Reply #5)

Tue Jun 15, 2021, 11:50 AM

11. The decline in crime overall has been attributed to the removal of lead in gasoline

which was a major contributor to lead poisoning in congested areas.

As low level lead poisoning decreased so did the violent tendencies in it's victims which began to die off.

I think the bigger question should be "what happened in 2014 to cause the huge jump in murder?" The CDC says the 2019 murder rate was 5.8/100k. The trend is continuing, 2020 was the higher than that and 2021 is running 16% higher than that. We could be well over the 6.8/100k in 1972 reported in your graph.

There was no pandemic in 2014, the economy was soaring, unemployment was low and there wasn't a surge in drug influx or gangs and Trumpism was still two years away.

So SY, do you have an opinion on what happened in 2014 to begin the massive increase in murder rate and why has it continued for so long?

Oh, and FYI the 2019 rate per 100k in the top 80 cities ranges from 11 to 26 per 100,000.

Edited for clarity and to correct year for highest murder rate.

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Response to SYFROYH (Reply #5)

Tue Jun 15, 2021, 12:14 PM

13. Was the big spike from about '85 to '95 attributed to the cocaine wars?

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Response to SYFROYH (Reply #5)

Tue Jun 15, 2021, 12:29 PM

14. In the early '90s AIDS killed a lot of prison inmates and needle-sharing addicts.

 

Crime is directly related to the number of criminals and addicts.

If we legalized all drugs, crime would drop to nothing.

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Response to AndyS (Original post)

Tue Jun 15, 2021, 11:25 AM

8. MORE GUNS MORE SHOOTINGS. There's no way to deny it.

But if you read the whole article-
Researchers caution against drawing causal links, especially during a year as unique as 2020, and Buggs said gun sales are among a number of elements that “are difficult to tease out.” Others have noted that millions of guns were sold in past decades, when crime rates were falling, and have said one year of data is not enough to settle the matter


Also-
At the same time other crimes, violent and non violent, are down and remain at near all time lows. It's only gun violence that is up.


The US saw significant crime rise across major cities in 2020. And it's not letting up

Major American cities saw a 33% increase in homicides last year as a pandemic swept across the country, millions of people joined protests against racial injustice and police brutality, and the economy collapsed under the weight of the pandemic — a crime surge that has continued into the first quarter of this year.

Sixty-three of the 66 largest police jurisdictions saw increases in at least one category of violent crimes in 2020, which include homicide, rape, robbery, and aggravated assault, according to a report produced by the Major Cities Chiefs Association. Baltimore City, Baltimore County and Raleigh, North Carolina, did not report increases in any of the violent crime categories.
https://www.cnn.com/2021/04/03/us/us-crime-rate-rise-2020/index.html

So crime is actually increasing in all areas. You may point out that the WaPo article says crimes are down from the 80s and 90s however that statement is equally true for gun related crimes.

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Response to AndyS (Original post)

Tue Jun 15, 2021, 11:31 AM

9. Guns + inflammatory misinformation/propaganda targeted at those who primarily own guns?

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Response to Chakaconcarne (Reply #9)

Tue Jun 15, 2021, 11:40 AM

10. Personally, can take people who own a gun or two for hunting or home defense and keep them at home.

 

Anything more than that, is the problem.

This is the crud that has to stop:

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Response to AndyS (Original post)

Tue Jun 15, 2021, 12:08 PM

12. I wonder what the connection is between people abusing flight attendants and frontline workers

With the increase in gun violence. Something is going on psychologically that is not positive.

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Response to Renew Deal (Reply #12)

Tue Jun 15, 2021, 12:42 PM

15. I've been wondering the same thing.

Overall crimes like assault are still at long time lows but violent airline confrontations seem to be an anomaly. The airlines have always had a problem with passengers over indulging on alcohol because as cabin pressure decreases alcohol's effects increase. That doesn't explain the recent surge in physical assaults.

At least they don't have guns . . .

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