Harry Enten: How this is the most unpredictable NYC mayoral race in 50 years

[brooklynite]

CNN

(CNN)Poll of the week: A new WNBC/Telemundo 47/Politico/Marist College poll finds Brooklyn Borough President Eric Adams leading the New York City Democratic mayoral primary 24% to Kathryn Garcia's 17%, Maya Wiley's 15%, and Andrew Yang's 13%. All other candidates are in single-digits.

The same poll found that when ranked choice voting was applied that Adams defeated Garcia 56% to 44% in the final round.

Pretty much every other public poll puts Adams on top in voters' first choice, but other surveys show anything from a large Adams lead to a small Garcia advantage in the final round.

What's the point: With the primary on Tuesday, the word "mess" is the only real way to describe the Democratic mayoral primary in the country's most populated and heavily Democratic city.

[KentuckyWoman]

1. I just want to say

I saw that as "Harry Eaten" and had about 6 jokes lined up before I realized I saw that wrong.

I am unfamiliar with Mr. Enten, but I would expect NYC Mayoral races to be particularly messy. There is a lot at stake.

[montanacowboy]

3. Harry Enten

Is the Steve Kornacki of CNN

[brooklynite]

4. More specifically he was the polling expert at 538

[comradebillyboy]

6. He's not nearly as annoying as Steve Kornacki...

[jimfields33]

2. I don't see this as a mess

We’ll see the winner soon enough. Adam’s may win and that’s fine. Garcia may win and that’s fine. Any of them may win for that matter. I don’t see a mess.

[brooklynite]

5. "Soon enough" is apparently "a month from now" or longer...

NYC Board of Elections has a particularly bad record with vote counting, and the new rules on receiving mail-in ballots, curing ballot errors and manually going through 12 rounds of counting will drag things out.

[jimfields33]

7. I know. But New York used to have nothing but one day voting

Even absentee was a bit harder then now under the new name mail in. This is an improvement even though it will take time.

[Hortensis]

8. Agree, but imo it's fine so far because Adams and Garcia are pretty similar,

out of the same reasonably experienced and grounded liberal bowl.

If they were significantly different ideologically, it'd qualify as a mess to me. Primary elections should not be an unstable ideological crap shoot. Whatever its benefits, ranked choice does increase the possibility of bad surprises unintended by any true majority.

[brooklynite]

11. Not how its playing out at all

Morales supporters are unhappy that Wiley is too wishy-washy on "defund the police".

Wiley supporters are unhappy that Scott Stringer is splitting the progressive vote, and the top three candidates are moderate.

Adams supporters are unhappy that Garcia and Yang have agreed on a co-ranking deal to block Adams, which apparently is denying hime his "right" to be the next Mayor of color.

Garcia and Yang supporters are unhappy that Adams is too cozy with developers and is too pro-gun.

Not sure how many people will be satisfied with the final outcome.

[Blue_true]

12. On another race.

How do you see the Manhattan DA race playing out?

It seems that the Assistant State Attorney is the best choice, IMO.

I read today that it is basically a two person race between Weinstein(sp?) and the Assistant State Attorney. The race is making national news due to the Trump Organization criminal probe being run by that office, that is why I read about it here in Florida.

[brooklynite]

14. I'm in Brooklyn (obviously), so I have my own races to try and track...

[Blue_true]

16. Like I said, I am following the Manhattan DA race because of the

potential for criminal charges being filed against the Trump organization, Trump or both.

[brooklynite]

17. Understood, but I have to juggle the Mayor, City Comptroller, Borough President, City Council...

...each with five candidates to rank out of as many as 13. It's keeping me busy.

[Blue_true]

18. Well good luck. Must be really nice to live in a heavily Democratic location.

I am not remotely as lucky.

[electric_blue68]

19. oh, mannn I haven't even looked at any race beyond Mayor...

to think I have to rank choice everyone. Ugh.
I haven't quite made up my mind for Mayor yet, either.

I'm in The Bronx. I guess I know be doing tomorrow (checking the debates, League of Women Voters, Gothamist etc), and part of Tues.
Thank goodness I can walk to my polling place, and that polls are open till 9M.

[Jilly_in_VA]

9. Is it a straight up primary

or do they have ranked choice?

[Blue_true]

13. Ranked choice, unless one person wins 51% outright. nt

[Jilly_in_VA]

20. That doesn't seem likely this year

I'll keep an eye out. I personally like Maya Wiley but I don't think she has a snowball's chance against the machines.

[PortTack]

10. Polls are just not that reliable as has been proven over the last 3 cycles

Saying the mayoral race is unpredictable just lets them off the hook for not having any idea.... anymore that Jon q public walking down the street

[Blue_true]

15. Yeah, but John Q. Public doesn't get big money for walking down the street.