How "Bad" would it have to get to go into another "March 2020" lockdown?

[WarGamer]

I look at the local and State gov't... the Federal gov't...

I can't see them shutting down again.

I'm not sure if 1000's of dead per day would do it...

I see ZERO masks out and about in NoVa and my family says no masks in SoCal either.

[Nay]

1. Interesting. Here in the Richmond area, about a third of the people are

masking up while inside stores, etc., but not outside at all. I think that's the best we can hope for. Of course, everything is open, and restaurants aren't requiring masks to be seated -- that and the bars will be spreading Delta far and wide.

[WarGamer]

2. Lambda seems to have some people staying up at nights...

“Our results indicate that mutations present in the spike protein of the lambda variant of interest confer increased infectivity and immune escape from neutralizing antibodies elicited by CoronaVac,” the study states. CoronaVac is a vaccine manufactured by a Chinese company and that’s used in Peru. The study continues: “These data reinforce the idea that massive vaccination campaigns in countries with high SARS-CoV-2 circulation must be accompanied by strict genomic surveillance allowing the identification of new isolates carrying spike mutations and immunology studies aimed to determine the impact of these mutations in immune escape and vaccines breakthrough.”




We need to see studies with Moderna and Pfizer vs Lambda but the fact that it evades antibodies is bad news.

[Amishman]

54. Coronavac / Sinovac is the weakest of the vaccines

The 'official' numbers on it have it up in the J&J, Phizer, and Moderna range of 85-90's efficacy... But real world examples have it way lower. The Brazilian trial was 50%, and post release data in Chile has it at 67%

I'd keep that in mind when considering variant risk when the sample involves that particular vaccine. It's not a very good vaccine

[beaglelover]

3. There is NO way we will shut down again especially since vaccine's are readily available

and highly effective. Just not going to happen.

[WarGamer]

4. I don't want to sound like a loon

But I think it's just a matter of time until we have vaccine evading variants. In fact we already may.

“Our results indicate that mutations present in the spike protein of the lambda variant of interest confer increased infectivity and immune escape from neutralizing antibodies elicited by CoronaVac,” the study states. CoronaVac is a vaccine manufactured by a Chinese company and that’s used in Peru. The study continues: “These data reinforce the idea that massive vaccination campaigns in countries with high SARS-CoV-2 circulation must be accompanied by strict genomic surveillance allowing the identification of new isolates carrying spike mutations and immunology studies aimed to determine the impact of these mutations in immune escape and vaccines breakthrough.”

I don't want to sound like Science Fiction writer but I just have a feeling that this isn't over.

[beaglelover]

5. But that quote is talking about the Chinese COVID vaccine, not Pfizer or Moderna.

So, I'm hopeful the MRNA vaccines used in the USA will be as effective against this lambda variant as they have been against the other variants. Time will tell.

[WarGamer]

14. Although I AM in the BioTech field...

This isn't my specialty.

As far as I understand, JnJ, Pfizer, Moderna, etc... ALL prompt the body to produce antibodies. These antibodies are kinda' like a little robot with a memory chip, programmed to respond to a specific virus/pathogen...

The fact that a virus is evading an antibody is bad news. The only difference I've heard is that different vaccines produce differing AMOUNTS of antibodies.

Think of it like this (not an accurate explanation, just for illustration). Your antibodies are programmed to attack a pathogen that's a certain size or shape. A pathogen comes along that's a slightly different size or shape and the antibody is worthless.

A better explanation from the interwebz...

**How do mRNA vaccines cause an immune response?
When you receive a dose of an mRNA vaccine, your cells get the blueprint for making part of the coronavirus, called the spike protein. Spike proteins are found on the surface of the coronavirus, and they help the virus enter and infect your cells. They’re only one small part of the virus, so it’s impossible to get COVID-19 from the vaccine itself.

Once your immune cells notice the spike proteins, they will start to make antibodies against it, allowing your body to build its immunity. In other words, your body will already know how to fight off the coronavirus if you’re ever exposed in the future.

**How do viral vector vaccines cause an immune response?
When you receive a dose of the viral vector COVID-19 vaccine, the harmless virus enters your cells and gives the message to start producing spike proteins. They work similarly to the mRNA vaccines in that after the viral vector prompts your cells to make spike proteins, your immune system will start making antibodies against them. This helps to create protection against the coronavirus.



Summary: VV or mRNA vaccines achieve the same thing via different pathways. They tell your body HOW to produce C19 antibodies. If Lambda evades C19 antibodies... the maker of the shot might not matter.

[radius777]

23. Agree, to defeat the virus we need

to have almost everyone vaccinated, so that there are few hosts for the virus to mutate/evolve.

The situation we have now - with a large unvax'd population living side by side with a vax'd population - is not good.

A pandemic is a wartime situation and Western gov'ts have to use a heavier hand in mandating that the population be vax'd. Nobody has absolute rights, and there are many privileges that can be curtailed or revoked, ie use a carrot and stick method. The unvax'd need to be made far more uncomfortable than they currently are. Macron has the correct mindset.

[WarGamer]

25. Agreed... either a bigger and more yummy carrot

Or start using the stick

[Ms. Toad]

6. Permanently injured and dead children, be damned.

Guess that will help solve the overpopulation problem if we treat children as expendable.

[beaglelover]

8. So far, children who get COVID survive very well. I guess we'll see what happens when they all go

back to school in a few weeks. I'm quite confident they won't start dropping dead if they get COVID and if they survive they then have natural immunity for a while anyway. We've got to learn to live with this virus, it's never going away and we can't go on living as we have the past 1 1/2 years.

[Ms. Toad]

20. Children are prohibited from being vaccinated.

It is our obligation to protect them - at a very minimum until they are eligible for vaccination.

That requires us to be more responsible about ensuring that not only do the unvaccinated not infect them - but that those of us who are vaccinated take proper precautions to ensure we do not become infected and transmit it to them. That means wearing masks to add layers of protection. That means isolating when we know we are exposed. That means testing when we know we have been exposed. There is no other responsible way to care for our children.

And children do die, and are permanently disabled as a result of COVID 19 - and early reports are that the delta variant is worse.

https://www.wyff4.com/article/musc-childrens-hospital-pediatric-icu-beyond-capacity-with-covid-and-winter-viruses/37101438#

https://www.wyff4.com/article/musc-childrens-hospital-pediatric-icu-beyond-capacity-with-covid-and-winter-viruses/37101438#

https://www.sunherald.com/news/coronavirus/article252748863.html

https://www.beaconjournal.com/story/news/coronavirus/2020/12/09/akron-childrens-hospital-says-child-covid-19-patients-increasing/6505807002/ (older, but still addresses the incorrect assertion that children who get COVID survive very well)

https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/paho-warns-younger-people-filling-up-intensive-care-covid-19-wards-2021-05-05/

https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/paho-warns-younger-people-filling-up-intensive-care-covid-19-wards-2021-05-05/ (again- older, but addresses a dangerous complication that impacts ONLY children)

[NH Ethylene]

34. Delta is causing more severe disease in children than the previous variants.

I have read that children have fewer ACE2 receptors in their noses than adults, which made them somewhat resistant to severe disease. But the viral load of the Delta variant in those who are contagious is higher and the spike protein is better able to hook on to the ACE2 receptors. So children are now more vulnerable.

Unfortunately, I can't find any links for this, so take it with a grain of salt. If anybody has any links with details on the reasons for children's increased susceptibility to the delta variant, I would love to read more.

[boston bean]

40. Yeah. But their parents might.

I am sorry. I can’t be happy and take glee in having children lose a parent. Even if they were stupid enough not to get vaccinated.

[The Magistrate]

7. I Share Your Pessimism, Sir

And of course by now the people most at risk, who will be providing the great bulk of those thousands of corpses, are precisely those most resistant to acting in service of a public good.

Somehow oppositional-defiant disorder has been raised from a pediatric diagnosis for children who seem unable to leave the 'terrible twos' behind to become a political principle deeply rooted in a broad swathe of society.

[WarGamer]

15. +1000 well said... like always

[ananda]

9. We've passed that point.

It's always been bad enough.

[Retrograde]

10. Maybe not shutdown again, but

I expect there will be some tightening of restrictions in coming weeks.

Most people here (Bay Area) mask in stores and keep some distance outdoors, but cases are creeping up again, so who knows what the Fall will bring.

[SharonClark]

11. Where in the US was there an actual lockdown?

[Effete Snob]

17. Good question

[liberal_mama]

29. I'm wondering the same thing, I live in Western New York and there was never an actual lockdown

There were some restrictions and mask wearing, but nothing that was what I'd call an actual lockdown. I was able to leave my house, take walks, get takeout, outdoor dining, go shopping, ect. Yet the covidiots were screaming like we were boarded up in our homes.

[Tomconroy]

12. There was a study today in the New England Journal of Medicine

Establishing that two shots of the Pfizer vaccine are highly effective against the Delta variant. A case can be made that because the Delta is more contagious it may infect more people, but the vaccines are highly effective. Wearing masks outdoors, unless someone is spitting in your face, does nothing.

[WarGamer]

16. Lambda?

“Our results indicate that mutations present in the spike protein of the lambda variant of interest confer increased infectivity and immune escape from neutralizing antibodies elicited by CoronaVac,” the study states. CoronaVac is a vaccine manufactured by a Chinese company and that’s used in Peru. The study continues: “These data reinforce the idea that massive vaccination campaigns in countries with high SARS-CoV-2 circulation must be accompanied by strict genomic surveillance allowing the identification of new isolates carrying spike mutations and immunology studies aimed to determine the impact of these mutations in immune escape and vaccines breakthrough.”

[Tomconroy]

18. I've read that paragraph three times. I hope one day it is translated into English.

I think it means: we don't know much.

[WarGamer]

21. To summarize...

the latest variant might evade antibodies produced by vaccines and the Lambda variant is a real mf'er... way more deadly than what we've seen up to now.

[Tomconroy]

26. Now I've read it five times. I don't think it says what you claim it says.

[WarGamer]

30. Maybe a 6th time? ;)

[Tomconroy]

33. You made me do it. I actually looked it up.

https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2021/07/22/1019293200/the-lambda-variant-coronavirus-what-you-should-know

I'm not overly worried.

[WarGamer]

38. good link...

Basically the experts say don't panic (yet)

[Initech]

37. There's an even worse variant than this?

[beaglelover]

24. It does not mean anything for the USA since we did not use the Chinese vaccine.

[WarGamer]

27. Did you read the extended post I wrote for you?

The vaccine tells the body to produce antibodies.

If a virus evades antibodies it doesn't matter which vaccine caused the antibodies to be produced.

[DemocraticPatriot]

52. Not good...

Good thing I don't know which box my copy of 'The Stand' is in; I might be tempted to read it again
(which would do nothing good for my mental state)

[sdfernando]

13. I'm in SoCal and see a lot of masks but also a lot of maskless

More people are opting for no mask. I myself am masking up quite a lot...pretty much anywhere I have to be indoors or around a lot of people. I don't mask up when I go for after dinner walks or weekend hikes, but I don't encounter a lot of people doing those activities.

[Stallion]

19. Florida's Cases Have Jump TEN TIMES in the Last Month-Well Done DeSantis

with cases over 12,647 today

[WarGamer]

22. the first US case of the Lambda variant was diagnosed this week

[Tomconroy]

35. There have been 700 cases found in the US to date.

[WarGamer]

36. wow I thought it was one in Houston... :(

[SoCalNative]

28. Where in SoCal?

In my city I see most if not all, at least in the stores, wearing masks. Walking down the street it's 50-50 but I don't wear one outside in non-crowded areas either.

[WarGamer]

31. Family in Ventura and Orange Counties...

Here in NoVa I'm in Stafford County... 10-15 min out of Woodbridge/Dale City

[SoCalNative]

32. Ah

I'm in LA County. Not surprised about Orange & Ventura as there were many maskholes there from the start.

[DET]

45. Same Here

Same in Fairfax - very few masks now, which surprises me since we had excellent mask compliance before the ill advised CDC statement. Stafford is more conservative, so I’m not too surprised there. Personally, I mask up every time I go out and I wish more people would given the uncertainty of the new variants. But I don’t see new mandates unless we have a catastrophic outbreak.

[Raine]

48. Same here, I'm in the burbs of Los Angeles County and see masks

everywhere inside businesses.

[roamer65]

39. Adequate masking and two jabs and one will be extremely resistant to Delta.

All I can say to he unvaccinated is...

[Pobeka]

41. I think it's all political calculus now.

Governors have always had access to underlying facts about the number of mortalities and severe hospitalizations to expect with COVD and it's variants.

What's changed now is DEMs have a significant edge in being vaccinated.

Many elections are won by small margins, and deaths of GOP voters, subsequent anger by surviving family for being misled now matters for a lot of local and federal elections, which can likely swing a number of those seats to DEMs.

So GOP leaders may just lie, say, "hey, we gotta lockdown because Biden has screwed this thing up". Their constituents are not known for deep thinking or memories that last more than a couple of months, so it'd work.

[Mad_Machine76]

50. They're already trying (or at least some pundits are) to blame Biden

Politico pushed out a turd a day or two ago suggesting that Biden disbanded some kind of anti-disinformation outfit to (I think?) try to find some kind of equivalence between Trump's mishandling of the pandemic and Biden.

[LetMyPeopleVote]

42. Harris County is a higher alert level

We had a zoom attorney meeting today and the firm is slowing down the full re-opening of the firm. While we were on the zoom call, Judge Hidalgo raised the threat level for Harris County. We were supposed to have going away lunch for a long time employee and cake day for all of the birthdays this month. Both events have been cancelled. The major gripes were about cancelling cake day

I have started wearing my mask again inside supermarkets and other stores.

[Raftergirl]

43. I think by the end of the summer (maybe even sooner)

some of the Red states are going to be so inundated with severe covid cases and death they are going to have to institute closing down all but essential services, mandate mask wearing and possibly mandate vaccines. I don’t think they will have a choice - that’s how bad it is going to get. Delta is going to get everyone who is unvaccinated and it’s not going to take too long.

I anticipate hospitals are going to have to send home everyone but the very worse cases.

I just saw on the CBS Evening News that a hospital in New Orleans issued a statement today telling people not to come to the ER unless they are extremely sick as they are completely full.

[Sympthsical]

44. I feel like we're about to find out

The callousness of people in this thread bothers me. "Eh, so what if the kids get it!"

Yeah. Except we have no idea of what the long-term effects of contraction will be. Ok, it doesn't kill them. Will it affect neurological development? Will physical symptoms manifest later as their bodies grow and mature?

But, sure, let's gamble, baby! Mama wants to go see a movie!

k.

[tishaLA]

46. not sure where your family in SoCal is

but in my area of LA the vast, vast majority of people still wear masks *outside* and never stopped....and now, of course, we have the new indoor mask mandate what's basically not going to change behavior of anyone in any part of LA I've been to.

[FakeNoose]

47. This Delta variant came from India just a few months ago

... where - allegedly - about 3 million people have died in the last year. Actually there's no way to get a handle on it because their birth and death records are reported differently than ours.

Do you think we're ready to face the possibility of losing 5 times more people than we lost last year? I really hope that's not what's happening, but it happened in India and their virus is spreading like wildfire here now.

[Raine]

49. Where Iam in Southern California everyone is wearing masks

not so much outside but everywhere inside.

[Amishman]

51. apocalyptic, bodies in the streets type bad. There just isn't public will left

The lockdowns were only accepted as they were meant to be much shorter term than they ended up being. This combined with fear of the unknown, lead to an unusual public willingness to go along with it. Once things were closed, there was greater control over reopening.

People are tired of putting life on hold, tired of sacrifice for a greater good. The hand of death would need to be reaching into each family and making it personal before many would do it again.

[DetroitLegalBeagle]

53. Agreed

It would have look like end of days to get most of the country to lockdown again.