As the US withdraws, China pins regional stability hopes on the Afghan Taliban

[Devil Child]

As the US withdraws, China pins regional stability hopes on the Afghan Taliban

Mr Wang stood shoulder to shoulder with Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, political chief of the Afghan Taliban, against the same backdrop where American officials were hosted only days earlier.

The optics are telling — Beijing sees the Taliban as a legitimate and important political force in neighbouring Afghanistan.

"The Afghan Taliban is a pivotal military and political force … and is expected to play an important role in peaceful reconciliation and reconstruction in Afghanistan," Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Zhao Lijian told a press briefing.

Torek Farhadi, a former advisor to the Afghan government, told the ABC that Afghanistan's President Ashraf Ghani is "besieged in Kabul" with the Taliban now controlling vast swathes of the country — and Beijing is shrewdly moving to manage the new political reality forming on its doorstep.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-08-09/china-afghanistan-war-united-states-withdrawal/100355708

The beginnings of a new era in strategic alignment between Pakistan, Afghanistan, and China. I'm sure China is very pleased with the US developing Bagram AFB for them. It will be very useful in training the future Taliban Air-force.

[Vogon_Glory]

1. I suspect that the Chinese and the Taliban will fall out

The Chinese have ample reason to fear a radical Islamic insurgency on their western borders. I doubt that the Taliban’s leadership will resist the temptation to become a training ground and staging area for terrorist attacks on Chinese targets.

[multigraincracker]

2. Spot on.

I agree.

[Vogon_Glory]

4. And another thing

The Taliban and Al Qaeda are Siamese twins. The Taliban was incapable of separating itself out from Al Qaeda back in 2001. They’re still intermeshed twenty years later.

They probably think that the US would help them if the People’s Liberation Army comes marching in. If so, the little (expletives deleted) are likely to be astonished and horrified by our likely indifference.

[multigraincracker]

8. Afghan was a big part of the fall of the USSR economy.

Surely didn't help ours. Chinas turn now.

[Devil Child]

6. It would bring me great joy if this occurs

But my cynical side looks to Putin, Kadyrov, and Chechnya as an example of Jihad being switched off when convenient for the Jihadist.

[Irish_Dem]

11. Do you think the Chinese can bribe or seduce the Jihadists into compliance?

I am wondering how the Chinese will tackle one of their first international tests.

[Devil Child]

13. Yes, depending on how they play it

China will most-likely allow and support the Taliban to do whatever it wants domestically in Afghanistan. Taliban will green-light all those fancy Belt and Road Initiative projects visualized in Afghanistan by China. Pakistan will accommodate and support the same in addition to their own goals. Everyone in charge gets what they want, Jihadists dreaming of Jihad slowly get wiped out just like Kadyrov did to Chechen Jihadists who didn't get in line.

I'm hoping everyone involves fails but China seems to be exploiting the initiative quite effectively.

[Irish_Dem]

15. Afghanistan mountains have $trillions of rare earth minerals. China wants them badly.

China also wants the Belt and Road Initiatives.

So China will allow the Taliban to do whatever they want internally, as long as the Taliban can deliver a stable
and safe environment for China's huge investment in their infrastructure. The Taliban will not interfere with China's repression of Muslims.

Exactly, history tells us that once power has shifted, the rebel groups which produced the shift are expendable.
The new power structure does not need them any longer.

The whole thing sounds good on paper, but we shall see. The Taliban and other rebel insurgents may not like China's attitude towards Muslims. Pakistan is a wild card.

The US and Russia have tried an aggressive military strategy for decades to no avail. Let's see if China can seduce the Taliban with money and opportunity.

If China can pull this off, I think they are on on their way to superpower status.

[Devil Child]

24. Good post and I agree with your conclusion

Again, I do hope the Chinese fail in their Afghanistan Belt and Road dreams while simultaneously hoping the Afghan people succeed.

[Irish_Dem]

25. I have mixed feelings about it.

I certainly do not like the idea of China becoming a superpower. And I do not like the idea of the Taliban gaining control of Afghanistan.

However, everything the West and Russia has done in regard to Afghanistan has failed. If China can finesse the Taliban with promises of wealth and power, and entice them to provide a stable country, then it would be better than the endless war there. And would bring a great deal of stability to the entire region. This is a good thing.

I would assume the Taliban would still be a very repressive regime (like China), but at least there would not be wholesale slaughter of its people. And as China learned, eventually the most repressive regime has to ease up on the people or face rebellion.

The US has tried its usual heavy handed approach to settling international crises involving people of color, bring in the military industrial complex and start dropping depleted uranium bombs on women and children. And let the American taxpayer foot the bill, to the detriment of our own economy. And nothing is accomplished, the situation is worse at the end of our aggressive tactics. Except of course the US military industrial complex became vastly rich at taxpayer expense.

Let's see what China can do. They have invested $billions in Africa infrastructure. Have had a military presence there for some time. China is transactional in their stragegy, they throw a lot of money at a country, but fully expect and indeed receive something in return. I think dropping tons of money on a country is better than dropping tons of bombs. The China solution to Afghanistan may be the best we can reasonably hope for, given the dynamics of the situation.

And I think China's trajectory to superpower status is a given at this point. Probably not much we can do about it. Due to foreign influence and the help of the GOP, America's status is greatly weakened as we fight an internal civil war of sorts.
The US is perhaps fatally divided, status damaged, it is only natural that China and Russia want to fill the vacuum. I think Russia is a paper tiger, the country has been stripped of all its wealth by Putin and the Russian oligarchs. All Putin really has are his sly KGB tricks and maneuvers. That said, he has been quite successful in his attempt to bring down the US. But can he really fill the void and become a superpower, I am doubtful.

China is able and willing to step up to the plate, it has the money, power and determination to do so. And can play the long game.

Time will tell, all eyes are on them right now as we watch how they handle Afghanistan.

[Irish_Dem]

10. The world will be watching how this unfolds. The stakes are very high for China.

[SheltieLover]

3. China is negotiating with terrorists?

What could go wrong?.

[Rustyeye77]

7. No shit.

Now we are casting our lot with China.

Where is europe?

[SheltieLover]

9. I've read that Afghanistan is where empires go to die

Wouldn't bother me if commie regieme goes down that path.

No inference regarding Chine culture or Asian people. I have great respect for both..

[roamer65]

17. China eventually will do to the Taliban as its doing to the Uighurs.

[SheltieLover]

18. Whatever that is, it sounds ominous

[roamer65]

19. Genocide.

[SheltieLover]

20. Yes, that will likely happen

[Irish_Dem]

5. Without regional stability, China's dream of being a superpower is threatened.

It is time for China to step up to the plate and deal with their neighbor.

[Turbineguy]

12. "..... peaceful reconciliation and reconstruction....."

ugh.... yeah.

[Rustyeye77]

14. And we're supposed to trust the Chinese regime.

What could possibly go wrong?

Pretty much the worst idea ever.

[roamer65]

16. The Chinese have the manpower and ruthlessness to successfully occupy the country.

The next one in there is either China or Iran…maybe a mix of both.

https://thehill.com/opinion/international/562037-china-will-be-the-next-empire-to-enter-the-afghan-graveyard

[themaguffin]

21. Sounds like the first act of China's turn in the Afghan abyss...

[LanternWaste]

22. What leads you to surmise China will have success where no others have?

"new era in strategic alignment between Pakistan, Afghanistan, and China."

What leads you to surmise China will have success where no others have? Bejing's warm and generous policies towards religious fundamentalism and ethnic minorities? Suggesting two books for you to read as your imaginative conclusion seems... naïve at best.

Lesson number one-- No two countries are the same (obvious of course, but apparently needs to be said).


Shadow of the Dragon by Henry J. Kenny
Economic Reforms in Three Giants by Richard E. Feinberg

[Devil Child]

23. I sincerely celebrate you patting yourself on the back for your book-list accomplishments

A healthy self-esteem is essential for personal wellness. I will check them out next time I'm looking for new titles.

Post #15 describes something similar to my thoughts and observations pretty well.

As always, I see you seeing me and am thankful for your salt as salt is a dietary essential.