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@Redistrict
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Aug 16, 2021
NEW YORK: strategists I've spoken w/ tell me strong census numbers in NYC could help Dems purge as many as *five* of the eight GOP seats in the state.
In the hypothetical below, Dems would gerrymander the current 19D-8R map (left) into as brutal as a 23D-3R rout (right).
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Dave Wasserman
@Redistrict
In the scenario above, only three Rs would be spared: Reps. Andrew Garbarino #NY02, Elise Stefanik #NY21 and Chris Jacobs #NY23.
Every Dem incumbent would get a double digit Biden seat (including Maloney #NY18 & Delgado #NY19).
6:03 PM · Aug 16, 2021
Link to tweet
TEXT
@Redistrict
NEW YORK: strategists I've spoken w/ tell me strong census numbers in NYC could help Dems purge as many as *five* of the eight GOP seats in the state.
In the hypothetical below, Dems would gerrymander the current 19D-8R map (left) into as brutal as a 23D-3R rout (right).
Image
Image
5:57 PM · Aug 16, 2021
We have a situation here in PA where the red counties have lost population and the blue and purple have gained. And since PA is losing a seat, there is a potential for a GOP seat to be lost (we are currently tied 9(D) - 9(R) by State Supreme Court redrawing of the line in 2018). However we have a GOP-majority state legislature, so that will be a difficult journey, although in contrast to 2010, when the GOP had a trifecta (legislature, governor, State Supreme Court), this go-around we have a double (governor, State Supreme Court), with the legislature still being majority GOP (by their gerrymandering).
The Philly Inquirer had an analysis piece on that yesterday -
by Jonathan Tamari and Jonathan Lai
Published Aug 15, 2021
Pennsylvania — and its politics — are moving in two different directions. New census data show that metropolitan areas like Philadelphia, the Lehigh Valley, Pittsburgh, and Harrisburg are growing — sometimes substantially — thanks to sharp upticks in Latino, Asian, and multiracial residents. Largely white rural areas, meanwhile, are shrinking in population and influence. Pennsylvania grew by about 300,000 people over the last decade, but most of it was concentrated in cities and suburbs.
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Redistricting implications
Pennsylvania will lose a seat in the U.S. House because it didn’t grow as fast as the rest of the country, and the latest data provide some guide points for the state’s high-stakes redistricting. The new lines, drawn after every census, could help shape Pennsylvania’s House districts and, in turn, which party has the upper hand in the 2022 midterms. Each of the new districts will need to grow to around 765,000 people, from 722,000. The changes could put some incumbents in danger. For example, the Scranton-area district held by Democratic Rep. Matt Cartwright needs to grow by about 52,000 people. The district already leans right, and most of the surrounding area it could expand into is even more conservative.
Democratic Reps. Susan Wild, of Lehigh County, and Chrissy Houlahan, of Chester County, may be on more solid footing. Their districts are closer to the required population count. So barring massive political surgery, the districts might not have to change much — making it harder for Republicans to add more conservative territory. Meanwhile, Republican districts could see substantial change, particularly in the deep-red central, southwestern, and northwestern parts of the state, where the population has dropped dramatically. Five of the current Republican-held districts stand at least 70,000 voters short of the new size requirement. Democrats argue that areas losing people should also lose the House seat — a move that could force two GOP districts to combine, effectively eliminating one Republican seat.
The congressional lines will be negotiated by the Republican-controlled state legislature and Democratic Gov. Tom Wolf. State House and Senate districts will be redrawn by a five-member commission including the Democratic and Republican leaders of both chambers and a tiebreaker, University of Pittsburgh leader Mark A. Nordenberg, who was appointed by the state Supreme Court. Because these districts are smaller than the congressional ones, they may feel population shifts more acutely. Population trends generally favor Democrats.
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Lots more: https://www.inquirer.com/politics/election/pa-politics-geography-census-redistricting-data-20210815.html
I'd be just fine going back to being District 20 - which we were for most of the time since I've been voting - or even joining nearby District 19 since it's close enough that we see Antonio Delgado's campaign ads and I'd certainly prefer him to Stefanik. Both 20 and 19 are Democratic districts now - and we were as well until longtime Rep. Bill Owens retired. 
Maybe you will luck out when it comes to redrawing the lines!
But when we got redistricted, we were joined with the ones to the north - but we got Bill Owens at the time and he was a moderate Democrat. Previously, I worked on the campaign for Scott Murphy, the Dem who replaced Kirsten Gillibrand after she was appointed senator (when Hillary Clinton became Obama's SoS). He was really terrific - and he was local which was very cool since he knows the area - but he lost his second election to a Republican.
And I thought I saw signs of cheating of sorts already. Scott and his Republican opponent (Chris Gibson) had a debate, and the audience was full of these red-shirted senior citizens. I was told that he had them bused in (after giving them lunch) and they were pretty disruptive, though some of them got confused about what they were cheering for. 
When I saw the campaign ads for Antonio Delgado, I really wished we could have him instead of Stefanik.
has Long Island accounted for correctly. Suffolk County is not that blue... not even blue really. Not sure how you gerrymander that away.
