GOP losing 1000 voters a day and climbing

[katusha]

Last edited Mon Aug 23, 2021, 06:09 PM - Edit history (1)

At this point DeSantis and Abbott might as well be passing out cyanide Kool-Aide at campaign events.


edited: WOW! never had this kind of response, should probably explain further. source data from CDC:
https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailycases
as you can see the trend is moving up to 1,000 deaths per day. 99% of deaths are unvaccinated and of the unvaccinated the odds skew towards GOP voters, not all, but most. so that puts us at about 60% of daily deaths are GOP, and for every death I assume at least 1 person who has the veil of lies lifted and who may not vote DEM, but will definately not vote for this current iteration of the anti-democratic party.

[PortTack]

1. Good news MONDAY!! Thx for posting

[gopiscrap]

2. you mean losing gop voters by them dying?

[Hugh_Lebowski]

3. Pretty sure that's the gist (nt)

[gopiscrap]

9. excellent

[LeftInTX]

14. No one knows if they are GOP voters...

Unless the original poster has access to voting records or more data, I think this is BS...

1,000 dead people in Texas could be:
Non-voters, non-registered, not eligible to be registered, GOP or Democratic
There are blue areas in both states.
There are lots of low income people/minorities who aren't getting the vaccine. Reasons: Too busy. Working several jobs. Imaging long lines to get vaccines, no internet etc...

[Pinback]

20. Yep.

The cheerleading of COVID deaths is not only appalling, it’s not even accurate.

[Treefrog]

68. Thank you.

Apparently it gives some people a great deal of glee to think of others dying a horrible death.

[ShazzieB]

25. I agree.

I was getting ready to ask for a source, but after reading the comments I'm not going to bother.

[FarPoint]

28. Thank you....

DU needs to stay more " accurate" with claims...

[diverdownjt]

36. The claim for this post was an opinion, that's obvious...so what are you talking about?

At this point DeSantis and Abbott might as well be passing out cyanide Kool-Aide at campaign events.

[LanternWaste]

60. Ten bucks says you fail to see the irony in your having said that.

[FarPoint]

61. I know...

even DU experience some of the " Upside Down World" comments...

[LiberalFighter]

4. I'm okay with that. By any legal means of course. :)

Considering that they have a lower percentage of their group vaccinated makes it likely.

[samsingh]

5. it this a fact or just speculation?

[diverdownjt]

38. opinion

[samsingh]

40. ok

[SKKY]

6. And this is based on what?

[diverdownjt]

39. opinion

[Marius25]

7. They're not all GOP voters.

Keep in mind lots of blacks and Hispanics are vaccine hesitant.

But the GOP doesn't need those voters they're losing. They have cheating and gerrymandering on their side.

[Hugh_Lebowski]

12. The poll posted here on DU today re: Biden and Trump voters and their vax levels

Says that 90% of Biden voters are vaxxed, but only 50% of Trump voters are.

That would mean out of a cohort of 100 people, assuming Biden and Trump voters are split evenly (obviously there's a few more Biden ones, but leaving that aside for the moment as it's not a huge difference):

Biden, vaxxed: 45
Biden, unvaxxed: 5
Trump, vaxxed: 25
Trump, unvaxxed: 25

This is obviously a 'back of napkin' calculation, but roughly 5 Trump voters are likely dying for every 1 Biden voter, if the poll is accurate.

[former9thward]

16. The poll is not accurate because the math doesn't work for the total vaccinated in the U.S.

Around 70% of U.S. has been vaccinated but amoung the voting age it is far higher. Close to 85% or higher above 50 years old which is the group that votes the highest.


https://www.mayoclinic.org/coronavirus-covid-19/vaccine-tracker

[Hugh_Lebowski]

18. Perhaps people were just asked in the poll 'Trump Voter' or 'Biden Voter'

As opposed to 'who did you physically vote for', i.e. everyone was eligible for the survey regardless of 'actual voting'?

I don't know either way but I don't find it hard to imagine that the 90% and 50% are accurate, and don't think it matters much whether people actually cast a vote in the last election for the purpose of the discussion. How they self-identify is more the question at hand

[spooky3]

30. Your own link contradicts you. If you look at the graph for the full population

(Including ineligible), you’ll see that the percentage ranges 50-60% for 1-2 doses.

If you look at the bar graphs by age ranges and do some rough arithmetic (taking into account that the numbers of people in each range are not the same), it appears that around 70% of the voting age population is vaccinated. Given that groups of Biden voters and Trump voters are approximately equal in size (Biden’s are slightly higher) and if you assume that non-voters break into vaccination categories in roughly the same proportions, you get 90% plus 50% divided by 2 = about 70% of voters are vaccinated.

[LanternWaste]

54. Kinda like when you told us "boycotts never work!"?

[LeftInTX]

17. Do you have a link to the poll

We don't have proof that those dying are GOP....

Keep in mind that GOP tends to be in rural areas where transmission is a bit lower....

[Hugh_Lebowski]

21. Yes ...

https://www.democraticunderground.com/100215772916

[LeftInTX]

31. Data is from April....

Link to tweet

/photo/1

[Hugh_Lebowski]

33. No, it also includes data from April (nt)

[diverdownjt]

41. Again more opinion which is fine...why is everyone so upset.....

over someone's opinion.

[Hugh_Lebowski]

44. My post was based on logical assessment of available statistics

My opinion was not really part of it.

Just sayin'

[LeftInTX]

46. If Texas turns blue, I owe you!

[Celerity]

48. that OP called a fact (that African Americans have lower vaccination rates) a lie, all based off one

poll, a poll that did not even include a racial breakdown for A-A's vax rates, so not much credibility there.

[Hugh_Lebowski]

49. Okay but all I care about is the math, not extraneous commentary by a poster :)

Showing how a 90% vs 50% difference is more meaningful than it might first appear ... assuming equal numbers in each camp, basically works out to 5 unvaccinated Trumpists for every 1 unvaxxed Biden voter.

And since it's almost entirely unvaxxed people who are dying, it makes sense to conclude that Cult45 is dying at a considerably higher rate.

A Trumpist also is, in my estimate, more likely to avoid masks and social distancing as well, so I'd not be that shocked if it's actually more than 5:1 ratio.

[Celerity]

50. My main issue with that OP was false projection about vax rates within the A-A community

I do believe that many more Trumpers are dying than Dems.

[Hugh_Lebowski]

51. Well, that assertion was not logically backed up by any facts/stats presented, so ...

I agree

[Celerity]

52. fair enough, and I always enjoy your posts, Hugh

[Hugh_Lebowski]

53. Back atcha!

[Treefrog]

57. This.

This is one reason I hate the grave dancing. We are losing people too…blacks and Hispanics still affected by this disease more than whites.

I really hope the Pfizer approval starts to convince people.

[Tree Lady]

62. And those on far left that go to back doctors

Use supplements and don't believe in vaccines, believe in eating healthy, exercise which is good except vaccines.

I use to go to a natural path doctor but he was too much into supplements. I did like that he encouraged me to eat healthy.

[BannonsLiver]

8. IMO if you look at the 2018 race between DeSantis and Gillum

It’s likely if not a certainty there are more 2018 Gillum voters alive today than 2018 DeSantis voters, which already skewed towards the 65+ crowd.

[OAITW r.2.0]

10. Another positive outcome...the collective IQ of the US is probably increasing. nt

[ffr]

26. Bwah!

Funny, but true!

[LeftInTX]

11. Are they in red areas in these states?

There are blue areas in Texas and Florida

Not everyone who is dying is GOP.....
Not everyone who is dying votes.....

Unless you can show that they are Republicans, I call BS and it won't make a dent...

[LymphocyteLover]

35. no doubt significantly more Repubs are dying at this point

[DemocraticPatriot]

64. The information that we do have, as well as common sense,

support that conclusion.

[SarcasticSatyr]

15. While it might be a delightful thought ...

I question how accurate it is ....

[tinrobot]

22. Less than 2500 deaths in Afghanistan over 20 years.

They're killing more than that many every three days.

[TlalocW]

23. I've told several conservative anti-vaxxers

We can reach herd immunity two ways - vaccines which would be faster and less painful or by your side dying. It's not nice, but it's the truth. It is what it is.

TlalocW

[IronLionZion]

24. There's a big regional impact now in the southeast

which tends to be GOP. And cases are higher in red counties.

Blue cities tend to be more vaccinated than the rural areas.

They're trying to infect school kids now, and might be trying to destroy public education since private schools have strict mask mandates.

[zuul]

27. Umm, what? How?

[onecaliberal]

29. Play stupid games, win stupid prizes.

This isn't going to end well for them.

[TheRickles]

32. I assume that this post is meant figuratively, not literally.

[left-of-center2012]

34. What are you referring to?

Got any links, or is this just your analysis/opinion?

[ismnotwasm]

37. Good.

[monkeyman1]

42. another reliable source ?

[FakeNoose]

43. I agree that the GOP isn't getting any new voters - they aren't growing

However I doubt that they're losing 1K per day, that number seems a little optimistic. My guess would be more like a few hundred per day.

We have to stop them from disenfranchising registered voters - that is their major plan for winning elections from now on. They know that can't win unless they cheat. They know they can't appeal to new voters because their message is crazy and off the wall, too conservative, racist and angry for most Americans to even abide. That's why they have to cheat, and kicking registered voters off the voter registration list is their best chance of doing it. This is happening in almost every state, and some efforts are more blatant than others.

Another way they try to cheat is gerrymandering - redrawing the Congressional District maps to favor the GOP candidates (especially the incumbents.) It's happening, or trying to happen, right now because they can only do it after the 10-year Census. Many of the northern and midwestern states have lost some population, including many of the Dem-controlled cities. That's what the GOP is trying to chop up, and gerrymandering is basically chopping up districts to make it harder for Dems to win.

We Democrats have gained a lot of new voters since last year. Also many GOP voters have left their party and become independent. But those facts don't guarantee us anything. We still need to work hard and never turn our backs on the Republican Party.

[Tarc]

45. It was called the "Boomer Remover" in the early days

Guess it is time to rebrand.

"GOP Buster"
"Q-Cleaner"
"Wingnut Wiper"

Endless possibilities...

[LeftInTX]

56. Yes and it didn't turn Texas blue in 2020

Nor did it turn Oklahoma blue or South Dakota blue......or Florida blue....

[Tarc]

63. All in good time...

3.5% gap in Florida, 5.5% in Texas.

[lagomorph777]

65. It did help in AZ and GA.

[BaronChocula]

47. Oh bless the "where's the data" crowd

They can go find their own. In the meantime, I wholly accept discussion topics that are anecdotal and not 100% scientific. The topic of this post is exactly what has been on most of our minds. Thanks for sharing.

[LeftInTX]

55. We'll see what happens to those voters in 2022

Until then, we have work to do....

Look what happened in South Texas....Parts of the Rio Grande Valley turned red. And just recently a Republican party chair was elected as the mayor of McAllen....(This was May 1st)

These areas used to be blue, blue, blue...

[LeftInTX]

58. The US might be losing 1,000 people per day, but it's all about the states...

Right now Florida and Texas are losing about 200 per day.
California is losing about 50 per day.

The death rate in Texas still hasn't matched last year's peak. And last year's peak didn't make a dent in Texas and Florida...

Plus, not only is it mean spirited, it is a lazy way to assume we will win...Counting on a plague???

[katusha]

59. while I appreciate the feedback...

I am unsure if this is directed at me or another poster:

"Plus, not only is it mean spirited, it is a lazy way to assume we will win...Counting on a plague???"

[LymphocyteLover]

66. Some more recent polling data on vaccination among Dems and Repubs

Since the unvaccinated definitely are dying more, and Trump supporters are the least vaccinated, I think we can say he and the GOP are losing more voters than Dems from COVID.

Link to tweet

?s=20

[Niagara]

67. Thank you for this!

[Tumbulu]

69. how many registered voters are in the state anyway?

and any idea what the turn out was in the last election?

All the charts list are percentages, but not total numbers.

So, to partially answer my own question there are already 50,000 more registered democrats than republicans in Florida. It is the 3.5 million no party voters that might be the swing?

And if all these deaths are occurring in the solid red districts, it won't really matter much.

Do Democrats simply not vote? Or is it the gerrymandering?