Thought experiment: Biden does not run in 2024 but VP Kamala Harris does...

[steve2470]

Note: Before you start typing, I really WANT President Biden to run again in 2024, if he wishes to. This is just a thought experiment.

As I said in the subject line, let's speculate that President Biden, for whatever reason, declines to run in 2024 again. Vice President Kamala Harris does.

The way it stands now (ugh), it seems the 2024 matchup would be between VP Harris and the twice-impeached criminal loser.

Harris wins, yes ? I sure hope so, if President Biden does not run.

[leftstreet]

1. Not sure GOPers would let Trump run

I think the PNAC neocon wing of the party is flexing its muscles and grabbing the party back from him.

[Polybius]

9. They're too small now

If it's not Trump, it's DeSantis who the neo-cons hate too.

[Marius25]

10. Where are you seeing that?

I think they will definitely let him run.

[leftstreet]

17. The media hauling out all the PNACers and neocons

and letting them bloviate about Biden and Afghanistan (Trump humpers don't care about Afghanistan one bit)

People like Liz Cheney going anti-Trump and the media fawning over her

I just think they're testing the waters for how best to dump Trump.

[Johonny]

54. If alive, he will run, even if in jail, he will run

They can't stop him and most are afraid of the undying love the Trumpers have for him.

[Jose Garcia]

68. If they couldn't stop him in 2016, what makes you think that could stop him now?

[Irish_Dem]

2. I think this has been one of the plans from the beginning.

But it is fluid situation and we shall see what Biden decides to do.

[honest.abe]

4. Yes I think so too.

Biden can legitimately bow out by referring to his age and give his full endorsement to his youthful rising star VP Harris.

[Irish_Dem]

16. Exactly. This was his implied response to the age issue when he ran for president.

Harris is now traveling the world to get her foreign policy bona fides.

[Demsrule86]

30. And that won't help elect her...Americans don't vote on foreign policy. She needs to live in the

Rustbelt where the next election will be won. And I must say...I don't know if she can win. The best scenario for a win is Biden runs again and has the edge that all incumbent presidents have.

[Irish_Dem]

34. Yes but she cannot run without foreign policy chops.

No matter what Americans care about, the GOP will attack her on that front.

Right, that is why I said it is a fluid situation. I am sure they will look at poll numbers to decide.

[Demsrule86]

62. They are already attacking her unmercifully. I expect given that she left the 2020 primary early

that we will see others in a primary. I hope Joe Biden runs...that would be the best scenario.

[Irish_Dem]

83. Yes, the situation in this country is dire, and Joe is the best person right now to handle it.

I hope he runs again too.

[Demsrule86]

32. And then we most likely lose. 24 won't be much different than 20. I don't understand why anyone

would consider this to be a good idea.

[honest.abe]

35. Likely lose?? VP Harris would be an incredible candidate.

Smart, witty, charming, experienced, plus she will generate alot of excitement just based on who she is.. a minority woman.

I think she wins in a landslide unless they cheat.

[Aristus]

40. Well, they ARE going to cheat.

That's the long and the short of it right there. Can we boost turnout enough to overcome the voting restrictions the repukes have put in place?

[Demsrule86]

64. No, she did not do well in the 2020 primary. And I question her ability to win in

rustbelt states...such as Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan. She is from California. That presents a problem geographically for us. And then there is the question...can a woman-any woman -win the presidency. I don't know the answer. The best scenario is for Biden to run as an incumbent. He enjoys incumbent status. VP Harris wouldn't. I really like her but we need more than Democrats to vote for her in order to win. My hope is in 28 that we will finally see the favorable demographics for us come to pass and elect VP Harris as our first woman president...tired of waiting!

[honest.abe]

82. She didn't do well mainly because she was in the same lane as Biden.

Also many progressives attacked for her role as CA AG. Unfairly I might add.

[Celerity]

43. Calling a boomer who would have been the oldest Dem first sworn

in (or elected since the inauguration date was moved up) since Truman (and there were only 2 others older in history, Buchanan and Andrew Jackson) if she had won in 2020 (not even going out to 2024, 2028) a 'youthful' star is a bit OTT for me.

Youthful compared to Biden, for sure, but not compared many other measurements. If she ran and won in 2028, she would be in her 70's in part of her 2nd term. Obama is only 3 years younger than Harris, and, in that 2028 scenario, he was first elected 20 years before her.

[honest.abe]

45. Yeah, I should have put "youthful" in quotes.

But clearly in comparison to Biden she is a baby! And she also has a youthful personality.

[Celerity]

59. totally agree on the youthful personality part, and she would make a great POTUS as well

[madinmaryland]

67. Wait what? VP Harris won't be in her 70's until the 2036 election.

She is 57 now.

[Celerity]

71. re read, if she won 1st term in 2028, and then was re elected in 2032, she turns 70 in 2034 nt

[secondwind]

3. I don't know much about Harris, frankly.. what are her approvals? As a woman, I can tell you now

that this could be a negative, sad but true!

I don't think Biden will run again, he said from he start that it was one and done... but so much can happen in the next three years.

[Marius25]

13. Her approvals aren't very good right now.

[Demsrule86]

27. Biden never said he was one and done...I don't know where people get this. It would be madness

to make yourself a lame duck before you were even elected.

[LakeArenal]

39. Biden never said one and done.

This has been hashed over numerous times.
We who supported Biden from before day one, did not vote for a lame duck president.

Biden is what we need now and in 2024.

[Klaralven]

5. If Biden doesn't run, there will be a primary to decide the nomination

[RobinA]

6. No Way Harris Wins

I have nothing against Kamala Harris, I would vote for her in the general if she were the candidate, but I don't see her winning. Against someone with a built in constituency who has already (sorta) won a Presidential election? Not going to happen. I hope I'm wrong.

I can only hope that Biden runs again, because I'm not sure who else we have of the white male variety, and I think whoever wins in 2024 will be white and male. Trump v Harris? Nightmare. Sorry, I am a female but we NEED to be realistic.

[SheilaAnn]

14. I agree with you and don't see her winning. I really like Adam Schiff. n/t

[Demsrule86]

23. I would have voted for Adam Schiff, but he has not supported Biden sufficiently in this

Afghanistan thing. I value loyalty. Thus, I will not vote for him in a primary...general of course but not a primary.

[Nay]

60. I agree completely. If she's our candidate, we lose. This country does not like women much.

And yes, I do expect that the former dipshit will run again, if his obese ass is still alive. MAGATs and maskholes will come out of the woodwork to vote for him. Upside? All his Nazi rallies will infect millions more of those raving idiots.

[Prof. Toru Tanaka]

61. "This country does not like women much."

Bingo- you hit the nail on the head. Harris has a lot of good qualifications but the RW hate machine will be in full misogynist attack mode.

Not to mention attempts to cheat. The best hope to keep the WH will likely be Biden.

Hopefully, Trump will have dropped dead by then.

[roamer65]

7. I am betting Joe runs, then hands it over to Kamala in early 2026.

[RobinA]

20. I Hope Not

This would be very damaging in so many ways. You can't have people vote for one person and then change to another person for any reason other than significant disability.

[roamer65]

55. It happens in parliamentary systems all the time.

I would have zero problem with it.

[Demsrule86]

25. If Joe remains healthy, I hope he serves out both terms.

[roamer65]

56. I do, too.

But I also recognize our VP is a highly capable person.

[Polybius]

8. If he decides not to run, there will most certainly be a primary

I really don't want that in 2024.

[Fiendish Thingy]

11. I think a 2024 Harris/Trump matchup is far from certain, even if Biden doesn't run

First, Trump could be dead or in jail, and DeSantis wants to be the nominee so badly I believe he would kill for it (oh look, he already has).

Secondly, whether one believes Harris should be the de facto nominee if Biden doesn’t run, she would definitely have competition in the primaries- who that competition would be would determine if she is the eventual nominee.

Thirdly, a lot can happen between now and 2024, most importantly, COVID, infrastructure and voting rights. All three will likely have a deciding impact on the 2024 race.

Afghanistan will likely be a faded memory with little to no impact.

[Elessar Zappa]

79. Personally I

don’t even think Afghanistan will be an issue in 2022 either.

[honest.abe]

12. Another thought experiment..

If the election was now I think we lose due to this mess in Afghanistan. Thank goodness we have 3+ years to go.

[sarisataka]

15. I remember the thought experiment of 2016

It said Clinton v Trump would be a cakewalk and there was even speculation of a fifty state sweep.

[steve2470]

18. so true, I never bought into that nonsense but it was out there

I was trying hard to be optimistic in my thought experiment, but there is a real possibility that Trump could win again. No matter who we run. If we cannot get our turnout up to 2020 levels again, Trump (or the loathsome DeSantis) wins.

[LakeArenal]

41. What a downer. When we had people like Stacey Abrams winning GA for us.

POC are still saving us every day.

[steve2470]

42. Stacey Abrams and other PoC have been wonderful

If Biden does not run in 2024 and Harris does, we will need every bit of their help and everyone else too. We cannot take 2024 for granted, no matter which Republican runs. The criminal could win again, as much as that horrifies me. A huge section of this country is absolutely politically brain-dead and ignorant, as well as racist.

[LakeArenal]

46. Your premise is wrong from the start.

Biden is not turning over HIS presidency to anyone.

[steve2470]

47. I never said that....

This is a THOUGHT EXPERIMENT. I want President Biden to run in 2024 and win, and be our President until January 2029.

Bye.

[LakeArenal]

51. It just doesn't strike me as a "thought experiment"

[Bettie]

21. To be fair

we never realized that so many of the people here were suicidal, stupid, and possibly evil.

If that orange man plus Covid has shown me anything, it is that there are a lot of really horrible people out there.

[sarisataka]

26. Yes there were some surprises

But there were also many warning signs that most chose to ignore because they ran counter to the fantasy. 2020 was closer than it should have been for some of the same reasons.

[Bettie]

48. Yeah, but 2020 was closer also

because a lot of non-voters came out to vote for their orange idol. Republicans were out in force, registering new voters in person during a pandemic. We're less eager to get people killed.

Then, the new voters came out in force, because they love that hideous orange hellbeast.

[dclarston13]

19. This would not surprise me

I am not sure its a winning strategy though. Kamala being a woman of color will be particularly despised by many conservatives as well as many of the religious zealots.
The Afgan thing is going to be thrown back in Bidens face constantly. It is probably why no one has pulled out of there up till this point as they knew how dangerous it would be to their political future. I think Biden is in the zero Fs given camp at this point and is doing the right thing because it is the right thing. Unfortunately that is not the culture of our country at the moment.
One thing for sure who ever it is we have to get out and vote and support her/him.

[RobinA]

29. I Think

once Afghanistan is a mostly done deal everyone will forget about it. But you're right about our culture. Everybody SAYS they want politicians who do what needs to be done, but then when it gets ugly doing what needs to be done there's a big outcry. But many of us also have a very short attention span, and a lot of the outcry about Afghanistan is from people who just want Biden to look bad. And don't get me wrong, the Afghanistan pullout isn't something for us to be proud of, that's for sure. Plus, Trump started it.

[TreasonousBastard]

52. I can't help wondering if Biden & Co. rushed the Afghanistan retreat assuming...

get it over with early so it will be forgotten in four years.

Four years! That's really an eternity in politics. Who knows what will happen?

[Bettie]

50. Even liberal men will often find

that they are "willing" to have a woman as president, but "not that woman"...

I honestly do not believe that we will ever have a woman as president, I hope to be wrong, but I doubt it.

I expect that the next president (after Biden whenever that is) will be another old white man.

[Demsrule86]

22. No, I really like Sen. Harris but Biden has a better chance of winning as incumbent.

I don't know if Sen. Harris can carry the rustbelt. She is from California. And we need that area to win. I would like to see her serve her two terms and then maybe, she might have a chance...assuming the GOP isn't successful in destroying her as Clinton was destroyed...they sure are tryng.

[Tomconroy]

24. If Biden doesn't run every democrat in creation

Will vie for the nomination. There won't be a debate stage big enough.

[treestar]

31. True but would Harris have an advantage

having been VPOTUS?

[Tomconroy]

36. Don't know. She'd certainly have name recognition.

I'm just not sure how big a constituency she really has.

[treestar]

28. I would hope so

Harris being a woman is the issue - while a POC male can do it, a woman has the built in misogyny that includes so many women themselves. However, she lacks Hillary's baggage, and people who realize that not getting out and voting for Hillary resulted in the term of Tangerine Idi Amin might help - don't let it happen again. And if the Rs do not run TFG because he either can't or has been forgotten, then she has an even better change. If she goes against their vanilla type candidate like Mittens, after 4 years of being VP to a popular POTUS, she could do it.

[jalan48]

33. Harris did poorly in the primary. Not sure being VP will be enough to change that.

[DFW]

49. And therein, as the Bard would say, lies the rub

If Harris wants to win the presidential primary without destroying her chances in the November election, four years of the vice-presidency alone are not sufficient to have a free ride to the presidency.

She did miserably in the primaries last time. She should consider this term as a crash course in “how to make America love you,” pretty much as Biden did in his 8 years as Obama’s VP. No matter how many photo ops with the PM of Singapore she gets, the photo ops with the mayors of Eau Claire, Grand Rapids and Erie, PA, and Youngstown are what will win the next presidential election, as the last two elections have shown.

[steve2470]

53. you are correct, as usual

I hope you and MrsDFW and family are all doing very well

[DFW]

57. Thanks, Steve!

I just got back to Germany this morning. I have the weekend off, but then have to get back into my country-hopping mode starting Monday at 5:00 AM, as the real world waits for no one. There is no rest for the weary. I was picked up by Mrs. DFW at the Düsseldorf airport and so was treated to the best welcome home I could hope for.

[Bettie]

63. Biden did poorly in multiple primaries before he ran this time

but as an older white man he has many built in advantages.

[Demsrule86]

65. This time is unlike any other IMHO. And I agree he has an advantage...the other candidate who might

win is Beto...and he might give us Texas.

[Bettie]

81. If Biden runs, he'll be our candidate

but if he doesn't....it won't be Harris or any woman.

Ever.

I hear even very liberal men say "I am open to voting for a woman, but not THAT woman" then, they find something that is, in their minds, disqualifying for each and every woman.

Then, there are the women who just hate other women.

I don't believe that I will see a woman in the presidency in my lifetime. Too much hatred of women.

[jalan48]

80. We'll know more when the next primary begins. I'm sure there will be multiple contenders unless

Biden is running again.

[samsingh]

37. at this point who knows

the forces against democracy are lining up and i hope our way of life is not destroyed.

[Tomconroy]

38. Trump came far closer to winning in 2020 than people like to admit.. What is it? A

Switch of 70000 votes and the orange man is back. The 7 million votes came from New York and California, not where it mattered in the electoral college.
It would be a mistake to underestimate TFG.

[MoonRiver]

44. Either one is fine with me!

They're both great candidates! GO DEMS!!

[former9thward]

58. I have never thought either Biden or Trump will run in 2024.

Biden would be 82. I don't believe he will think he should run at that age. Trump has done his thing and he wants a national stage but not the presidency again.

[Demsrule86]

66. I believe he will run for the good of the country. He comes from a long lived family.

If he were to leave office during a second term, it would also give the VP a chance to be president before having to run. I think that is the best scenario. Although I hope he makes it two terms.

[tavernier]

69. Total nonsense.

If Joe is in good health, of course he will run.

[greenjar_01]

70. I'm sorry, do people really think Biden's going to run again?

[steve2470]

72. see post 69 and others

Yes I would love for him to run again. However, he might be sick of being President by then and he will be 82 on November 20, 2024. I am NOT saying he will not be qualified at age 82, but hey... he might be sick of it all.

Please run in 2024, President Biden.

[greenjar_01]

73. That's wild

I'd put the chances of Joe running again at less than 5%.

[pinkstarburst]

86. I can't imagine him running

I'm sorry. I think Biden is amazing and exactly the president we needed in 2020. But if he ran for a second term, he would be 82-86 years old during that second term. At that age, I would have serious concerns about a medical event occurring while he was in office and I suspect others might, too.

I think Biden is doing an extraordinary job after being handed a long list of problems to solve. But I suspect we will likely need a new candidate in 2024 simply because of his age and what the perception about his age may mean for voters.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

74. I truly doubt that the ptb back her for 2024. That said if it's not Biden

I have no idea who it would be

[misanthrope]

75. Sad to say, but I find it highly unlikely this nation would elect a woman of color as POTUS

There's just too much bigotry and misogyny to overcome.

[dalton99a]

76. A highly qualified white woman tried.

(Yes, Hillary won the popular vote)

[LiberalFighter]

77. Personally, I don't think this should be mentioned at this time.

[LiberalFighter]

78. If this must be discussed...

Indicate that if Biden does not run and Kamala Harris does she will kick butt.

[hamsterjill]

84. I don't think Harris will win if she runs.

It’s not about her. It’s about gerrymandering and voter suppression. The idiots have taken over democracy.

[FBaggins]

85. I don't assume that she would get the nomination

It depends on how we get to the point of Biden not running for re-election and on how she is perceived to perform over the next two years.

Given her performance in the primaries, I wouldn’t assume that she’ll be the candidate.