WHY would the GOP back Trump in 2024?

[NanceGreggs]

Please explain WHY the Republican party would support a twice-impeached loser in 2024, when he couldn't get re-elected in 2020?

What has been revealed about his corruption since Trump left office is already staggering - and will only get worse between now and the next presidential election.

If he couldn't get enough votes to win in 2020, where are the votes that will suddenly appear four years from now to put him over the top?

The MAGAt base wasn't enough for a 'win' last November - and their numbers are diminishing rather than increasing. Tens of thousands of Republican voters have abandoned their own party since the events of January 6th.

So tell me again why the GOP will support Trump as their 2024 nominee - it's a fairytale story I so love to hear.

[lastlib]

1. Why? Simple.....

They're idiots and suckers, and he's a world-class professional con artist.

[Harker]

2. Abject, unreasoning fear of his sway over a large, angry mob? n/t

[NanceGreggs]

4. The 'angry mob" ...

... couldn't re-elect him in 2020. What are their chances of electing him in 2024?

[Harker]

7. They can still do a lot of collateral damage to incumbents.

Trumpsky probably doesn't care if he leaves the party in tatters, so long as he feels powerful in having others grovel for his radiant approval, or kneel before him to avoid his petty anger.

On several previous occasions candidates I've viewed as unelectable were elected. I'll breathe easier when he stops breathing.

[tulipsandroses]

3. I doubt he will run. But they are so corrupt that they will continue to support him

To continue to ferment the hate, which results in what we are seeing. Nuts taking over local school boards and winning other local seats that may be key in helping them cheat.
We must compete everywhere, for every elected seat. Joy Reid talked about these nuts winning seats in minority communities because of low voter turnout. Their children don’t attend these schools, they have zero interest in those areas. It’s a power grab.

If they get the right people in the right spaces, they can have their way screwing with things. They know they can’t win by the numbers.

[Fiendish Thingy]

5. Because if they don't, he will tell his cultists to stay home.

Trump’s narrow win in 2016 and narrow defeat in 2020 were due to people who don’t usually vote coming out of woodwork, riled up with hate, looking for vengeance or to own the libs or to stop the Deep State. Social Media campaigns convinced 80,000 crazies in the Rust Belt to vote for Trump (and yes a portion of the 80,000 were Dems who were convinced to vote third party or stay home).

If Trump is blocked from the nomination, and tells his cultists to stay home and not to vote in the “fake” election, it could be tantamount to ceding victory to the Dems in all swing states/districts.

If he runs, he will be the nominee, and unless incarcerated, will be installed as president in 2024.

[OLDMDDEM]

13. Interesting

7 million votes isn't a narrow win.

[Fiendish Thingy]

32. Trump won the EC by 80,000 votes in 2016, Biden by about 40,000 in 2020. Nt

[OLDMDDEM]

34. I agree with you

My point is that Biden won the popular vote by 7 million. That is all.

[MissMillie]

6. I've been asking myself this as well

The only answer I can come up with is this:

They're not behaving logically

[TreasonousBastard]

8. But, when have voters ever acted logically?

[Claustrum]

9. There are many factors in my opinion not to underestimate Trump's chance and here is why

1) While in 2020, Trump lost by 7m total votes, but as shown by Hillary (winning by 3m total votes but lost the presidency), total votes doesn't guarantee to win the presidency. For some swing states, it was dangerously close (GA with 40k votes, AZ, PA etc). So in my opinion, Biden's win in 2020 was a close one and republicans already added measures of voter suppression in those states and the fraudit could very well be used against democrats there.

2) Republicans are living in an alternative fact world. They are saying Biden's and democrats are the real corrupt ones, not Trump or republicans. I've seen so many posts on reddit where they accuse Biden (I will not repeat their BS) with absolutely no basis for their claims while they ignore the facts coming out for Trump.

3) You forgot that Trump wasn't supported by most republicans back in 2015 either. That's why you can find so many clips where a republican office holder criticizing Trump. Republicans have a winner takes all primary, which gave Trump's minority win (30-40% votes) to get all the wins in many states, giving Trump a lead that couldn't be caught up without getting the majority support. I don't quite see who has the ability to cripple Trump yet in a republican primary. But I don't follow republicans that closely.

4) Republicans fall back in line. I have no doubt in mind that if Trump were to get the republican nomination in 2024. Republicans will fall back in line. The republican office holders made a 180 turn and became Trump fans when Trump won in 2016.

Once again, I am not saying Trump will win the republican primary but I am simply saying it's not as unthinking as you made it seem. I've underestimated Trump back in 2015-2016 and never again because I learned that republicans (and some independent) live in a different world than us. I cannot understand anyone's support for Trump but they are still out there.

[Kaleva]

16. Some thoughts

While you say that Biden's win was a close one, there's some things to consider.

First is that Trumps win over Hillary was even much closer when you look at the votes in key states. His Electoral College win in 2016 was on a razor's edge.

Second is that Trump was the incumbent in 2020 running for re-election which should have given him a great advantage. He had no serious opposition in the primary which allowed him to build a formidable war chest. A war chest he squandered and the campaign was short of cash in the latter stages of the general.

Polls throughout Trump's presidency showed him to be unpopular. While his base is motivated, Trump didn't have the intellect or personality to expand that base. To this day, Trump plays to his base and only to his base. He can't win on his base alone.

[Claustrum]

17. I agree with what you said

But I don't see who can win the republican's primary over Trump for now. They have a winner-take-all primary unlike us. Trump's 2015-2016 primary win started with him winning many early states with 30-35% of the votes and take home all the delegates in those states and building a lead that can't be caught up. Republican primary allows for a minority win and there is nothing the party or party elders can do about it.

I am sure the party and party elders hated Trump in 2015 and we saw many many clips of them criticizing Trump back then. Trump did a hostile takeover in 2015 and I don't see anything making me believe he wouldn't do it again in 2023-2024 barring a criminal indictment for Trump before 2024. Matter of fact, Trump only became more prominent in republican circles. Trump made the vocal crazy minority cool and it is advantageous for him to have his cult following in a republican primary.

Many of us believed Hillary was the rightful winner in 2016 but almost none of us believed a rematch for Hillary in 2020 was a smart move. So most democratic voters ruled out a Hillary rerun. With all of the Trump won BS in republican circles now, it's hard for me not to see Trump as the clear front runner in 2024 republican primary. We just have to accept that republicans functions and think very differently from democrats and it's not all logical in their cult base.

[Kaleva]

24. I'm not saying he won't win the primary if he chooses to run.

But as we have seen, he is a seriously flawed candidate. His own worst enemy. Had he taken the pandemic more seriously instead of dismissing it, he should have had a very good chance of winning reelection. Had he not blown his sizeable campaign war chest early on, he would have had the funds to heavily advertise and campaign in key states during the final stretch.

Every Repub candidate for president must be taken seriously but I do not believe that Trump would have the upper hand in a 2024 campaign.

[Claustrum]

27. Ok. Understood.

But the OP is about "Why would GOP back Trump in 2024?" so I thought the post is about republican and the republican primary in 2024, not the general public.

[Ace Rothstein]

26. The margins were actually the reverse of this.

Trump won MI, PA and WI by about 80k votes in 2016.

Biden won AZ, GA and WI by about 40k votes in 2020.

Trump also did expand his base, he received significantly more votes in 2020 than he did in 2016. These were most likely people who generally don't vote. Trump will be a threat in 2024 if he decides to run.

[Claustrum]

28. Exactly, lets be real here, both 2016 and 2020 were extremely close.

I can't predict the outcome in 2024 but I wouldn't take Trump lightly. He has shown to be immune to a lot of the credible criticism against him. That's why republicans have become a cult in my eyes. The questions remain whether the people that hate Trump would be angry enough to vote against him in 2024 when he is not in office (if he get the republican nomination) with the help of MSM's normal bothsidism and their attack on democrats and Biden.

I am not so sure that Biden will repeat his win if 2024 is a rematch of 2020. I am honestly hoping Trump's age and his bad eating habit will do him in because there is no way Trump won't try to get another pass at the nomination because of the money he can steal from his campaign just like his original intent in 2016. It wasn't because he thought he could win the republican primary, let alone the presidency. He was in there to raise his profile and get some money out of people.

[Cosmocat]

33. He will easily win the primary if there is one at at all

nm

[bullwinkle428]

10. Despite the state of denial that so many choose to remain in, he's still the

undisputed leader of the GOP.

And I'm not even beginning to address the other "elephant in the room", no pun intended, where GOP-led state legislatures are making every effort to put forth plans that will allow them to completely disenfranchise the voters in their states if they're not happy with the results.

[Beastly Boy]

11. They are counting on Trump to lose

GOP's goal is no longer to win elections, it is to take over the process of elections regardless of popular vote. They are currently in the process of a systematic state-by-state undermining of the authority of electoral college, and all they need is an excuse to challenge the vote count. Trump showed them the ways it can be done, including the outright insuttection with the help of what Bannon recently called "storm troopers" ready to "deconstruct" the government at a moment's notice, and he has the ego to keep challenging the outcome until he gets his way. All GOP has to do is make it possible for Trump to get his way, and then they will remain in power for the foreseeable future.

After that, the GOP doesn't care if Trump kicks the bucket the day after they take over. They don't need Trump to govern, they need Trump to get his foot in the door and let them in.

[Johnny2X2X]

12. They'll back Trump

All the threads here saying Trump won't run are wishful thinking. He's running, he loves nothing more than running. And the GOP has no choice but to back him, if they don't, his voters stay home.

Can he win? Yes, unfortunately, he can win, he lost by about 50,000 votes in GA< WI, and AZ. Will he win? I don't think so, Joe is moving the country forward and will be able to run on his record of being way better than trump.

[Claustrum]

14. I am of the opinion that Trump running is good for democrats.

People already formed an opinion about Trump and he got many non-voters out to vote against him leading to democrats unthinkable wins in AZ and GA. Trump running would boost democrat's participation with a rematch of 2020 and some, otherwise non-voters, might vote for democrats again if Trump is on the ticket in 2024.

[Johnny2X2X]

15. That's what I thought in 2020

The media is going after Biden, I think he'll pull out of it, but he could be a damaged President in 2024.

[tanyev]

18. Because he's the God Emperor Dumpster Fire they've been waiting for.

[JustABozoOnThisBus]

19. They're still afraid of him. He has a basket of supporters.

Right wing nihilists (Bannon, etc) know he can be manipulated, so they like him.

But mostly it's fear. He's a vindictive sociopath.

[lark]

20. Working & upper class R's - represents their hate and that is all the fuckers have these days.

For the rich, he is their ultimate champion, they know he will make them virtual kings, able to hurt millions with no consequences. They know he will steal all the social security, Medicare & Medicaid money and give it directly to them. They know he will change the laws so they do what they want with no consequences. They know he will put America in subservience to Russia, but in return they will get tons of Russian $$, so they approve of these actions.

[SKKY]

21. For the same reason all those folks drank that Kool-Aid in Jonestown...

For the same reason all those people stayed in that compound in Waco while it was burning.
For the same reason all those people tried like hell to catch a ride on the Hale-Bopp comet.
They're in a cult. It's what cults do.

[chowder66]

22. Because they are Trump. They are what gave him life and they are not about to abandon

their manifestation.

[Mad_Machine76]

23. Because he would bully and intimidate them into doing it

He's not even in power or running right now and he's essentially captured the party and they are still in thrall to him nationwide and pushing his lies and continuing his pro-COVID policies where they can. In fact, if he officially announced, I'm not even sure that many right-wing Republican states would allow for primaries to occur.

[Whiskeytide]

25. It's because of the Тяцмрist's mentality. Most ...

… estimates put the number of “hard core” Тяцмрist voters at somewhere between 20 to 30 percent of the population. These are the deplorables, who support him because he is a racist asshole. His base.

But that number loosely equates to 40 to 60 percent of the Republican voters. That means that a non-Тяцмрy Republican would have a tough time winning any primary. And, even if they did, the mentality of the Тяцмрist is to NOT vote for anyone who is not Тяцмрy. A candidate losing even half of them means defeat in the GE in all but the reddest of states and districts.

But if they’re Тяцмрy, they likely win the primary, and keep the Тяцмрist voters for the GE. They can count on a pretty good chunk of the non-Тяцмрy republicans to pull their lever in the GE simply because that’s what all republicans are conditioned to do. That, along with gerrymandering, voter suppression and the installation of Тяцмрy election officials, gives them the best chance of winning.

It’s a strategic, calculated risk/reward approach, but it’s their best option given the Frankenstein they have created.

So - to answer your question, Republican politicians support him because they have to. Some WANT to, but they all HAVE to.

[Hotler]

29. Their hate for us (Dems & Libs). One supporter of the orange one was asked

by MSNBC why they support him? "Because he is our best chance to hurt the democrats." No politics are involved, just pure hate for us.

[DemocraticPatriot]

30. More than half of the GOP believe that Trump DID win in 2020,

but that it was stolen from him.... so the actual loss would not prevent those supporters from voting for him again, since they deny it.


Your argument makes sense logically--- but logic is not a strong characteristic of the GQP base... in fact they frown upon it.

[karynnj]

31. Because if he runs, unless something changes, he will win the primary

For the people following him, every point you made - all of which I completely agree with - they call fake news.

They still think HE is the one fighting the massive underlying corruption -- and do not believe any of the pretty obvious corruption charges. They also see he was not found quilty by the Senate when he was impeached.

They also believe the lie that he actually won and the election was stolen. This when he controlled the Presidency, Senate, and Supreme Court - and the Arizona and Georgia governorships and legislatures. Now, they believe that they have strengthened the integrity (also known as suppression) of the vote and that if they replayed 2020, Trump would win. (Not to mention, they claim it would be more obvious that Biden(!) is in dementia.

They likely see their movement as growing. Here, they fall prey to the US having self segregated to a very real extent. There are a few Trump supporters in very blue areas - NYC or Burlington VT and some liberals in the reddest part of Arizona. On line, it is worse, we are all on the liberal, progressive, Democratic side. They also have their places and they get positive feedback as they move further to the right. Many even believe that the January 6th rioters are patriots who put their bodies on the line to stop "evil" forces from "stealing the election".

As you said, SOME Republicans have left in disgust. If many Trump like candidates run for the Senate and House and lose, this could make some of the more rational GOP people to see that the same would happen if they run Trump. The big if is - are there enough rational people in the GOP. Part of the problem there is that their governors, and Congressional delegation are scared of the Trump base and - as we have seen - very few have the integrity, willingness to risk losing, and honesty to speak out against even the worst of Trump. Their silence is very likely taken - not as the cowardice it is - but as agreement with the Trump elements.

If this pessimistic look is accurate, things may not get much better than it is now because we may have even more Trumpy Congressmen and Senators elected in the VERY red areas and states - even as Democrats win more swing seats because they ran people too far to the right. That MIGHT give us slightly more Senate and House seats.

[andym]

35. GOP are sheep who crave a "strong leader" and he is their authoritarian shepherd. NT.

[Blue_Adept]

36. 74 million votes

More votes than any republican running for president before.

That's why.

[carpetbagger]

37. Trump has a good chance in 2024.

Even with the covid dumpster fire he got close. Sure, his part of the 2016-2020 electorate is getting older, but even with this he would just need 2 percent of Biden's voters to stay home. Add together the people who will hold Biden responsible for not fixing the mess he was left, black men, Latinos who identify as white, apartment dwellers who can't stay on the rolls, suburbanites who have Nixon-programmed lizard brains that haven't been tapped correctly, and bad economics, it's 2 percent easy.

We can certainly win in 2024, but I think the odds are 50-50 at best.

[moondust]

38. Lawless openly racist pig with big name recognition.

Mob marching in lockstep as authoritarians demand (see: Nazis). Politicians fearing loss of party and donor support if they "stray" (see: Liz Cheney, etc.).

[lame54]

39. No choice