New report details how Biden won 2 key states -- and what Dems can learn from it

[brooklynite]

Politico

Recreating President Joe Biden’s winning coalition is an all-important mission for Democrats working to protect their razor-thin House and Senate majorities in 2022. But they’re still digging through the data to figure out what that really looks like.

Catalist, a Democratic data firm, took a fine-tooth comb to the 2020 results out of Nevada and Wisconsin, two battleground states that backed Biden by narrow margins, in an analysis released on Wednesday. The top takeaways in its report include some surprises for Democrats’ conventional wisdom: Latinas drifted away from Democrats in Nevada at a higher rate than Latino men compared to the last presidential election; white voters who didn't graduate from college didn’t help Biden as much in Wisconsin as they did nationally; and first-time voters of color are not necessarily voting just for Democrats.

“It's not appreciated that people of all races, when they don't pay attention to politics, don't have strong ideological patterns,” said Jonathan Robinson, who authored Catalist’s report, in an interview with POLITICO. “Their preferences will be different than those with a strong socialization around politics.”

Understanding what went right — and wrong — for Democrats in Nevada and Wisconsin will be immediately important for the party in the midterms, as both states feature hotly contested House, Senate and gubernatorial races. POLITICO dove into Catalist’s top takeaways:

[Hortensis]

1. BIG TAKEAWAY FOR DUers: Most "don't have strong ideological patterns"

“It's not appreciated that people of all races, when they don't pay attention to politics, don't have strong ideological patterns. Their preferences will be different than those with a strong socialization around politics.”

Older people tend to have firmer notions than young. New voters haven't firmed up yet, and there are a whole bunch of them, especially among minority groups.

All who want to understand what's happening need to keep that in mind. We are not representative.

Link to the report itself: https://catalist.us/wh-national/

Thanks for posting brooklynite.

[Drunken Irishman]

2. In Nevada, Biden actually did better among 30-39 year olds than 25-29.

He won both but the latter by 20 points and the former by just seven points.

Older Millennials backed him significantly in the state. The older Gen Zers and younger Millennials less, though 18-24 proved one of his strongest demographics in the state.

So, not sure what happened with that middle group and why they weren't consistent with the younger Gen Zers and older Millennials.

Beyond that, I do wonder how much the lockdowns impacted voting patterns. How many younger people were pushed to vote Trump because they were concerned about another lockdown?

[David__77]

3. I imagine that a lot were.

I can see how lockdown is experienced as very onerous particularly by those who didn’t have apparent options for full wage replacement.