Can someone explain the "Medicare Insolvency" argument

[AZSkiffyGeek]

I've seen Manchin reference it in every soundbite, and I've seen lots of articles stating this. But no one seems to be discussing it. Is it bullshit? Accounting trickery? Being addressed?

Because if it is true that Medicare is running out of money in 4 years, Manchin kind of has a point about not wanting to add more to the cost of it if we can't pay for what we have now.

[FBaggins]

1. The problem is that there isn't a trade to be made there

Medicare funding (like Social Security) can't be part of a reconciliation bill. So the leadership can't decide to shore up Medicare funding as part of a deal to win his vote.

[DetroitLegalBeagle]

2. Basically the payouts from the trust fund

is projected to exceed the money available in it in 2026. I've read it would only be able to cover 85% of what's projected.

[AZSkiffyGeek]

3. If that's the case, then I do kind-of understand Manchin's point

Of course this also screams like something that won't be dealt with until the day before it goes insolvent, like the debt ceiling.

[Hoyt]

6. Exactly, and we better hope GOPers aren't in control when dooms day comes.

[WHITT]

4. When President Clinton Was In Office

Medicare was "projected" to run out of money in 2012.

Just sayin'.

[Hoyt]

7. And they increased Medicare tax as part of ACA to deal with it.

[WHITT]

8. But

in his first term, it was "projected" to run out of money much earlier, like 2006. The ACA wasn't even enacted until 2010, and did not take effect immediately.

[Hoyt]

9. Go read the Trustee's report if you don't believe it.

[WHITT]

11. But It's The Trustees

who have been making faulty 'projections' for decades.

Go read the ridiculous economic assumptions they utilize to arrive at their ridiculous 'projections'.

[Hoyt]

12. You mean assumptions like economic disruptions like say COVID?

[WHITT]

15. Exactly

Which was countered by the largest job creation of any first-year presidential term, on top of the largest quarterly increase in GDP, up 33.4% in 3rd QTR 2020.

SEE? Cherry-picking economic data is real easy.

[Hoyt]

17. Yeah, unemployment still higher than pre-covid rate producing less SS and Medicare taxes.

[WHITT]

18. You're Choice

if you want to ignore the documented faulty assumptions and faulty projections.

[Hoyt]

19. Your choice if you want to ignore the facts and wait for automatic cuts. Hope our elected officials

have better sense than that.

[WHITT]

20. The Only "FACTS" That Matter

are that the "projections" from the trustees have been DEAD WRONG for DECADE after DECADE after DECADE after DECADE.

[rickyhall]

5. It can be fixed, but like Social Security it need a little more money from the rich.

[Turbineguy]

10. Repubs would rather give that money to billionaires

For the rest of us, life should be hard, brutish and short.

[KentuckyWoman]

13. We can pay it just fine.

It is just that guy would rather death panel grandma instead of asking Billionaires to pay one penny toward the very system that benefits them the most.

[Xolodno]

14. Medicare, Social Security, etc.

Come out of a different fund. FICA which funds most of the government...that is military, infrastructure spending, etc. is a separate fund. Manchin is trying to equate the two as the same, when they are not. No way in hell they will they transfer funds from one to the other. Add to that, it won't even fix the problem.

Raising the Medicare, SS, etc. taxes and/or age to withdraw, etc. has always been the traditional fix. Every once in awhile they float the idea of a means test, being if you make X amount or have Y amount of assets, those benefits diminish or don't pay out. And it gets shot down every time.

In short, he's full of shit.

[634-5789]

16. Can't be tied to any bill, it's got to be a stand alone agreement.

Don't be fooled. No politician is going to piss all over the senior citizen voters.