General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsThere is a Fox News poll going around showing a significant lead for Youngkin among likely voters
The problem is their definition of likely voters is the following:
Likely voters are a subgroup of registered voters, identified mainly based on self-reported vote intention and interest in the election.
However, among just registered voters it is a dead heat
Among the larger pool of registered voters, its a one-point race: McAuliffe 47 percent vs. Youngkin 48 percent.
The early voting has a substantial vote favoring Democrats, and I would not hold much in their likely voter assessment, and focus in just getting the vote out.
helpisontheway
(5,008 posts)and it was deleted. I hope all of the early vote that Democrats banked helps McAuliffe.
JohnSJ
(92,502 posts)usually pretty accurate, an 11 point turn-around without any significant news is strange
We pollsters to determine if it is an outlier, but I sure dont buy their likely voter criteria, and as I said the early voting so far significantly is favoring the Democrats
helpisontheway
(5,008 posts)Scrivener7
(51,083 posts)Midnight Writer
(21,845 posts)RussBLib
(9,056 posts).... they can scream it was stolen.
womanofthehills
(8,807 posts)And I read 538 had McAulifee down one percent. Not good.
Kid Berwyn
(15,050 posts)Thank you, Rupert.
Lovie777
(12,392 posts)When TM wins RWers will be screaming it was stolen. republicans are laying the ground work for future elections, which I believe will backfire on them.
womanofthehills
(8,807 posts)Mr. McAuliffe : I dont think parents should be telling schools what they should teach.
So his opponent is running with this statement in his adds & McAuliffe is on the defensive with his latest add - saying I have been taken out of context
Some have attributed this to the rise in his opponents numbers. Worrisome!!
Lovie777
(12,392 posts)It may reach 1 million for mail in plus early voting. There are a little over 5 million registered voters in VA. The early voting and mail in helped Gov. Newsom in rebuffing the "recall". My cousin in VA feels confident that TM will win, and claimed Democrats will vote on Tuesday as well. Also said that the VA Democrats have boots on the ground as well as communications and ads on going.
As to polls, I truly don't trust them.
Kid Berwyn
(15,050 posts)And which party wants to abolish the Department of Education.
LakeArenal
(28,867 posts)Dawson Leery
(19,348 posts)Really? That would require a massive dropoff on the D side.
With that said, if Youngkin does take it, he will hand the state's electoral votes to Trump.
underpants
(183,007 posts)They also had a graphic that said 1% of Youngkin supporters arent interested in the race. Huh?
FBaggins
(26,783 posts)The only additional datapoint that has much influence is pst history of voting (but that too is self identified).
The poll is pretty clearly an outlier
but the VA race does appear to be trending against us.