General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsRoanoke College Poll: McAuliffe 47% Youngkin 46%
https://www.roanoke.edu/about/news/rc_poll_politics_oct_2021
This election will be decided by turnout on Tuesday.
JohnSJ
(92,492 posts)honest.abe
(8,688 posts)I trust nothing associated with Fox News.
JohnSJ
(92,492 posts)with other polls, dead heat, and another one which they viewed as likely voters from the same subset, based on ambiguous assumptions.
Of course the poll they pushed was what they viewed as likely voters
jimfields33
(16,070 posts)JohnSJ
(92,492 posts)question the criteria they used to assume someone was likely to vote verses someone not likely to vote
In this case they are assuming Democrats are not as enthusiastic to vote as republicans, and I dont but that
Polybius
(15,518 posts)We'll know Tuesday night.
JohnSJ
(92,492 posts)motivated to vote as republicans, and I dont buy it
Polybius
(15,518 posts)The writing was on the wall, sad to say.
JohnSJ
(92,492 posts)spreads that the other pollsters said.
Also the polls were wrong about New Jersey. They indicated a much bigger win for Murphey, and it was far closer than that
Brainfodder
(6,423 posts)Dawson Leery
(19,348 posts)Heavy EV the past week. Democrats are waking up. We need more of them on Monday and Tuesday.
gldstwmn
(4,575 posts)Northern Virginia.
spooky3
(34,517 posts)triron
(22,029 posts)spooky3
(34,517 posts)budkin
(6,725 posts)These polls are total bullshit.
PortTack
(32,819 posts)SKKY
(11,831 posts)...not for Virginia but what it could mean nationally. We need a win here.
JohnSJ
(92,492 posts)BlueStater
(7,596 posts)I think every poll Ive seen other than the Fox one has McAuliffe with a small lead.
Either way, its going to be a nail biter, unfortunately.
JohnSJ
(92,492 posts)where the difference was, and that was based on their assumption that republicans are more motivated to vote than Democrats
I think that is a wrong assessment since what happened in 2016. Things have changed since then
JustAnotherGen
(32,000 posts)2016 vs 2021. The country has changed dramatically since then.
Deminpenn
(15,292 posts)The turnout models, i.e., likely voters, have had issues the last few cycles. There are various criteria used like "enthusiasm" or how often a respondent votes. If you vote in every election, primary and general, you are a "iikely voter", if not you could be screened out.
If I were a pollster, would lean toward results of registered voters with all the marginal frequency data included.
Response to BlueStater (Reply #15)
helpisontheway This message was self-deleted by its author.
Qutzupalotl
(14,340 posts)One expects that to diminish turnout somewhat, at least in areas with long lines outdoors.
My hope is that enough of us have voted early that it wont make much difference. (Republicans tend to vote more on election day than Democrats, who do most of their voting early.)
Its going to be close. Give rides to voters if youre able to.