Covid cases dropping in US?

[Tomconroy]

I'm not a statistitian by any means, by I did take a look at the chart for US cases in the NYT and noticed what looked like a drop in US cases. I crossed checked with worldometer on the numerical reports of daily cases. For a while there we were averaging near 100000 cases a day but for I think the last 5 days the numbers were substantially less. I looked at the state listings in the NYT and a lot of the recently hard hit states in the west and the Dakota's were showing significant declines.
Maybe I'm wrong, but I thought I'd mention it and risk being the bearer of good news.

[live love laugh]

1. Probably why the Newz is blasting about Omicron

to keep everyone drowning in fear and negativity..

[USALiberal]

11. Anti masker I assume?

[PTWB]

16. With a name like that I wouldn't be surprised...

Sounds like something straight out of hobby lobby.

[Sympthsical]

17. Just for you

[Lucky Luciano]

2. Holidays and weekends can distort the data.

[SoCalDavidS]

3. Thanksgiving Holiday

This last week is an anomaly.

The week to week % change figures are going to rise dramatically come next week.

[Bleacher Creature]

4. Here's a helpful twitter thread.

Link to tweet

Link to tweet

[nitpicker]

12. +1

People can't/won't get tested during holidays, and coroners just now are getting back to work.

[Ms. Toad]

5. Same thing happened last Thanksgiving.

And Christmas.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

Scroll down to the new cases graph. Look at the dip around Nov 26 last year (Thanksgiving) and the dip between December 25 and December 30.

Some places don't report on holidays. Testing sites are closed. People put off testing becaus they are celebrating (and spreading the joy of COVID around).

[progree]

6. And there is more than usual testing in the days preceding holidays

as a precautionary measure. Meaning that week-over-week comparisons (post-holiday compared to pre-holiday) are skewed by a higher than normal baseline.

[elias7]

7. Not in our neck of the woods

Our community hospital in NH is seeing burgeoning numbers of cases in droves not previously seen in the past 1 3/4 years. I even spoke to hospital admin to communicate this to the public, who seem absolutely clueless that Covid is raging. We saw a dozen Covid patients during the ER day shift yesterday, admitted 3 of them, most say that their whole families are sick at home. Almost all unapologetically unvaxxed.

[Delphinus]

10. Thank you

for that first-hand reporting.

I shake my head at the human race.

[LisaL]

8. Clueless as usual I see.

People don't test as much during holidays. So it doesn't mean the cases are actually dropping. Just the reported cases due to less testing. Reported cases are also lower on Sundays compared to the rest of the week. Not because they are actually lower but because less testing during the weekend.

[Tomconroy]

9. Some of those western states were dropping before Thanksgiving.

Last edited Tue Nov 30, 2021, 08:51 AM - Edit history (1)

And worldometer has had five straight days of dropping numbers on a daily count. But I'm glad to see you all are following my posts. Ha!
Montana, Wyo. Alaska, Wash. were showing drops before the holiday.
NE is still reporting increases.
And nobody of course mentions the south. Don't think those numbers have anything to do with Thanksgiving.

And on another subject:

https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2021/11/18/1055071699/coronavirus-faq-what-is-long-covid-and-what-is-my-risk-of-getting-it

[progree]

15. NYTimes shows new cases increasing through the 24th for the U.S. as a whole

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/covid-cases.html
(no paywall no quota)
Click on "last 90 days" button just above the graph on the left side (that button is the NYTimes' gift to humanity and sanity. Along with that wonderful map)

And besides the 7 day average increasing, Monday 22nd over Monday 15th, Tuesday over Tuesday, and Wednesday over Wednesday were all increases.

More states were going up than going down too.

I look at it more than once a day every day.

One could argue for a pre-Thanksgiving loss of momentum though (a deceleration in the increases).

[Ms. Toad]

18. If you watch it on a daiy basis -

It's folllowing its normal weeky pattern, without the Thurs-Friday climb because Thursday/Friday were different because of the holidays. Again, look at last year - both Thanksgiving and Christmas - AND - recognize that it will take a couple of weeks for the data for the disrupted days to catch up.

[Tomconroy]

20. The western states I voted were the first to get hit in the new wave and

Are now the first to feel a drop. Check MT and Alaska where it was bad. The south is now safe. I may be premature but it does go away as mysteriously as it comes. And Dr. Gottlieb in August predicted the drop in FL and the rise in the northern midwest and OMG New England he predicted in Sept.

[Ms. Toad]

21. Have you bothered to look at the national 7-day average around Thanksgiving and Christmas last year?

[Tomconroy]

22. Before vaccines though.

[Ms. Toad]

25. And having vaccines somehow magically changed

the factors which alter the shape of the infection curve (people testing before holidays, testing sites not being open curing holidays, reporting offices closed during holidays).

Vaccines alter the height of the curve, not the holiday-influenced dip in the shape of the curve.

[Tomconroy]

26. I can't do stats but you know it's going to start dropping

Just as it did in the south.

[progree]

27. It's seasonal. In the summer in the South they spend more time indoors with air

conditioning while in the North more times outdoors. That reverses as fall turns into winter. We saw that last year too.

I watch that NYTimes map every day since almost the beginning of the pandemic, same thing happened last summer-fall-winter -- the South was the epicenter and then got a lot better while several North and Northeast states became the epicenter.

Same thing will happen again next summer-fall-winter with almost metaphysical certainty, though hopefully with lower peaks.

[Tomconroy]

28. I thought seasonal too but David Leonhardt in the NYT says

No. No one really knows why it does what it does. He's a maven.

[progree]

30. I'll believe my lying eyes before I believe a "maven".

[Tomconroy]

31. Yeah.

I always go with annonymous people on the internet myself.

[progree]

32. You can call the NYT maps and the rankings "anonymous people" if you wish (smh)

Why don't you look for yourself?

[progree]

34. Who told you David Leonhardt was a "maven"?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_Leonhardt

[progree]

29. A great resource is archive.org -- plug in the nytimes web site

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/covid-cases.html

into the Wayback machine and look at some of the innumerable snapshots -- to see the seasonal pattern, like pick snapshots at one month intervals. Unfortunately it doesn't display the map, and none of the buttons work (so you can't expand the list with "Show All" for example), but you can see the top 10 states listed in order of highest per capita daily new cases.

[Ms. Toad]

35. Still ignoring the point.

We're nowhere near dropping. Thanksgiving blip aside, cases are increasing in more states than they are decreasing, and in at least 2 dozen states they are increasing significanty.

So while you're right that ultimately the cases will drop, what you are seeing right now is just the disrupted testng/reporting associated with a 2-4 day holiday.

[former9thward]

23. How many people were vaccinated last Thanksgiving and Christmas?

Talk about comparing apples and oranges...

[Ms. Toad]

24. That would be relevant to the height of the infection curve,

not the shape of the curve, which dips, for a number of reasons, around holidays.

[BumRushDaShow]

14. PA reported a 5-day total yesterday of +26,626

with the average daily over that period of 5,325.

Link to tweet

TEXT

PA Department of Health
@PAHealthDept
#COVID19 Update (as of 11/29/21 at 12:00 am):
• over the five-day Thanksgiving holiday a daily average of 5,325 new cases were reported
• 1,731,154 total cases statewide
• 33,308 deaths statewide
• 15,306,281 doses of vaccine administered

More info:
Coronavirus in Pennsylvania
Get the latest, up-to-date information on coronavirus from the Pennsylvania Department of Health
health.pa.gov
12:19 PM · Nov 29, 2021

We bottomed out before July 4th, literally in the couple hundreds of reported positives per day (avg ~175 - 200/day statewide) and then apparently Delta took off at that point and we haven't been below 3000/4000 cases/day since late August (when colleges got started) and haven't been below 5000/day since late October.

Remember that this pandemic has "undulated" through this huge geographic area that is the U.S. and the ups and downs are by no means homogeneous. In reality, you have "hot spots" that bubble up.

Link to tweet

TEXT

CDC
@CDCgov
The #COVID19 level of community transmission in the U.S. remains high & cases are increasing.

The 7-day average of daily new cases was 94,266, a 9.7% increase from the previous week.

Get vaccinated right away!
More: https://bit.ly/2Hw1EZZ
Image
5:00 PM · Nov 24, 2021

(CDC will probably have an update for the above by tomorrow or thereabouts)

The other thing to keep in mind is that day-to-day variations are not a good way to determine the trends. That's why they do the "7-day" or "14-day" averages and charts/graphs because you will inevitably get "noise" coming off a weekend (or holiday) with data that comes from both a combination of weekend reported values (from those labs/locations that even report on weekends) and/or initial smaller reports (that miss some results from weekend testing) on that Monday, followed by a dump of a big batch of results later in the week.

[liberal_mama]

19. In my area, we had a lot less cases due to less testing, but our positivity has been between 10 and

13% unfortunately. Hopefully, the cases will go down, but with all the holiday gatherings, I'm not sure that will happen.

[lpbk2713]

33. There's no way of knowing for sure in Florida.

DeSantis hasn't allowed reliable info ever since he arrested Rebekah Jones.

[BigmanPigman]

36. Did you check out today's numbers?

106,000 new cases and 1,400 new deaths. Same as last year.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us

[progree]

37. I'm inclined to agree with you, after reviewing NYTimes thru Tuesday

Last edited Wed Dec 1, 2021, 03:49 AM - Edit history (3)

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/covid-cases.html
no paywall no quota

Just above the daily new cases graph, on the left side, SO VERY IMPORTANT to click the "LAST 90 DAYS" button so as to see what I'm describing without using mousekeys and a super-sized magnifying glass and 500% browser zoom.

Monday Nov 29 came in with a high total of new cases, but that was expected, many states don't report on Saturday and Sunday anymore, so Monday often has the weekend cases. And/or Tuesday - In Minnesota, for example, which reports at 11 AM when it reports (M-F), Monday's report is just Friday's cases and Tuesday's report is Saturday-Sunday-Monday.

And with Thanksgiving, obviously from the daily bars, few cases were reported that day or the Friday after.

So we should be seeing big big numbers on Monday and Tuesday. They are big-- enough to turn the 7 day curve up slightly, but they are not big big. They are far short of getting us to the 95,172   7-day average peak of Nov 24.

Unless there are a LOT more backlogged cases from the 4 day "weekend" appearing in the next days, I don't think we're going to reach the 7 day average peak of 95,172 soon, e.g. not by Friday with Friday's data included (late night Friday). By then the vast majority of backlogged cases from the 4 day weekend will have been included. And not by Monday or Tuesday either.

Beyond Tuesday Dec. 7, I'm just not going to try to predict. There are a lot of wiggles and squiggles in the line in the past, and there will be in the future. And I'm cognizant that last year, the U.S. as a whole peaked on January 11, so there's a whole lot more of winter to come.

Minnesota

I'm also following Minnesota, my state, intensely closely, which has been #2 per capita in daily new cases much of the past few weeks (after Michigan). I, perhaps provincially, see it as a bell-weather northern state (along with Michigan and the Northeast). I was seeing some plateauing before Thanksgiving (evident now in the graph).

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/minnesota-covid-cases.html

Tuesday's data has been included in Minnesota in the graphs and numbers, and while there is a teeny teeny turnup in the 7 day average, it and the next few days are just not going to be anywhere near enough to bring that 7 day average up to the 4,266   7 day peak of Nov 24.

(Edit, oops, actually the 7-day average was a bit higher on Nov 16: 4,484. Currently, the 7 day average thru Tuesday Nov 30 is 3,572) (BTW, FWIW, last year Minnesota's 7 day average peaked on Nov 20)

Back to the U.S. overall

Anyway, for the record.

Edited to add After all this, a specific prediction: the 7 day average of daily new cases thru December 7 for the U.S. will be a little below the 95,172   7-day average peak of Nov 24.

[Poiuyt]

38. Every time I think it's going down in my area, it goes back up again.

Damn! I'm getting really sick of this thing (not literally, luckily).

[Ms. Toad]

39. Thanksgiving 2020 curve v. Thanksgiving 2021 curve.

Thanksgiving 2020 (blue line is 7-day average ):



Thanksgiving 2021 (blue line is 7-day average):



That dip and rise looks nearly identical, as predicted.

[Tomconroy]

40. The south is in moderate spread. The west except for AR and NM

are getting there. Even MI and MN are showing noticable drop in the two week averages.. With a few exceptions. it's the northeast, the last to experience the latest delta increase, where cases are still on the rise. Compare national figures in September and today.
Like in the stock market: The trend is your friend.

[progree]

41. I'm sweating bullets - I agreed with you in post #37

I'm inclined to agree with you, after reviewing NYTimes thru Tuesday

After all this, a specific prediction: the 7 day average of daily new cases thru December 7 for the U.S. will be a little below the 95,172 7-day average peak of Nov 24.

Then I looked at NYTimes U.S. overall which now includes Dec 2:
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/covid-cases.html
(no paywall no quota)

As always, for anyone new reading this, it helps enormously to click the "LAST 90 DAYS" button at the top of the graph on the left side. Anyhow,

there is a definite upturn in the 7 day average. Both Wednesday and Thursday are considerably higher than 2 weeks ago, and Wednesday was higher than last Wednesday. (Last Thursday was of course Thanksgiving with very few cases reported).

While I expected a turnup of the 7 day average when Thanksgiving dropped out of the most recent 7 day periods, I didn't expect the strong upturn, anyway, the 94,643   7-day average is just 529 shy (0.56% shy) of the 95,172   7-day average of Nov. 24. I think I will be eating crow on my post #37 prediction.

Pushing the "ALL TIME" button - exceeding that 94,643 level will create the highest 7-day average since October 10, nearly 2 months ago.

Edited to add: As for the trend is your friend, I'm worried about the up-trend that began after October 25 when the 7 day average bottomed out at 69,936 cases/day. It looks like we are resuming that uptrend.

Minnesota

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/minnesota-covid-cases.html

I was pretty happy through Wednesday Dec 1, seeing little sign of either Thanskgiving backlog cases being added after Tuesday, or otherwise any more new cases being reported than on previous Wednesdays. There was a bit of an upturn in the 7 day average as I expected, but not much, so I felt confident we wouldn't reach the pre-Thanksgiving 4,266 cases 7 day average by Dec 7 (my original forecast end date) or for the forseeable future (last year we peaked on Nov 20 FWIW). I thought we were beginning a long downturn.

But the 5,307 new cases reported Thursday Dec 2 was quite a lot -- more than the 4,820 reported 14 days before and 5,118 cases reported 21 days before.

But it's just one day's data and that happens, especially in a small state (we're a bit below average in population). So we'll see. Friday's report will be interesting (comes out 11 AM). There's no reporting on weekends. So after Friday's report, we won't know anything more until Monday 11 AM.

[Tomconroy]

42. Don't worry. The numbers are going down nationally.

My main covid boy Dr. Gottlieb predicted all this in September. At the beginning of August I first saw him on TV predicting numbers in FL were peaking and would soon decline. I said: BS!
We'll of course it happened. In Sept. He said it would hit the upper midwest and take a final swipe at New England. Sometimes he's a few weeks early but I haven't seen anyone beat his track record. According to the NYT Minn. has seen something like a 10 percent drop over the last two weeks. MI is down nearly 20. Delta is pretty much done. NE will be the last place it drops.
You know, it paid to be a Covid pessimist back in 2020. But with the vaccines that's pretty much a loser's game now. At some point people will figure that out.

[progree]

43. They have been going up since October 25 except for the Thanksgiving dip in the U.S. overall

and is just 0.56% shy of becoming the highest 7 day average since October 10.

My post #41 were U.S. national figures (except for the Minnesota section at the bottom).

As for Dr. Gottlieb's predictions -- it's just the same movie we saw last year -- the south gets better as the summer turns to fall while the north gets worse. Same old same old. Happened in 2020. Happening in 2021. I predicted that too. I watched that map every day last year (since about May or so).

According to the NYT Minn. has seen something like a 20 percent drop over the last two weeks.

And its on the rise again which is what I tried to patiently point out in #41.

Back to the U.S. overall -- the NYT says its something like a 4% rise over the last 2 weeks.

And up 35% since October 25.

[Tomconroy]

44. They are going up in the northeast and a few other places.

The last places to get hit with this last delta wave.
At this point it's a disease of the unvaxxed and of the elderly and truly immuno compromised vaccinated.
People haven't quite figured it out yet but Covid is not a serious threat to the vaccinated under 60 or maybe even 65. For them Covid already is endemic.
Ruh roh. I'm 66! Doom, gloom, despair!
PS: Dr. Faucci has been predicting endemic for the country in the spring since last summer.

[progree]

45. Since Oct 25 its up in a lot more than the NE and a few places. You don't get a 35% national

increase in cases by just having increases in the northeast and a few other places. And even if was the northeast and a few other places, if its enough of a rise to bring the national total up 35%, then it just as serious as 35% increase spread out evenly.

[Tomconroy]

46. Bet you a martini delta is over by March.

[progree]

47. Why - because it's overtaken by Omicron? Could be could be. Another province in S.Afr

has found Omicron to be the majority in their samples.

[Tomconroy]

48. OMG. Cheer up.

Take the bet. By your lights you've already got a free drink.
Off for my power walk. I have actual stuff I need to worry about later this morning.

[progree]

49. Oh its a very easy bet, no problem, You say "over" by March. Does that mean 0 cases?

If so, I can guarantee you with metaphysical certainty that it won't be down to zero delta cases. Unless omicron is even worse than the pessimists say.

[progree]

50. NY Times shows cases up in 28 states, flat in 2 and down in 20 over 14 days.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/covid-cases.html

Actually the "14 days" is the daily average for the 7 days ending Dec 2 compared to the daily average for the 7 days ending Nov 18.

Edited to add -- One can sort the table by "14 day change" by clicking on that column header. You probably know that, but for anyone else reading who doesn't. And no, I didn't count the Northern Marianna Islands as a state.

[Tomconroy]

51. Martini bet: delta is endemic by March.

The big O? Let's actually find out a few things before we lose our heads.

[progree]

52. What does "endemic" mean. That to me means we have a significant number of cases forever,

just like the flu and the common cold. That's a lot different than "gone".

And frankly I don't care about delta. I'm interested in Covid-19 cases regardless of variant, and I expect at a minimum say 10,000 cases daily average on March 1 (which would be way down from the latest 7-day average 94,643).

As for the "Big O" here is South Africa's Health Department daily cases (Covid cases of all kinds) beginning Nov 24 (one day after the inclusion of the anti-gen tests that began on Nov 23)

Nov 24: 1,275, Nov 25: 2,465, Nov 26: 0, Nov 27: 6,048 (2 day average is 3,024), Nov 28: 2,858, Nov 29: 2,273, Nov 30: 4,373, Dec 1: 8,561, Dec 2: 11,535, Dec 3: 16,055

I got the above from
https://www.google.com/search?q=south+africa+new+covid+cases&oq=south+africa+new+covid+cases&aqs=chrome..69i57j0i512j0i22i30l5j69i61.8222j0j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

but checked about 4 or 5 of them with the South Africa Department of Health, e.g. the Nov 25 report and they all exactly matched.
https://sacoronavirus.co.za/2021/11/25/update-on-covid-19-thursday-25-november-2021/

EDITED TO ADD the December 3 new cases (16,055)

[Tomconroy]

56. Is there a difference between what antigens do to combat

A virus and t cells? And if so are T cells affected by a variant in the Covid stem?
Would you create a vaccine to prevent serious disease and death? Or would you create one to prevent a case of the sniffles?

[Ms. Toad]

54. I was specifically responding to your assertion that the lower cases just after Thanksgiving

meant COVID cases were dropping in the US. As you can see the shape of the curve following Thanksgiving this year is virtually identical to the shape of the curve last Thanksgiving. The 7-day average yesterday was 94,000 (near 100,000), and the actual number of cases reported yesterday was about 134,000.

What you were seeing right after Thanksgiving was the holiday dip, not the peak of the curve in the US.

And since you beleive the trend is your friend, US cases are up 3% over 7 days ago, and 4% over 14 days ago.

Cases are not, as you suggested in your OP, "dropping in US."

September the most recent peak. Since then, there was a dip in early November to around 71,000 cases per day. But since then there has been an increase of more than 30%. We are still in the increasing phase of this surge, not the decline you suggested in your OP.

[Tomconroy]

55. And since Sept.?

[Ms. Toad]

57. Reading is your friend. n/t

[Tomconroy]

58. Still think there are 25 million people wandering around with long 🥫

Covid? I think I stepped over ,8 on my power walk today.

[Ms. Toad]

60. 50% of COVID survivors.

At least 50 percent of people who survive covid-19 experience a variety of physical and psychological health issues for six months or more after their initial recovery, according to research on the long-term effects of the disease, published in the journal JAMA Network Open.

About 20 percent have decreased mobility, 25 percent have trouble thinking or concentrating (called “brain fog”), 30 percent develop an anxiety disorder, 25 percent have breathing problems, and 20 percent have hair loss or skin rashes. Cardiovascular issues — chest pain and palpitations — are common, as are stomach and gastrointestinal problems.

. . .

But additional research published in a subsequent issue of the journal found that cognitive dysfunction has occurred more often among those who had more severe cases of covid-19 and required hospitalization, and their brain fog issues have lingered for seven months or more. “One’s battle with covid doesn’t end with recovery from the acute infection,” one researcher said.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/long-covid-50-percent-lingering-symptoms/2021/11/12/e6655236-4313-11ec-9ea7-3eb2406a2e24_story.html

[Tomconroy]

61. Oi vey. I stepped over 1000s.

[iemanja]

62. It's not funny

You're effectively trivializing a million deaths.

[Ms. Toad]

63. Long COVID is no joke to those living with it. n/t

[progree]

64. U.S. and Minn. both break past their pre-Thanksgiving 7 day mvg avg peaks in daily new cases

Last edited Sat Dec 4, 2021, 03:12 AM - Edit history (1)

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/covid-cases.html
(no paywall no quota. The "Last 90 days" button above the graph is extremely helpful)

The U.S. as a whole -- 7 day moving average of daily new cases has surpassed the pre-Thanksgiving peak and is now the highest since Oct 3, reversing exactly 2 months of progress.

Top 10 in Daily new cases per capita, 7 day moving average

#1 New Hampshire
#2 Minnesota
#3 Michigan
#4 Wisconsin
#5 Rhode Isl
#6 NoDak
#7 Vermont
#8 Ohio
#9 Indiana
#10 Massachusetts

31 states have rising cases, 18 are falling, and 1 flat over 14 days,
for a 31-18-1 record

==============================================

In Minnesota with the addition of the Dec 3rd 5,682 new cases, the 7 day moving average of daily new cases has surpassed its pre-Thanksgiving peak, and is now the highest since Dec 11
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/minnesota-covid-cases.html

So pretty much an entire year of progress has been reversed in Minnesota

[Roisin Ni Fiachra]

53. Worldometer shows the number of new cases in US on 12/2/01 as 132,822.

That's the most I've seen in a long while.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

[LisaL]

59. The cases are clearly going up again.

And that's before omicron got going.

[Crunchy Frog]

65. They're going way up right now. The low numbers you saw were an artifact

of the long holiday weekend, when there is always very low reporting.