We Know a Lot More About Omicron Now: Here's how to think about all the emerging data.

[Celerity]

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2021/12/everything-about-omicron-cases-vaccines/620956/



The flood of Omicron news can be overwhelming. The endless data, anecdotes, and studies are hard enough to synthesize. But what makes the information even harder to parse is that so much evidence (i.e., what people are seeing) is intertwined with opinion (i.e., what people are hoping and fearing). To round up the week’s Omicron news, I wanted to write something that disentangled evidence and opinion, to help people make decisions right now—about travel, and school, and weddings, and funerals, and holidays—even though we’re dealing with lots of imperfect information. Consider this your highly imperfect guide to our highly imperfect understanding of Omicron.

1. THE SOUTH AFRICA DATA

Omicron is spreading really, really fast. New cases are rising faster than any previous wave in South Africa, even though the country already has widespread immunity from vaccines and a very large Delta wave. The estimated reproduction rate of Omicron is higher than anything the country has seen since the start of the pandemic.

So far, Omicron seems to be associated with less severe illness and fewer ICU admissions. Data from Gauteng province in South Africa show that the share of hospitalized patients with COVID who are in the ICU or on a ventilator is 50 to 70 percent lower than it was during the same stage of Delta. What’s more, the average hospital patient is being discharged faster than during the Delta wave. That’s according to data from the National Institute for Communicable Diseases shared with the Financial Times. Doctors from the Tshwane District, at the epicentre of the Omicron wave, reported the same thing: The COVID-positive patients in their hospital were less likely to need oxygen support, and their time in the hospital was shorter than it was for patients during the Delta wave.

Link to tweet

Anecdotally, a lot of South African doctors say they’re very concerned about reinfections but less panicked about severe illness. “We are seeing breakthrough infections of people who have been vaccinated, but the infections we’re seeing are very mild to moderate,” Richard Friedland, the CEO of a large private health-care network in South Africa, told Bloomberg. “It’s early, but I’m less panicked.” I wouldn’t put much stock in anecdotes. But these are from doctors on the front lines of the outbreak, and their assessments are backed up by the hard data.

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[Bernardo de La Paz]

1. Before data, anecdotes are very useful indications, but are not data or definitive

Looks like we are starting to get data now and so the anecdotes can begin fading away.

Thanks for posting.

[KY_EnviroGuy]

2. K&R. Thank you, Celerity. I'm wondering....

what happens when a person who has had Omicron becomes reinfected with Delta or another strain?

Also, could one have simultaneous infections with two strains?

Regardless, at 74 I'm not letting my guard down.

Curious in KY.......

[oldsoftie]

3. I thought SA had a very low rate of vaccinated.

Data from Denmark is also interesting because of their extremely intensive testing measures. Lots of infections but not causing lots of hospitalizations

[Scrivener7]

4. They say it was the combined immunity of vaccinated and previously infected. Maybe they

have had a very large number of cases of previous variants.

[gab13by13]

5. I just saw the headline on MSN and didn't click on it,

so I don't know for sure if it was click bait or not. The headline was that Pfizer reported its vaccine had a 25% efficacy rate v Omicron.

With that said there are very few deaths and few hospitalizations from Omicron. With that said I just ordered a batch of N-95 masks made in America.

[LymphocyteLover]

6. different studies suggest different rates of VE for Omicron

A British National Health study suggested vaxxed and boosted people had more like 70% protection

[gab13by13]

8. Yeah, I went back and looked,

it was a study done in Israel of 40 people and the vaccine was 4 times less effective against Omicron.

I also saw the study you are talking about but I believe doctors are worried that even with the booster that protection against Omicron wears off quickly. It is still really early to know what to believe. I just ordered a batch of N-95 masks, I can even get them made in the USA since a lot of people believe the pandemic is over, and that's a shame and is causing the virus to spread.

2 hospitals are going to shut down in southeast Pa. and another hospital in Centre county Pa. is turning people away and sending them to another hospital. I had a routine doctor's appointment at UPMC Pittsburgh pushed back 3 months, last year I did my doctor's appointment via Zoom.

I fear that this pandemic is only going to explode this winter, people are not wearing masks where I live in Pa.

[LymphocyteLover]

9. Yes, it is likely to be a bad winter. But what we do know is vaccination still helps

prevent severe disease and death and we all need to keep as safe as possible

[LymphocyteLover]

7. Good to see the early signs of it being less severe are holding up

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2021/12/monica-ghandi-the-cautious-case-for-omicron-optimism.html

[Farmer-Rick]

10. At least the booster provides protection

The Pfizer study found that ..."Three doses of the vaccine appeared to provide the same level of neutralizing antibodies against Omicron as two doses did against the original strain."

That's good news. The Biden administration was right to promote the boosters back when everyone was saying it wasn't necessary.

Would GOPers and TFG have promoted the booster? I seriously doubt it. Funny how the leaders of the anti-vaxxers all got their shots but then tell their viewers it's all a government conspiracy. The leader of the GOP propaganda site, Rupert Murdoch got his vaccines. Funny about their don't do as I do, do as I say attitudes.

The moment I saw TFG and his family con their way to get a vaccine, I knew it was safe. This country worships the filthy rich, so if they got the shot, you know it's safe for everyone.