LANCET: The End of the Pandemic Is Near -COVID-19 will continue but the end of the pandemic is near
By March, 2022 a large proportion of the world will have been infected with the omicron variant. With continued increases in COVID-19 vaccination, the use in many countries of a third vaccine dose, and high levels of infection-acquired immunity, for some time global levels of SARS-CoV-2 immunity should be at an all time high. For some weeks or months, the world should expect low levels of virus transmission.
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I use the term pandemic to refer to the extraordinary societal effortsover the past 2 years to respond to a new pathogen that have changed how individuals live their lives and how policy responses have developed in governments around the world. These efforts have saved countless lives globally. New SARS-CoV-2 variants will surely emerge and some may be more severe than omicron. Immunity, whether infection or vaccination derived, will wane, creating opportunities for continued SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Given seasonality, countries should expect increased potential transmission in winter months.
The impacts of future SARS-CoV-2 transmission on health, however, will be less because of broad previous exposure to the virus, regularly adapted vaccines to new antigens or variants, the advent of antivirals, and the knowledge that the vulnerable can protect themselves during future waves when needed by using high-quality masks and physical distancing. COVID-19 will become another recurrent disease that health systems and societies will have to manage. For example, the death toll from omicron seems to be similar in most countries to the level of a bad influenza season in northern hemisphere countries. The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimated the worse influenza season during the past decade in 2017–18 caused about 52 000 influenza deaths with a likely peak of more than 1500 deaths per day.11 The era of extraordinary measures by government and societies to control SARS-CoV-2 transmission will be over. After the omicron wave, COVID-19 will return but the pandemic will not.
MUCH MORE:
https://www.thelancet.com/action/showPdf?pii=S0140-6736%2822%2900100-3
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(22)00100-3/fulltext
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The stubbornness of a large segment of the population has hindered our progress to a great degree. Obviously, there is no magic solution and we have been navigating in uncharted territory in many respects, but we could have done so much better if more people understood how serious the virus is.
they can't possibly know that. They are betting on the more likely scenario. Notice i say more likely, not most likely. This is informed speculation... but speculation nonetheless. Personally, i think it may be irresponsible on the Lancet's part to say this with seeming assurance.
i am vaccinated and boosted. But science still speculates. The complaint i had about the Lancet article is that it is still just hypothesis at this point... ie. speculation. I just think Covid has shown us how unpredictable viral mutations can become. And even though there may only be a 10% (or whatever % you want to ascribe) chance of the virus evading all our efforts and immunities, it's still enough for me to think they shouldn't be saying "the pandemic is over". Also, when someone tells me something is "based on science", i tend to look at it like i might a movie that is "based on a true story".
Sorry, nice reasoning etc. But I disagree with the philosophical basis of the article.
Too early to be spinning this way.
Too many people are still dying - not just in US but globally.
And the Global situation is not discussed enough in this country...of coarse.
