Put a fork in Omicron

[jlerollblues]

it's going to be done peaking in days. The tweet speaks for itself. I includes an erratum, that affected previous forecasts. It is fixed and Northern Hemisphere forecasts will start in a few days (besides the US ones).

Folks, I think we can be relieved. The next week or so should hopefully bear out the projections. This model nailed the last 2 waves months in advance. Omicron presented new problems for all models. Stay diligent but hopefully enjoy this good projection.

Link to tweet

?s=20

[dalton99a]

1. Kick

[Skittles]

2. they're all gonna peak

the real issue is when will new ones stop forming? Harder to say when you have so many people pushing their pro-Covid crap

[OhioChick]

6. This n/t

[Skittles]

23. I mean, WTF

https://www.barrons.com/articles/us-covid-19-deaths-51643194358

[uponit7771]

20. +1, its the pro covid assholes that get us new variants

[Zeitghost]

21. There is no stop mutating phase

Corona viruses mutate, which is why we continually get seasonal colds. Through a combination of vaccines and infections we will build immunity both individually and as a group. Eventually as most build that immunity and a tragic few pass away (and to clarify that is a relative few, obviously millions have died globally) COVID 19 will become an endemic disease similar to colds and flues.

[Ms. Toad]

28. Already formed.

There is a variant under investigation (one step below naming it) with, I believe 26 mutations on top of the Omicron mutations.

It is already in 4 continents and 40 countries.

[WHITT]

3. The W.H.O. Disagrees

Do not assume COVID pandemic reaching 'end game', warns WHO


GENEVA, Jan 24 (Reuters) - The head of the World Health Organization (WHO) warned on Monday that it was dangerous to assume the Omicron variant would herald the end of COVID-19's acutest phase, exhorting nations to stay focused to beat the pandemic.

"It’s dangerous to assume that Omicron will be the last variant and that we are in the end game," Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus told a WHO executive board meeting of the two-year pandemic that has killed nearly 6 million people.

"On the contrary, globally the conditions are ideal for more variants to emerge."


https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/who-chief-says-world-critical-juncture-covid-pandemic-2022-01-24/

[SheltieLover]

5. Om8cron BA2 is already in 40 countries & several US states

Too many sources to even begin to list them.

[left-of-center2012]

4. Peaking in days ?

Reports here in New Mexico say it may
be mid-February for this latest variant to peak.

Many will get sick and some will die by then.
I'll put off celebrating for now.

[Poiuyt]

7. In my area, the number of cases is dropping precipitously

It skyrocketed at the beginning of January but is dropping as fast as it went up. Still severely high, but I like the direction it's moving.

I'll keep wearing my mask.

[634-5789]

8. I'll check bsck when it's BEHIND us. Too early to rejoice

[BadgerKid]

9. National isn't local. Global isn't national.

Continue your precautions.

[EastMeetsWest]

10. It's just getting into high gear here in Japan

I just found out that my own area has just been included in the "soft lockdown" list. In other words, we can usually go about our daily activities as we always have, but bars and restaurants will be asked to close earlier, and some public facilities, like public recreation facilities, will likely be closed until late February (compliance is voluntary, but most "state" and local governments will go along with the suggested guidelines).

So, it looks like I won't be able to go for a swim in the municipal heated pool, or go to the municipal hot spring spa, until the A-OK is given. Bummer. I was hoping to go to the municipal spa tomorrow, since I can work out in the gym, swim in the heated pool, and bathe in the onsen hot springs all for around $7.00 for the package.


A private hot spring will still be open, though-- around $9.00, just for spa facilities.

[orangecrush]

14. Municipal hot springs"?

Why don't we have that here?

[EastMeetsWest]

15. I don't know

Hot spring spas are common in Japan, and various municipalities run their own spas. Germany, too, from what I've heard. The only US hot springs resort area I can think of is Hot Springs, Arkansas, which is supposed to be a national park. But when I went there (1986), I was like, Where is the National Park?

[waddirum]

19. Saratoga Springs in New York

has a public hot springs spa inside of the park.

[NJCher]

11. Welcome to du, jlerol

Thanks for the good news. It is definitely happening here in the Northeast.

One thing you might think twice about, however, is to ever predict anything positive here, even if your source is well-established and recognized. You can actually write the follow up posts because they are so predictable.

Numero uno will be the “yes but there is another demon down the road” post. Not content to stick to the topic of the OP, this poster has to remind us there is doom around the corner. Surprise surprise. Why, gasp, I would never have thought of that!

Next up will be the post that says your source is wrong, citing a source that said so before your source even uttered a word.

So there!

There will be many, many posters who promise you they will not be holding their breath. Thank heavens they assured us their demise will not come about as the result of some positive news. I am just so relieved.

Get the picture?

How might one post good news here? Here is a sample subject line:

Prominent Scientist Becomes a Silly Boy

Or

On To the Next Covid Variation!

[Meowmee]

12. At 2400 or so deaths per day for 7 days average it is

Not time to jump for joy

[left-of-center2012]

13. I agree

Not due to peak in New Mexico until mid February.
There have been several posts on DU this past week saying that the MSM is 'hyping' this variant and under reporting it's collapse.

I do not understand..
They keep proclaiming it's end.

[Meowmee]

18. I am not sure

Since there is no way to know who is behind a screen name etc. there certainly is a component that attacks and derides anyone questioning the many obvious botched policies re covid or any questioning of their statistics/ narrative.

Maybe they need to have a beloved family member be murdered by covid and other factors, to sit for hours in hospital er and wards for months on end being abused, to care for a family member or friend 24/7 whose life has been destroyed, or to have had covid pneumonia with severe pain and longterm symptoms to realize that some of us will never be jumping for joy at anything re: covid, even if it really does turn out to be good news. I will simply heave a sigh if relief that maybe it is finally getting better. And others who are using logic smartly have made the choice to be as cautious as possible not to end up in that situation.

In our county pos rate is 35% but graph is going down so it was reported that cases are not being properly counted/ reported at nyt. And we know most people aren’t even testing, and many who would can’t get testing. Never underestimate the stupidity of a huge portion of the population either.

[Klaralven]

16. New Jersey 7-day moving average is down to 9080 cases /day, down from 31,699 on 1/10

Deaths are 111 / day and still climbing, but deaths lag new cases by weeks.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/new-jersey/

[BlackSkimmer]

27. If you think only republicans are getting this disease, you're very much mistaken. nt

[Zeitghost]

22. We peaked here in the US

on the 15th of January.

[Ace Rothstein]

24. Illinois is beyond our peak.

Cases, hospitalizations and ICU usage have plummeted.

[Caliman73]

25. The OP said, "put a fork in Omicron"

I didn't read anything saying that we should stop wearing masks, getting boosted, vaccinated, or taking precautions. I didn't see anything relating to new variants.

I saw numbers crunched indicating that this particular strain of the COVID-19 virus seems to have reached the peak of infectiousness and are trending down.

I will definitely say that we need to keep up safety precautions, but also that we should not read into people's statements, but rather maybe ask questions about exactly what the person is trying to communicate.

[BlackSkimmer]

26. Gotta agree.