Inflation Receding

[WHITT]

PART ONE: The Data


* Consumer Price Index
* Producer Price Index
* Personal Consumption Expenditures (Favorite FED Metric)


* CPI

0.9 October
0.8 November
0.5 December


* PPI

0.6 October
1.0 November
0.2 December


* PCE

0.6 October
0.6 November
0.4 December

~~


PART TWO: The Forecast

Inflation Losing Steam By The Day

Inflation in the U.S. has already peaked and is decelerating, according to The Conference Board, the global independent business research association.

That may come as a surprise to employers who are raising wages and benefits to attract needed workers, and to consumers who are tracking the rising price of gas, groceries and many other goods.

But in a briefing to the press this week, Conference Board economists presented data showing how inflation rates actually topped out around 5.5% in December of 2021 and are headed to below 3% by the end of this year.

More:
https://insurancenewsnet.com/innarticle/inflation-losing-steam-by-the-day-conference-board-economists-say

[orwell]

1. Shhhhhh...

...(why discredit a good meme when it generates so many talking points for grifter corporations, anti-democratic right wing trolls, media conglomerate talking heads with seven figure salaries, billionaire sock puppets with "grass roots" political organizations, and Russian GRU meme farms backed by murderous sociopaths...)

DON'T INTERUPT MY TIRADE WITH FACTS!

FAKE NEWS!

Carry on comrade...

[groundloop]

6. "talking points for grifter corporations"

That's exactly what I've been ranting about recently. Greedy assed corporations are using the inflation bogeyman as another excuse to jack up prices. CEOs are perfectly fine with paying employees far less than they're worth, and with stagnating wages which come nowhere close to keeping up with the cost of living, but they sure as hell won't allow their own paychecks to drop by one red cent.

[Wounded Bear]

2. K & R...nt

[empedocles]

3. No surprise. Did not look like historical inflations.

[groundloop]

7. Economists have said for a long time that there'd be a period of inflation.....

coming out of the pandemic. It's a result of companies who laid of employees, cut back inventories, cancelled orders, etc. during the first part of the pandemic scrambling to get back up to speed. Economists told us this was going to happen quite a while ago, now that their assessments are proving correct everyone is going into panic mode and the GQP is playing it for all it's worth.

[Tickle]

4. Would you please let

my gas station, grocery store and oil company know this please. Apparently they didn’t get the memo

[Poiuyt]

5. Yes, but today the headlines on CNN are about how the economy is about to go into reverse.

[roamer65]

8. ..and so is my hairline.

Sorry, I just couldn’t resist the pun.

[Mr.Bill]

9. Gas has gone down here. I'm about 150 miles north of San Francisco.

It peaked around 4.89 for regular and I bought regular gas last weekend for 4.09. I've noticed a few grocery items, like beef go down a little, too but still much higher than a year ago.

[FBaggins]

10. So much for that notion

U.S. inflation accelerated in January, with prices across a wide range of goods and services soaring further amid lingering shortages and supply chain disruptions.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics Thursday morning registered a 7.5% annual gain in January. Consensus economists were looking for a 7.3% rise, according to Bloomberg data. This represented the fastest rise since 1982, as well as an acceleration from the 7.0% year-over-year increase seen in December. ... On a month-over-month basis, consumer price increased by 0.6%, matching the rate seen at the end of 2021

https://www.democraticunderground.com/10142867148

[Amishman]

11. Yup, Jan numbers just released broke that trend. Not good at all

Right or wrong, voters are going to tar and feather our asses with this unless we take action.

Economic issues, especially inflation, need to be our absolute top priority right now.

'It's the economy, stupid'

[WHITT]

12. Actually

CPI declined from 0.9 in OCT, to 0.8 in NOV, and down to 0.5 in DEC.

So, 0.6 is barely different than the 0.5 last month, and still down substantially from November and October.

It's likely because gas, which had been declining, turned around because of various global developments.

[Amishman]

13. all items less food and energy was still 0.6% gain from Dec

we keep saying its fading because X dropped. The overall level remains high because of the overall trend is upwards despite a few individuals items calming down. Whackamole, one goes up as another goes down.

lumber, rolled steel, and other raw materials are surging again.

[WHITT]

14. No

the "overall level" does not "remain high".

DEC was almost HALF the rate from OCT, and JAN is barely up from there. Ignore the yearly numbers the MSM is flogging, that's old news.

[Amishman]

20. you are cherrypicking, the overall picture is not good

December was a dip in a few areas, but the recently released numbers are in line with the trend of the earlier months data. Dec was an aberration, not the beginning of a larger downward trend in the rate.

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm#:~:text=www.bls.gov%2Fcpi,of%20Labor%20Statistics%20reported%20today.

Transportation up 1% from 0 in dec, medical care services up 0.6% from dec, apparel up 1.1% from dec, medical care commodities up 0.9% from dec. These are month over month gains, so while those totals seem small, its only for one month.

Core CPI from prior month in Dec: 0.6%, same 0.6% in january.

Its ugly when looking on an annual basis too.

Dec 2020 to Dec 2021 was 7% overall, 5.5% core CPI (excluding food and energy)
Jan 2021 to Jan 2022 was 7.5% overall, core CPI 6%

Not good, and pretending otherwise doesn't help.

[WHITT]

21. Nevermind

Believe whatever you like.

[FBaggins]

17. Sorry... that isn't how it works

The OP is an example of "cherry-picking".

If you looked at the months prior to that you could have made the same case - and yet Oct-Dec would have proven that wrong.

June - 0.9
July - 0.5
August - 0.3
Sept - 0.4

There's a reason that annual figures get reported - and it isn't that the media wants to "flag" something. It's that month-to-month changes are less relevant than January-over-January.

[WHITT]

19. NOPE

It's that month-to-month changes are less relevant than January-over-January.

That's exactly backwards.

[FBaggins]

22. Note that the Conference Board has already revised their prediction

They no longer say that inflation peaked in December or that we'll get below 3% by the end of the year... and they make clear that the risks in their forecast are all to the upside (as this morning's hint toward PCE makes clear)

As for your "NOPE" - you're simply wrong - month-to-month swings are far too volatile to be useful. You should note that your source uses %Y/Y - feel free to tell them that they don't know what they're doing.

[spanone]

15. Not according to our 'liberal media'

'worse in FORTY YEARS' rinse, repeat

[Emile]

16. Just heard that on MSNBC. Blaming rising wages, etc etc

Never once blaming Predatory Capitalism.

[Celerity]

18. This aged well

[Amishman]

23. even if the rate of increase had remained stable, it would still be a big problem

'Yes, the house is still on fire, but the fire is growing more slowly' is not a reason to be upbeat.

7.5% overall, 6% core CPI is painful. Especially for working class Americans, since wages to not appear to be keeping up.

We can try to cherry pick and find a silver lining, but there isn't enough lipstick to make this pig pretty.

This is a huge problem and needs to be recognized as such and made a top priority.

[Celerity]

24. +1

[WHITT]

25. Since

you can't seem to grasp that DEC was less than 56% of OCT, and JAN is less than 67% of OCT, I'm wasting any response.

[FBaggins]

27. You're really stuck on that monthly figure

No response as to why AUG was 66% less than JUN and yet it didn't signal that inflation had peaked.

Have you heard back on your correction of the Conference Board yet? Are they embarrassed to learn that their constant use of %Y/Y is "backwards" from what they should be focused on?

[Amishman]

28. you are cherry picking only the rate of increase and ignoring the overall picture

The october data you mention uses October 2020 as its baseline

October 2020 CPI was 1.2%, before the current inflation spike started. Those lower inflation baseline months dropping off gives you that downward rate of increase trend you seem to be cherry picking and clinging to. The more recent numbers have less favorable months as their baseline as we are now over a year into this inflation wave.

https://www.bls.gov/opub/ted/2020/consumer-prices-increase-1-point-2-percent-for-the-12-months-ending-october-2020.htm

As I've posted several times and backed up with data, look at the overall picture. Inflation is up across the board and is getting worse. It should be alarming to anyone with open eyes.

[sarisataka]

26. The verb in your title should be

Slowing, not receding.

Receding implies prices are coming down. They are not, just not going up as fast. But prices are increasing on top of the previous increases