I think the administrations "Russia on the verge of invading" is a stroke of geniius

[WarGamer]

Reverse Psychology.

Biden says "Russia going to invade Ukraine"

Putin says "No, I'm not..."

DoD says "Invasion imminent"

Next day, the Kremlin spokesperson (their version of Psaki) said:

"Maybe the Americans can advise me of the "Invasion Days" so I can plan my vacations and time off?"

Then Snowden comes out and mocks the "invasion talk" on Twitter...

See? The harder that the West says "Russia will invade"... they less likely they are to actually doing it.

Literally... to "win"... Putin won't invade, just to spite Biden.

Silly geopolitical theater.

lol...

[doc03]

1. I hope that fool doesn't decide to take on NATO that would be WWIII. nt

[WarGamer]

3. He won't

It would be a stupid move.

He's not a stupid man.

He's playing for concessions and negotiations.

If he walks away with concessions, that's his real goal.

PLUS think about it... the longer he leaves troops on the border the more money Russia makes from international oil prices.

[Irish_Dem]

6. Some reports of a marked change in Putin's mental status lately.

If true, it makes it harder for us to predict his next move.

He is not stupid, far from it actually. But if he is becoming more violent, paranoid and feeling cornered, he could make moves out of character for him.

I agree that he wants to walk away with a number of things.

[WarGamer]

7. I believe he's PERFECTLY capable of supporting a coup or worse...

But I can't see a full scale invasion.

I think it's laughable when people talk about Russia v Ukraine 2022 with the same lens as von Rundstedt and Kesselring leading 100 divisions into France in 1940, with 3 million men and 3000 tanks.

The planet will NEVER see that kind of war again, fortunately.

[Irish_Dem]

8. Recent OP saying it is Russian war mongering generals pushing the invasion.

Ukraine cannot be compared to the French Army in 1940.

The French Army at the time was probably the strongest army in the world. A match for Germany.

This cannot be said of Ukraine.

[WarGamer]

9. On paper, yes... the French would stand the Germans straight up.

Didn't work that way.

The Blitzkrieg was the greatest change in warfare since the 19th Century when armies started spending LESS time in lines taking turns to shoot each other and started fighting battles of maneuver and position.

The US Civil War was the turning point.

In fact... mobile warfare of the kind practiced by Forrest, Stuart and Sherman heavily influenced people like Guderian and Montgomery... in fact, GS Patton was such an aficionado of the Civil War, he kind of fancied himself as a 19th Century General. He also had a grandfather in the Confederacy, a Colonel KIA in 1864.

[PatSeg]

14. I agree

I don't think we can assume that Putin will be predictable. He has invested a whole lot into this show of his, I don't see him taking his tanks and troops and slinking back home in defeat.

[Irish_Dem]

16. I don't either Pat.

[Ex Lurker]

17. There were rumors going around a while back that he may have Parkinson's

which can affect mental status.

[Irish_Dem]

21. Yes. Bush Sr had full blown untreated Grave's disease.

When he started the Gulf War.

Psychologists talked about it at the time.
But citizens didn't seem to care.

[electric_blue68]

28. Oh, never heard that...

checking the Mayo Clinic site the two psychological symptoms are irritability, and anxiety.

You think that'd be enough to have brought on the Gulf War?

[Irish_Dem]

29. You can goggle it. Right, it was buried at the time.

It was a medical mystery in that his wife, Barbara Bush also was diagnosed with it.

[electric_blue68]

31. 👍 wow, Barbara B, too?! Weird

[Irish_Dem]

32. Yes they looked for possible environmental triggers

in the WH, but never found anything conclusive.

People around Bush Sr at the time he initiated the Gulf War reported he was hyperactive, highly energized, flight of ideas, etc. Somewhat manic.

All typical of an overactive thyroid.

Psychologists put the mental status situation and the start of the war together, but no one seemed at all interested.

[electric_blue68]

33. Woah, that's not so good...

"...hyperactive, highly energized, flight of ideas, etc. Somewhat manic.

Mayo Clinic didn't mention those as symptoms.
Surprised they didn't (not disputing you 👍 ).

[Irish_Dem]

34. Sxs are consistent with thyroid problems.

These are some of the descriptions given by aides around him
at the time of the Gulf War.

These sxs certainly could be consistent with thyroid problems.
Older people can have different symptoms than younger patients.

It is not unusual for undiagnosed thyroid patients to present with psych symptoms: depressed, anxious, agitated, manic, hyperactive, cognitive difficulties, etc.

In some cases a primary care doc will miss the dx, thinking it is a mental health issue and send the patient to a psychologist or psychiatrist. But the patient is not presenting in a classic mood or dementia pattern, so there are sent back to the primary care doc for blood work.

[doc03]

12. I don't think he is playing for concessions and negotiations. I watched RT for a few minutes they

are running news updates on the bottom of the screen. They have Ukraine attacking Donbass, Crimea, blowing up
gas pipelines and Russian refugees are pouring into Russia. This is the same playbook Hitler used in WWII. If he invades Ukraine
Trump and Republicans will take Russia's side and blame Biden. I think his goal is to get Trump and Republicans back in office and
and turn the US into an authoritarian dictatorship. They are also spreading unrest in Canada for the same reason. I wouldn't be surprised if Trump is involved in this also. Now they are threatening to bring the truck blockades to this country, slow moving civil war.

[Irish_Dem]

30. Excellent points. You have connected all the dots.

I agree with what you are saying.
This is a very likely scenario.

The trucker convoys are a part of the Putin/Trump plan.
The timing is not a coincidence.

Yes, we have seen this plan before.

[ProudMNDemocrat]

2. Joe knows how to play 3 dimensional Chess.

Messaging baby!

That is why Joe is the man for this job. I did not have any doubts when I was backing him during the Primary season. Joe is rising up to the occasion and he has not disappointed as of yet.

The other stuff, that is on the Republicans, Manchin, and Sinema.

[PatSeg]

15. I've been a huge supporter of Joe for years

and he has exceeded even my expectations this past year.

[Demsrule86]

19. Me too!

[PatSeg]

25. This is the most right I've ever been

when it comes to politicians. It is nice to have someone you believe in fulfilling your expectations.

[Pantagruel]

4. My gut agrees

Putin knows invading and especially occupying is a quagmire of Afghani proportions.
BUT, threatening invasion is the opening gambit to extracting concessions.

Now you need some kind of nothing burger accord so both sides can walk away without shame?

[WarGamer]

5. I think the Russians will milk it.

They'll be there for months.

After a while the "invasion imminent" stuff will be a joke.

All the while enjoying $100/bb oil prices.

Think about it...

When oil is $45/bb... profit is X... but when oil hits $90, profit will NOT be 2 times X

It may be 5-6X

From the Russian perspective, call this "Operation New Yacht and mansion on the Black Sea"

[bhikkhu]

10. I wouldn't be surprised if they milked it like tfg milked the trade disputes

...which is to say, once you get the feel for how the markets react to both good news and bad news, then you can day-trade around it. If you're the guy creating the good news and bad news then you know pretty closely what the market is going to do as long as all eyes are on you, its pretty easy.

[WarGamer]

11. +100 like the other day when the market popped because the Russians reported pullbacks.

How many oligarchs had thousands of Call Options of SPY that day, lol??

[iemanja]

13. FFS

It's already happening. Tanks will be in the streets and you'll still be denying it.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/02/19/russia-ukraine-updates/

[Quixote1818]

20. You don't know that at all. If he really wanted to invade he would have done so a long time ago

and quick action would have caught NATO off guard both militarily and politically. A swift and surprising invasion would be key for it not to become a disaster and for limiting the risks. Just as with Krimea back in 2014. Everything suggests Putin wanted to take advantage of this scenario to reinforce Russia's international presence to send a message to other countries in his orbit, including of course, Kieve and to fractured NATO. Given the initial reactions such as France and Germany, which were in favor of seeking conciliations and even distancing themselves from Washington - Putin may not have been far from getting his way. This time however, the strong reaction from the US may have turned the tables.

[iemanja]

24. It's just a coincidence that Ukraine is being shelled now

Just like Crimea. This has Putin's hands all over it. I do know it.

Nothing you say refutes the fact that Russia is behind this shelling. Your assessment of what you think Putin wants doesn't substitute for what we are seeing.

There was never going to be a surprise invasion. There can't be anything surprising about an invasion that's been hyped up for months. It's about as surprising as Iraq.

He's doing this so he can affect plausible deniability, again, like Crimea. And those who want an excuse to believe him will play along.

[Quixote1818]

26. He has a lot more to lose than to gain. He understands a full fledged invasion would be

a huge disaster for Russia. You could end up right but if so then Putin is a total fool. I just don't think he is that stupid. Shelling has been going on for months. It is by no means unusual for shelling to take place in the Donbas region, which has effectively been in a state of civil war for nearly eight years now. The area includes two self-declared republics that broke away following the pro-European 2014 Ukrainian revolution.

[iemanja]

27. It has increased greatly

and the Ukranian president says Russia is behind it. https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/02/19/ukraine-russia-munich-zelensky/ I believe him.
Russia has been building up troops along Ukraine's border for a while now. And you think he's worried about his reputation over shelling Ukraine. There is no logic or truth to your argument.

[WarGamer]

35. You do understand...

The shelling isn't coming from Russia, right?

For more than a year, the Ukranian gov't has been in conflict with Ukrainian separatists in the Donbas and Lugansk regions (inside Ukraine). They regularly shell each other.

This is nothing new.

[iemanja]

36. The Ukranian president disagrees

and he is demanding the West do something.
The separatists are backed by Russia, and Putin is putting them up to it.

Ukrainian officials said the shelling came exclusively from the separatists, who are seen as a proxy for Russia

.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/19/world/europe/shelling-escalates-in-eastern-ukraine-as-us-officials-warn-of-pretexts-for-a-russian-invasion.html

[Beetwasher.]

18. Yup Exactly

[highplainsdem]

22. I agree.

[Mr. Ected]

23. The problem for Putin with Psychops is that we know how he operates

So we can stay a step ahead of him. There's nothing as obvious as a bullshitter setting up his next scam. Joe saw it a mile away.