Russia: using logic so twisted, even a pretzel would blush in embarrassment

[DFW]

From the Washington Post:

"[Russian foreign minister Sergei] Lavrov, commenting on Russia’s recognition of two separatist enclaves in eastern Ukraine, argued that because Kyiv lost control of the regions to separatists in 2014, it was not a sovereign nation."

OK, so is he also saying the PRC, since they lost control of Taiwan in 1949, is also not a sovereign nation? In the 19th century, Mexico lost control of Texas and California. Is Mexico then also not a sovereign nation? Spain lost control of Puerto Rico and the Philippines after the war of 1898. Is Spain also not a sovereign nation? For that matter, Russia lost control of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia in 1991, and Latvia has 25% ethnic Russians, Estonia probably even a greater percentage. Is Russia then also not a sovereign nation?

Putin is getting downright insulting if he thinks we--or ANYBODY--is going to fall for that one. So what's next? If Ukraine is not a "sovereign nation," does that mean that Russia has the right to send in its military and grab the whole place? Does NATO? Does anyone? We need a few more speeches like that of the Kenyan ambassador to the UN. Kenya certainly has no power to do anything to Russia, but its words have to have stung.

[Guilded Lilly]

1. Putin has never given a damn about truth...

Or telling it.

[DFW]

2. Indeed. No wonder Trump admired him so much.

Putin gets away with it. Trump never figured out how to do that.

[Scrivener7]

3. "So what's next?" Indeed.

[CaliforniaPeggy]

4. Thanks for the very clear thinking, my dear DFW! It's refreshing, after...

all the Russian convolutions!

[secondwind]

5. The man has Parkinson's, expect him to act even more crazy.... as time goes on.

[Irish_Dem]

6. China is going to use the same excuse when it invades Taiwan.

Russia and China have a common goal. They want to be superpowers in a world where western democracies have been greatly weakened.

They must show their strength and regional control. So Ukraine and Taiwan are important symbols to them.

[Calista241]

11. Taiwan is an order of magnitude more difficult invasion than Russia driving 50 miles overland

Taiwan is across a straight, 100 miles of open water. Taiwan has thousands upon thousands of anti-ship missiles that are quite capable of sinking big troop ships. These missiles are distributed all over the country, so China can't just bomb Taiwan for a week or a month and expect to degrade Taiwan's ability to sink troop ships.

China invading Taiwan would require years of buildup, and would look more like the Allies invasion of France in 1944 than Russia invading Ukraine. Hell, China does not have enough Navy ships (nor does Russia if they decide to team up) to simply ferry mass amounts of troops and equipment to Taiwan presently. Taiwan will also sink ships in both major harbors to prevent China from using Taiwanese built infrastructure to land and deploy troops.

In addition, Taiwan Semiconductor, and other Taiwanese foundries, make 60% of the total number of silicon chips consumed worldwide. Loss of those factories will plunge the world into a depression the likes of which hasn't been seen since the 1930's. Taiwan would probably destroy the factories to prevent the Chinese seizing them if it came to an invasion. The rest of the world would be much more interested and invested in the outcome any Chinese / Taiwanese conflict.

Seizing Taiwan is simply impossible for the next 15 - 20 years for the Chinese military.

[Irish_Dem]

14. Some say it could be done in three days.

China has been building up its Navy and Air Force for decades.

The Chinese Navy is now said to be one of the largest in the world with 355 ships. Their Air Force is the largest in the region and third largest in the world. Some say there are Army battalions stationed across the Taiwan Straight.

-China damages all internet and communication on Taiwan.
-Carpet bombs, massive air strikes on military installations.
- Assassinates all military and civilian leaders (like Putin has been talking about in Ukraine.)
-Surrounds Taiwan with navy power. Once encircled can begin to negotiate like Putin is now doing in the Ukraine.
-The recent construction of the large Yuzhao-class amphibious transport docks and the 26 Landing Ship, Tanks would allow for
movement of troops to Taiwan.

Also there are pro Chinese residents in Taiwan, so there would be a civil war at the time of the invasion.

It has to be a quick strike, like Hitler did, so as not to give time for the Americans to become involved.

[Calista241]

15. It's not that easy. Not even close

First thing China would have to do is move a million troops to the ports of Southern China. That is something everyone would see coming for months and months. We'd know within hours of the start of any large scale troop movements within China, and Taiwan would know 30 minutes after that. It took the Russians 1 full year to assemble the 190k troops in theater that he's using to invade the Ukraine. It would take China at least that long, and probably much longer to just assemble their invasion force.

The Taiwan strait is then going to be mined so heavily, civilian ships will be unable to sail the strait for years after any conflict. Harbor infrastructure will be destroyed, mined and obstructed to prevent the Chinese forces from taking and utilizing them. The few beaches that China could use for an amphibious landing would have the same treatment.

For the Chinese Navy, each of those 30 landing ships can carry 800 troops. That's less than 30k troops in each wave, and a handful of light tanks and infantry fighting vehicles. Even accompanied by a massive airborne assault, which will also be super costly for the Chinese, those troops are going to be massively, hugely outgunned and outnumbered for days or weeks. Helicopters will be very vulnerable to the thousands of stinger missiles the Taiwanese have. Taiwan also builds their own version of the land based US CIWS, and apparently has built hundreds of them. Those are easily concealable, and would make short work of any airborne assault that comes within range.

Now, let's say that Taiwan manages to sink 1/3 of those ships in each wave with their US made anti-ship missiles. Each successive wave will get progressively smaller. Then let's say the Chinese seize some civilian ships to convert them into troop ships. Those are even more easily sunk, and they can only put people and maybe some ammunition on those vessels, but no heavy weapons, no artillery, and no armor.

Given an unlimited time frame, China could certainly take the island, but they will pay a crazy heavy price in both lives and material. But the US, and the rest of the world, would have plenty of time to think things through and decide what our actions would be, if any. And Taiwan would have plenty of time to get loans and take delivery of millions of tons of military equipment and hardware.

[DFW]

17. China would probably never invade with weapons

If ever, it would invade with thousands of fifth columnists and a phony "surprise upset election victory" the way Republicans do it in the USA. It is economically a lot more efficient to taker over an undamaged thriving economy, without firing a shot, than it is to bomb the place back to Stone Age and then pay for the reconstruction.

What Putin professes not to understand is that NATO hasn't the slightest interest in taking over Russia's economy, territory or population. We wouldn't want if it were handed to us on a silver platter, gift-wrapped. I think he is smart enough to know that only too well. It just doesn't suit his current territorial ambitions to say so out loud.

[dalton99a]

7. 2014:

[Baitball Blogger]

8. Either he's getting more disingenious, or we're just out of fucks to give.

I am glad that the world is calling him out on his weak psych-oped excuses. He does really comes across like a dinosaur from the Cold War era.

[uponit7771]

10. +1

[The Magistrate]

9. The Insolence Is The Point, Sir

The lies are not intended to convince or persuade, but to demonstrate such control over events there is no need either to convince or persuade anyone to agreement. The less grounding in reality the lies have, the more effective the demonstration is.

[msfiddlestix]

12. ✔️ ✔️ ✔️ ✔️ ✔️

and though it goes without saying, it bears repeating that Republicans and TRump cultist leaders adapted that playbook very effectively,

[harumph]

13. spot on.

It goes beyond gaslighting. It's a disregard for a coherent narrative as a power demonstration.
Reminds me of the attribution Suskind made of Carl Rove:

The aide said that guys like me [Suskind] were "in what we call the reality-based community," which he defined as people who "believe that solutions emerge from your judicious study of discernible reality." I nodded and murmured something about enlightenment principles and empiricism. He cut me off. "That's not the way the world really works anymore," he continued. "We're an empire now, and when we act, we create our own reality. And while you're studying that reality — judiciously, as you will — we'll act again, creating other new realities, which you can study too, and that's how things will sort out. We're history's actors ... and you, all of you, will be left to just study what we do." [The New York Times Magazine]

[dalton99a]

16. +1

[Wounded Bear]

18. Heard a commentator say yesterday that Putin wants to be Peter the Great...

and restore the old Russian Empire with him as the Tsar.

The buildup to this Ukraine operation has real echoes of 1938-9 and the takeover of Czechoslovakia just prior to the Polish invasion that kicked off WWII in Europe. I assume more Europeans are cognizant of that history.

The tactics that Authoritarians use over the centuries hasn't changed much, just the tools they use.

I worry a lot about the cyber war that seems all too imminent.

I always appreciate your European insights DFW. Nice to have someone on the ground, so to speak.

[DFW]

19. Sometimes, I think I'm a little too close on the ground for comfort.

It's only a two hour flight from Düsseldorf to Kiyv. Between Germany and the Ukraine, there is only Poland, and like the western Ukraine, most of it is flat as a pancake.

[Wounded Bear]

20. Not a lot of defensible terrain...

a problem that has bedeviled nations like Ukraine and Poland for centuries.

Good luck!

[DFW]

21. This time, Ukraine will put up a hell of fight, and Poland is NATO

IF Putin wants to take Ukraine, it will have to be a Hitler-like Blitzkrieg, being at the Polish border with 24 hours of launching his attack. Any other way will result in a LOT of Russian body bags, and THAT is something Putin can't afford. They'll cheer him in the streets as far as we can see, because that's all we're ALLOWED to see. The generals and the FSB can always find someone else if they want.