Some interesting analysis on why Youngkin won the VA Governorship by 2.It wasn't mask mandates

[JoanofArgh]

Last edited Tue Mar 15, 2022, 09:24 AM - Edit history (1)

and school closures. It was the fact that 75 and over voter turnout was up 2.7%

Link to tweet

?s=20&t=rVvBvs0HykHedGXXYkxh7w


How did VA give Biden a 10 pt victory, only to see McAuliffe lose by 2 a year later? The popular narrative after election day pointed the finger at CRT, mask mandates, and school closures driving a swing bloc of suburban parents. Our new analysis suggests a more complex answer.

You'll find the analysis here, but here's the short version:
https://insights.targetsmart.com/did-education-sway-the-va-election-maybe-but-probably-not.html

The biggest difference between '20 and '21 was senior turnout. More voters over the age of 75 voted in VA in '21 than have voted in any election other than 2020. While aging population explains that partly, the huge 2.7 pt increase in age 75+ vote share was mostly about turnout.

Were these seniors driven by school issues, despite not having school-age children? Possibly, and likely partially, but to be clear, that's very different than the narrative of parents of school kids infuriated by what they were told was being taught in their schools.


Let's look at the second narrative: mask mandates and school closures causing a swing to the GOP. Our analysis found no correlation between the number of days with in-person education during the '20-'21 school year and swing to the GOP in the Governor vote.

In fact, the counties with the least in person days were largely in NoVA, and exhibited below average swing, while the areas that swung the most to the GOP (mostly SWVA) were in person for most of the year.


The senior vote surged. By a lot.

Turnout among voters age 75 or older increased by 59%, relative to 2017 while turnout among voters under age 30 only increased by just 18%. Notably, turnout of all other age groups combined (18-74), which would likely include parents of school-aged children, only increased by 9% compared to 2017.

These are massive changes in the electorate in an election that was far from a blowout: Youngkin won by just 2%.

Voters age 65 and older are an estimated 15.9% of Virginia’s population according to the census, yet accounted for 31.9% of all ballots cast in 2021.

348,314 more seniors (ages 65+) voted in Virginia’s 2021 gubernatorial election than in the 2016 presidential election.
The Virginia market with the largest increase in senior vote share (ages 65+) from 2017 to was Charlottesville (67% increase), followed by the spill Raleigh-Durham market (48% increase).

Notably, turnout among voters of color also surged in 2021 compared to 2017: African-American turnout surged 13%, Hispanic turnout by 17.5% and Asian-American turnout by 37%. (An earlier version of this analysis compared final early vote data from 2017 to 2021. That error has been corrected.)

[underpants]

1. Interesting. This speaks to ease of voting to me.

Also, Youngkin ran a really good campaign by any standard. He was everywhere ad wise as soon as he got the nomination. He and his staff really figured out how to play the ranked voting system in their primary.

MacAuliffe ran a bad campaign. He didn’t put in the work. He wasn’t going to win anything in the valley or west of Roanoke but you still have to put in time there. He didn’t.

[JoanofArgh]

3. I don't live in VA but from what I saw on TV , I wasn't impressed by his campaign or

his messaging. Still would have voted for him , of course but he needed to swing the swing voters.

[Duppers]

13. ...same here.

And I live in the state.

In fact, a colleague of my husband's who lives in Suffolk called me to ask if I knew anyone in his campaign and if so, could I please tell them that he/they need stronger messaging. That was an observation that my husband and I had already agreed about.

[pstokely]

20. he was expecting a big anti-tRump vote

but he wasn't much of a factor

[Demovictory9]

2. old a*ssholes screwing the young over

[Doc Sportello]

7. Or the young assholes who don't vote

Are screwing themselves over.

[Demovictory9]

12. True

[empedocles]

4. And, Dems looked weak - unable to get the wings of the Dem Party, behind their own legislation.

[The Magistrate]

5. That Demographic, Ma'am

Is and always has been the real target of the 'CRT' swill, people already in or near their teens during the civil rights movement who resent and all their lives have resisted any attempts at establishing equality between white and black Americans.

[FBaggins]

6. A 2.7% greater turnout by one demographic does not explain a twelve point swing overall

Nor does this weak-sauce attempt to pretend that voters in one county aren't influenced by events in other counties.

[FSogol]

8. Actually the Karens of Prince William and Loudoun counties swung it for Trumpkin.

No one is going to tell them what to do!

[lagomorph777]

9. Loudoun is one of the counties listed as not swinging GOP by much.

So please don't blame us. We're pretty blue.

[FBaggins]

17. This is the main reason that the OP is so nonsensical

Loudoun shifted from blue +25 to blue +11.

“Don’t blame us… we won here” will be poor comfort if 2022 matches that “not that much”.

[lagomorph777]

10. What did they do to get the old people to vote?

[rogue emissary]

15. He ran against CRT and used white fear of it

[lagomorph777]

19. The claim of the article is that CRT isn't it. So what is it?

[mackdaddy]

11. Major Fox Nuz watching demographic.

That and the backwoods dish watchers.

[JanMichael]

14. Raleigh/Durham is in Virginia? I missed that state line shift.

Otherwise interesting article.

[mahatmakanejeeves]

16. "the spill Raleigh-Durham market"

A tiny bit of their television marketing area is in Virginia.



Source: https://www.wral.com/wral-tv/image/3961670/

I guess the Republicans bought television advertising time on the Raleigh-Durham stations.

I'm in Alexandria, and I see ads for candidates in Maryland. I get one station here, WDVM, that gives me news from West Virginia.

[LiberalFighter]

18. The way he behaved was stupid leading to his defeat.