A turn in the Russian War in Ukraine nobody is talking about yet

[Joe Nation]

Everyone knows that Russia has a much larger military than Ukraine and that the Ukrainians have a lot more motivation to defend their homeland. Those factors have seen this war drag on much longer than Putin had initially expected. However, if things keep going as they are, Russia will eventually overrun the Ukrainian Capital and most of the country and this will become a gorilla war situation just as the Ukrainian fighters have promised. They will never give up the fight.

My question is at what point do these Ukrainian fights take the fight to the Russian Homeland? Right now, I see the reasons not to take such an action as it would be an escalation that Russia could use to justify their aggression. But, at some point, blowing up Russian cities will help to pull back troops from Ukraine to protect Russian cities. It would also help bring Putin to his knees if the Russian military and the citizens of Russia turned on Putin for his aggression in Ukraine.

Nobody is talking about this scenario, and I wonder at what point Ukraine decides to take the fight to Russia?

[Beetwasher.]

1. "Russia will eventually overrun the Ukrainian Capital..."

Says you. It's not looking that way from where I'm sitting.

[ShazzieB]

4. I agree.

It's not looking that way at all from where I sit.

And even if it did, the idea of Ukrainians taking the fight to the "Russian homeland" seems like a waste of resources to me.

[lagomorph777]

14. Yeah, I don't think it's headed that way.

However, if they get some long-range missiles, I can imagine Ukraine hitting Russian bases and supply lines inside Russia.

[Swede]

20. The siege of cities takes a long time at a phenominal cost.

nt

[Bev54]

22. And look at the few places the Russians did take, the Ukrainians have taken them back.

There is no certainty to Russia winning this war, at all.

[CanonRay]

24. Seems to me the only hope Russia has of winning

is to get Ukraine to surrender.

[Dawson Leery]

2. IF they do take Kiev,

Ukraine needs to run their own covert stealth forces to deal with Russkieland.

[Scrivener7]

3. This bunched someone's panties.

[relayerbob]

5. They have completely inadequate resources to take Kyif, much less hold the entire country

They have already struck at least one airbase within Russia.

[left-of-center2012]

6. Ukraine will use its resources inside Ukraine

[Bongo Prophet]

7. "Gorilla War"? Scary.

[lagomorph777]

15. Hah!

Spelling matters.

[uponit7771]

8. RA can no longer "overrun" UKR without filling fracture support, BTG and troops. RA is basically ...

... state sponsored mechanized terrorism now shooting at women, children and buildings.

They're not engaging UA regulars ... they can't

And with the new weapons coming in from NATO they're outlier towns they "hold" hostage are up shits creek

[Samrob]

9. Something I have been saying or asking for the longest.

And, are there any hidden resistance cells already inside Russia?

[Gore1FL]

10. If the attacks go to Russia, I suspect it will be terror attacks by those with nothing left.

I don't think Ukraine will the sponsor of the terror, but there are people with nothing to lose, but anger and a need to avenge.

Honestly, what I just wrote scares me for a lot of reasons.

[NeoGreen]

11. The only counter engagements Ukraine should consider...

...outside their border, should be to silence the artillery stationed in Belarus or Russia, or disrupt columns of troops/armor preparing to advance or resupply into Ukraine. Hopefully from anti-artillery in Ukraine, or if necessay, by air strikes.

Sending troops into other countries would be a mistake.

However, if Putin furter escalates the war above current levels, a reassessment should be conducted.

[Irish_Dem]

13. I agree with your assessment.

For the time being, yes.

If conditions on the ground change, then time to re-think strategies.

Edit to add: I don't think UKR can afford to open up new fronts in Russia. It has its hands full as it is.

[captain queeg]

12. Most posts miss the question. They share a long and mostly unprotected border

It’s something I mentioned right from the beginning. I don’t think Ukrainians will do any cross-border attacks while they are still doing relatively well. They’re taking the high road morally and have most of the worlds support. If they are defeated and a Russian puppet government installed, then the guerrilla war will take off. They’ll hit targets in Russia or those countries siding with Russia. I think Ukraine and it’s govt could lose but it’s not going to be much of a win for the Russians.

[dalton99a]

16. Ukrainians have every right to lob missiles at the Kremlin right now

Unfortunately they don't have such capability

[msfiddlestix]

17. No. That action would not serve Ukraine well, as that would make Ukraine a bad actor

and lose all the international support it has gained. It muddies the waters, paints a picture of a conflict between two bad actors.

[maxsolomon]

18. No one is talking about it because it's not going to happen.

Guerilla: a member of a small independent group taking part in irregular fighting, typically against larger regular forces.

From the Spanish Guero, War.

[obamanut2012]

19. 1. It is not "Gorilla," and 2. Russian literally cannot overrun anything

They don't have enough of anything: troops, vehicles, missiles, sundry materiel.

Good effort, though!!!!

[JHB]

21. "Tak(ing) the fight to the Russian homeland" isn't particularly feasible...

...unless you're talking about raids or strikes to wreck rail lines and bridges the Russians use to bring in supplies etc.

Ukraine is in no position to launch an offensive into Russia.

[EX500rider]

28. And maybe some hit & runs on airfields..make the Russians keep more troops in the rear...

...guarding stuff.

[Phoenix61]

23. I'm waiting to hear about weapons factories blowing up.

Those would be the most practical to get rid of and I don’t think the rest of the world would think twice about it.

[NNadir]

25. This sounds very much like the 1940 prediction that Britain was doomed.

They fought alone until June 22 1941, but survived via aid and attrition.

I think the prediction is garbage.

[Bernardo de La Paz]

26. Another post-and-run thread by an OP who doesn't want to engage in discussion

"Nobody is talking about this"

... not even the OP.

[Bucky]

27. I'd be more concerned about Russian false flag bombings within Russia

The rumors about Russia intelligence and being behind the allegedly Chechen terrorist bombings in the 2000s aren't entirely incredible